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House Prices 'to Fall By 10%'

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http://money.uk.msn.com/msn-local/articles.aspx?cp-documentid=154861911

One in three Brits expects house prices to fall by as much as 10% in the next year, knocking £16,000 off the price of the average UK home.

The property market has proved remarkably resilient over the past year despite the economic gloom, rising almost 7% in the last 12 months, according to official Land Registry figures.

However, concerns over the impact of the government's public spending cuts, the hike in VAT and the proposed strict new mortgage lending rules have convinced a number of Brits that the revival will soon end.

A recent poll of almost 8,000 MSN Money users found that one in three (33%) expects prices to fall by between 0% and 10% in the coming year.

Interestingly, a quarter (25%) of respondents felt prices would remain largely unchanged, while a slightly larger number (26%) predicted they would actually rise, indicating there is widespread confusion about property's prospects.

A pessimistic 7% believes we're about to see a catastrophic crash, with prices falling more than 20% by next October. Given that the average home in England and Wales costs around £167,000 (according to the Land Registry), this would wipe at least £33,000 off its value.

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Amazing, 26% of people think prices will rise over the next year.

Its the VAT increase. VAT on houses will go up so the price will go up. I'm sure that's what they think :D

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Amazing, 26% of people think prices will rise over the next year.

When talking about the thick-as-pig-sh*t general populace 2/3rds of people is effectively "everyone" since at least 1/3rd are incapable of any coherent thought about anything. Seriously if you surveyed people on whether it was good idea to give teenagers free class A drugs you would 1/3rd of people supporting it.

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When talking about the thick-as-pig-sh*t general populace 2/3rds of people is effectively "everyone" since at least 1/3rd are incapable of any coherent thought about anything. Seriously if you surveyed people on whether it was good idea to give teenagers free class A drugs you would 1/3rd of people supporting it.

I'd support it. Then I'd know to buy mine from ;)

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So 49% think prices will fall.

Say half think prices will fall, a quarter think they'll be flat, and a quarter, increase.

Just noticed: "Not scientifically valid"... It may be readers opinion. Not representative really.

62F295F7A8FD8C81F69E636862D4C.PNG

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So 49% think prices will fall.

Say half think prices will fall, a quarter think they'll be flat, and a quarter, increase.

Just noticed: "Not scientifically valid"... It may be readers opinion. Not representative really.

62F295F7A8FD8C81F69E636862D4C.PNG

The figures basically suggest that only 1 in 4 buyers will be subject to the "must get on the ladder before prices rise again" motivation, and a good proportion of those are probably people who are too thick to have good enough jobs to be an any position to buy.

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The figures basically suggest that only 1 in 4 buyers will be subject to the "must get on the ladder before prices rise again" motivation, and a good proportion of those are probably people who are too thick to have good enough jobs to be an any position to buy.

Surely the odds of house prices remaining unchanged is miniscule!

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A pessimistic 7% believes we're about to see a catastrophic crash, with prices falling more than 20% by next October. Given that the average home in England and Wales costs around £167,000 (according to the Land Registry), this would wipe at least £33,000 off its value.

Left to it's own devices the "pessimistic 7%" would likely be nearer right come October 2011/early 2012 as the 2nd leg ought to be about a similar scale to the first leg. Will they leave it to it's own devices though.

I expect the current weakness to continue but there might be a bit of resistance at around the 2009 low (Halifax £155,000 approx.) before rapidly continuing further down.

Spring 2011 could be carnage when the "expected" spring bounce doesn't happen after the VIs winter talk up of the market.

Looking at the chart of the last crash there are similarities with the current one and if the last one is anything to go by then the next leg down is a good few months overdue. The scorched earth policy leading upto the general election really distorted the market but as the boom was longer then the bust will be longer as well and that long bust has been/will be caused in part by all the government intervention - as was the long boom.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-last-house-price-crash.php

Edited by billybong

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Surely the odds of house prices remaining unchanged is miniscule!

Thats a rather good point.

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Left to it's own devices the "pessimistic 7%" would likely be nearer right come October 2011/early 2012 as the 2nd leg ought to be about a similar scale to the first leg. Will they leave it to it's own devices though.

I expect the current weakness to continue but there might be a bit of resistance at around the 2009 low (Halifax £155,000 approx.) before rapidly continuing further down.

Spring 2010 could be carnage when the "expected" spring bounce doesn't happen after the VIs winter talk up of the market.

Looking at the chart of the last crash there are similarities with the current one and if the last one is anything to go by then the next leg down is a good few months overdue. The scorched earth policy leading upto the general election really distorted the market but as the boom was longer then the bust will be longer as well and that long bust has been/will be caused in part by all the government intervention - as was the long boom.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-last-house-price-crash.php

I would be interested to see if there is resistance at the lows level as well.

However, i wonder whether the cash buyers have all shot their bolt in the last 18 months...

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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