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Buy Emerging Market Property

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The former of course. DYOR :D

What do you mean? I understand the acronym but not the meaning behind it. I'm sure it is a good investment but so was BTL till a couple of year ago. It didn't mean we should all jump on the band wagon (for both ethical and financial reasons). Also I would avoid following investment advice broadcast on youtube. :blink:

R

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if you look at what happened in Japan and Korea when they industrialised then that is probably the best preview of what should happen to other emerging markets. Decoupling is real, massive investment in emerging markets is real, mobilisation of people to the cities is real, increasing food demand is real, increasing energy demand is real exactly the same as what happened in Japan and Korea. There is a very high likelihood that these realities will produce the same results in the current emerging market from an investment perspective that would have to be a good sign.

I was thinking the same point. A lot of EMs are Japan in the 60s not Japan in the 90s. They still have a heck of a long way to go before peaking in terms of both property and equities.

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if you look at what happened in Japan and Korea when they industrialised then that is probably the best preview of what should happen to other emerging markets. Decoupling is real, massive investment in emerging markets is real, mobilisation of people to the cities is real, increasing food demand is real, increasing energy demand is real exactly the same as what happened in Japan and Korea. There is a very high likelihood that these realities will produce the same results in the current emerging market from an investment perspective that would have to be a good sign.

It's all inevitable.

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I was thinking the same point. A lot of EMs are Japan in the 60s not Japan in the 90s. They still have a heck of a long way to go before peaking in terms of both property and equities.

Maybe they're not Japan at all, and Japan in whatever decade is irrelevant to their prospects.

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I'm investing plenty of my funds in emerging markets.

But I ain't buying their houses. It's bad enough Englishmen buying Welsh cottages, and we're only a little bit foreign to each other.

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But someone has to risk their capital in the provision of shelter to all these new people that absolutely must be sheltered.

No objection in principle to investing in housebuilders, property maintenance, etc.

(actually my emerging market investment is in managed funds, so it's not my decision where it goes).

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I wonder how emerging these markets will continue to be as they are all doing our jobs for less and we are having buy stuff on tick now?

I wouldn't worry they are doomed now. Nothing can flatten the prospects of an emergent economy better than a load of useless, vain tossers inflicting costs by buying up all the real estate; if only we had thought of this earlier. Having finished bleeding most of the western world into a white husk, the parasites now turn their attention elsewhere

Edited by Stars

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I wouldn't worry they are doomed now. Nothing can flatten the prospects of an emergent economy better than a load of useless, vain tossers inflicting costs by buying up all the real estate; if only we had thought of this earlier. Having finished bleeding most of the western world into a white husk, the parasites now turn their attention elsewhere

Bulgarian property doing nicely for you, is it?

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Whilst a different strategy, I was very impressed with those that went in a bought prime property in downtown BA when the Argentinean Peso crashed. They bought with US $, sold when the Peso recovered made a motza on the forex alone. If the peso didn't recover then they still had a reasonable buy and hold investment, not bad at all.

You are impressed by their ability to use the land tenure system to collect production without returning anything to producers?

Are you also impressed by people who embezzle old ladies?

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I find it quite amusing that some people think that investment in housing is somewhat immoral and also that it is a modern phenomenon.

The houses aren't the issue, the land is. Noltice that they didn't produce the land and it's value came from the work of producers they never compensated.

Meanwhile these guys had the balls to fly down their with their own hard earned US $ and risk it in buying real estate from people only too happy to sell it to them.

Which ignores all the people the deal impossed upon, who never consented

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All things being equal and if you ticked the boxes on your managed fund investment profile as medium risk the fund will have a 33% exposure to property.

Not that kind of managed fund!

But I can check ... H-L have a portfolio analysis tool. The total across my SIPP, ISA, and Fund&share accounts is ... Property 0.3%. Oh, and in the detailed breakdown I see some more categories:

Real Estate

Real Estate Investment & Services

Real Estate Holding & Development 1.9%

Real Estate Services 0.1%

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Retail REITs 0.2%

Industrial & Office REITs 0.2%

Hotel & Lodging REITs < 0.1%

If that looks low, then so is my exposure to every other sector I hold only through funds in the H-L portfolio.

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Id love to. Just people like Chavez have a habit of kicking investors out he doesnt like (ie any 'capitalist' foreigner) Lula says people with blue eyes cause all the worlds problems.

In a world that hates white people, metals seem the only safe option.

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Which sector do you have the greatest exposure to ?

Depends on where your analysis puts sectors. Tool says financials (which includes real estate), but that's because it's lumped investment trusts in there as well as actual financials. Otherwise technology, mainly 'cos of the huge gains made by ARM since I bought.

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so who are these uncompensated producers that the guy that bought the gaffs stitched up ?

People, other than the owner, who are responsible for the creation of value his real estate encloses

Waa that the willing buyer or the willing selller or some other individual ?

Well, If you are trading something that is / was actually created by an owner then there are only two people morally involved; buyer and seller (nobody else would have had access without them in any case, and so no third party has a legitimate gripe about price of access being high). In this case, however, you are trading a piece of space (land) from which other people are excluded by the imposition of law; this clearly isn't something either trader created and it also involves a whacking imposition / externality upon third parties.

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 Guys,  I have massive respect for Bill Bonner, he is a very talented writer and historian and his views are worth attention.

I tend to agree with him on Japanese shares, right now they stink and no one want to touch them and they are as cheap as you can imagine. Combine that with a large liquid market and they should be a good place to stick money you don't need in the next 10 years.

On developing market property I'd say this is much harder.  I've been to Vietnam, Egypt, Cambodia and in many of these places wealthy Arab investors or Chinese have bought up huge swathes of land and are not particularly doing much with them. I am assuming many are just there as long term investment as Bill suggested, hoping that something takes off in the next decade. That said a lot of these plots contain half finished properties (I am assuming this is an issue to do with the credit crunch and tax relief issues) and a lot are just sat their decaying.

So I am not so sure about the developing market property angle. It assumes these markets can achieve some high level of middle class affluence and that the gains haven't already been priced in. The typical model is buy a nice bit of beach front in the developing nation, stick on some condos and then charge western prices to westerners.  Unfortunately most aren't built to western standards and wouldn't survive the next earthquake - plus  you have to factor in political issues and corruption - so make sure of your title. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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 In this case, however, you are trading a piece of space (land) from which other people are excluded by the imposition of law; this clearly isn't something either trader created and it also involves a whacking imposition / externality upon third parties.

And in some nations these laws change at a flick of a bureaucrats pen.

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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