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desperate young

What Will The Next Intervention Be In The Housing Market?

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So what do we think it will be?

My prediction is nominal falls for 6 months and then price stabilisation whilst inflation catches up (including wage inflation IMO).

I have been reading this report on the market in the 1970s from York University, do not doubt they will try something big looking at all of the previous efforts.

HPC yes- Nominally IMO not what many here are hoping for, in real we will hit the jackpot. This is what we should all be hoping for the economic chaos if this does not happen will be as bad as the TFH describe.

It is not different this time they will only go one way if they can....

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So what do we think it will be?

My prediction is nominal falls for 6 months and then price stabilisation whilst inflation catches up (including wage inflation IMO).

I have been reading this report on the market in the 1970s from York University, do not doubt they will try something big looking at all of the previous efforts.

HPC yes- Nominally IMO not what many here are hoping for, in real we will hit the jackpot. This is what we should all be hoping for the economic chaos if this does not happen will be as bad as the TFH describe.

It is not different this time they will only go one way if they can....

The intervention has been and gone. It worked to an extent but as Faisel Islam says, there are no more bullets.

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The intervention has been and gone. It worked to an extent but as Faisel Islam says, there are no more bullets.

There's loads more bullets, all that is needed is for the competitive devaluation to keep going and it will.

My suggestion is buy one 1oz Gold coin for every $10k you owe on your mortgage, you may find your mortgage cleared sooner than expected.

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The intervention has been and gone. It worked to an extent but as Faisel Islam says, there are no more bullets.

Maybe, but I seriously doubt they will do nothing. They cannot be seen to be doing nothing. They will act, the degree to which it will work will vary but they will try. I think they will go for super QE next time and maybe some direct intervention in the housing market. This report from the Bank of England illustrates the value that they place on the housing market.

What happens if they do nothing? Int rates will rise not just due to BoE rate but also due to declining equity, this = mass home repossession and economic catastrophe. They would rather try something like more QE than just sit back and let this happen.

Edit: SPG

Edited by desperate young

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There's loads more bullets, all that is needed is for the competitive devaluation to keep going and it will.

My suggestion is buy one 1oz Gold coin for every $10k you owe on your mortgage, you may find your mortgage cleared sooner than expected.

Good suggestion, although I only got into earning reasonable money in 2008 so prefer silver ;) although I have only a small amount at the moment :(

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inflation is the answer, let's just say at 7% per annum half of all stirling debt will effectively be cleared in ten years so more quantitative easing to pay the bankers bonuses and the mp's expenses. The Chinese won't be happy about it though.

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So what do we think it will be?

My prediction is nominal falls for 6 months and then price stabilisation whilst inflation catches up (including wage inflation IMO).

I have been reading this report on the market in the 1970s from York University, do not doubt they will try something big looking at all of the previous efforts.

A couple of weeks ago I posted a link to a York university paper on voluntary repossessions.

I wonder if they have more stuff like this.

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The next intervention will work to the BEAR side - draconian-like restrictive lending rules imposed by Whitehall as a new wave of default and hits us over the next 24 months and forcing another round of bank failures.

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I love the assumption that this gov wants to stop prices falling. Ask yourselves:

What has happened to house prices since they've been in gov?

What have they done to avoid an hpc, let alone encurage hpi?

The bounce we saw was due to a desperate gov trying to win an election-its a long time before the next one..

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I love the assumption that this gov wants to stop prices falling. Ask yourselves:

What has happened to house prices since they've been in gov?

What have they done to avoid an hpc, let alone encurage hpi?

The bounce we saw was due to a desperate gov trying to win an election-its a long time before the next one..

Agreed, the intervention in 08/09 was an exception rather than the rule. There was certainly no intervention in the 90's crash when the Tories were in power. if anything they stoked the crash by raising interest rates (15% at peak I think) in a desperate bid to stay in the monetary union agreement. I think they will do a few superficial things maybe juggle tax breaks but only for appearance sake. The real loose cannon is the BOE, personally I think it should be brought back under government control.

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My suggestion is buy one 1oz Gold coin for every $10k you owe on your mortgage, you may find your mortgage cleared sooner than expected.

This is one of the best pieces of advice I have seen on here. Top marks Mikhail.

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Agreed, the intervention in 08/09 was an exception rather than the rule. There was certainly no intervention in the 90's crash when the Tories were in power. if anything they stoked the crash by raising interest rates (15% at peak I think) in a desperate bid to stay in the monetary union agreement. I think they will do a few superficial things maybe juggle tax breaks but only for appearance sake. The real loose cannon is the BOE, personally I think it should be brought back under government control.

They can't put up interest rates, it'll crash the housing market in double quick time, which will crash the economy and the banks, which will require more bailouts and a bigger deficit, which will crash the currency and cause inflation. So they must QE, which will crash the currency and cause inflation.

Buy gold.

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I love the assumption that this gov wants to stop prices falling. Ask yourselves:

What has happened to house prices since they've been in gov?

What have they done to avoid an hpc, let alone encurage hpi?

The bounce we saw was due to a desperate gov trying to win an election-its a long time before the next one..

I'd go with that. They must know the consequences of what they are doing. It's not like anyone thinking about the UK economy could overlook the housing market.

If there is a plan, then it has to be pain up front, get it out of the way and hope that there is some sort of real recovery come the next election

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Agreed, the intervention in 08/09 was an exception rather than the rule. There was certainly no intervention in the 90's crash when the Tories were in power. if anything they stoked the crash by raising interest rates (15% at peak I think) in a desperate bid to stay in the monetary union agreement. I think they will do a few superficial things maybe juggle tax breaks but only for appearance sake. The real loose cannon is the BOE, personally I think it should be brought back under government control.

Yet another person mixing 2 incidents up.

The HPC under the Tories in that era was from 1989 onwards. Yes, IR went up to 15% but had come down by the time they tried to stay in the ERM in Oct 1992. Rates went up 6% and down again in one day.

As for the gold suggestion, ooh yes we've all got 5 grand plus just knocking about to buy coins with.

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I am honestly expecting the Chancellor to stand up and announce the cuts and right at the end give something out to get the house market moving - probably a temporary cesstation of stamp duty.

regards

J

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If the tories wanted to keep house prices high at all cost, they'd hardly be lowering housing benefit. That is a bullet, fired directly at an already wounded BTL sector.

The next big twist will be mortgage interest rate rises.

;)

That'd be nice!

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If i remember correctly boy George asked mystic Merv to include house prices in to cpi as soon as possible ,if that is to be the case falling house price falls would be a must for the government and would help dilute the effect of the impending vat rise.And as previous post have suggested what have they done to prop up the market so far, from what i can see its been the exact opposite ,or is this just wishful thinking

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Link to Guardian story: George Osborne ready to back Bank of England on quantitative easing

This week's news from the Halifax of a 3.6% fall in house prices last month has triggered fears of a housing market crash and left many in the City convinced that the Bank will soon be asking the chancellor for permission to act.

QE=Support asset prices

Osborneā‰ Cojones

Edited by mikthe20

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So what do we think it will be?

My prediction is nominal falls for 6 months and then price stabilisation whilst inflation catches up (including wage inflation IMO).

So where do you imagine the wage inflation is going to come from?

The government could engineer an increase in public sector wages to the detriment of the deficit, but private sector wage rises would nulify the effect of competitive devaluation and would also have to be won in what I expect to be a higher unemployment scenario.

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Wage inflation nominal with currency inflation is real term wage cut. This could make UK more competitive, solve over valued houses and avoid damaging banks balance sheets. I don't think the governments steps so far have been too anti house prices, just against benefits including housing. To make up for this o expect targeted qe to support house prices specifically. What do u think?

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Actually they can cut interest rates, it is called qe, negative real interest rates.

the day we start seeing -ve interest rates in bank accounts in this country will be the same day that the run on banks will occur

I'm not talking about quantitative easing

Edited by theonlywayisdown

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  • 194 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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