Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Mikhail Liebenstein

Bank Shares Could Collapse Again

Recommended Posts

Over the last few months the UK banks seem to have had the benefit of high share prices, no doubt driven by further QE and ConDem noises that cuts will be made which many suppose frees up more taxpayers loot for the banks.

However, I am wondering if we have now hit a banking top and could see further retrenchment, as a result I have offloaded my Lloyds shares for a tidy profit at 75p, and whilst they have been up an down since and generally in that range, I do see the following warning signs:

1) Banks appear to be trying to offload risk assets at a pace:Link

2) Said assets seem to be falling in value:  Link

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected?  I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation.  remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last few months the UK banks seem to have had the benefit of high share prices, no doubt driven by further QE and ConDem noises that cuts will be made which many suppose frees up more taxpayers loot for the banks.

However, I am wondering if we have now hit a banking top and could see further retrenchment, as a result I have offloaded my Lloyds shares for a tidy profit at 75p, and whilst they have been up an down since and generally in that range, I do see the following warning signs:

1) Banks appear to be trying to offload risk assets at a pace:Link

2) Said assets seem to be falling in value: Link

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected? I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation. remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

course, all that MBS they have....just dropped 3.6%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last few months the UK banks seem to have had the benefit of high share prices, no doubt driven by further QE and ConDem noises that cuts will be made which many suppose frees up more taxpayers loot for the banks.

However, I am wondering if we have now hit a banking top and could see further retrenchment, as a result I have offloaded my Lloyds shares for a tidy profit at 75p, and whilst they have been up an down since and generally in that range, I do see the following warning signs:

1) Banks appear to be trying to offload risk assets at a pace:Link

2) Said assets seem to be falling in value: Link

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected? I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation. remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

Yeah, I've posted a couple of threads on RBS being squeezed into selling by the guy who runs the asset protection scheme. On the face of it their credit card liabilities look horrendous, but that could be eclipsed by liabilities on secured lending if house price gains from 2009 are wiped out and the crash continues even at a slow pace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last few months the UK banks seem to have had the benefit of high share prices, no doubt driven by further QE and ConDem noises that cuts will be made which many suppose frees up more taxpayers loot for the banks.

However, I am wondering if we have now hit a banking top and could see further retrenchment, as a result I have offloaded my Lloyds shares for a tidy profit at 75p, and whilst they have been up an down since and generally in that range, I do see the following warning signs:

1) Banks appear to be trying to offload risk assets at a pace:Link

2) Said assets seem to be falling in value:  Link

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected?  I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation.  remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

Liquidity is one thing, solvency another. I don't think liquidity is an issue - you can always get cash from the lender of last resort; that's what they are there for - but solvency is. It's my view that, on any reasonable valuation criteria, most banks are insolvent and have been for some time. That's one reason why they've been reluctant to repossess property; if they did they'd have to take a value lower than book and this would cast doubt on the book that remained ie on their valuation criteria.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected?  I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation.  remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

It's clear they will just print money and monetise debt with it, buying the banks toxic crap at or close to full notional value.

I think you did the right thing to take profits on your bank shares simply because we are heading into unknown and choppy waters but I do feel that the banks could well be the big 'winners' out of all of this - taking a bigger slice of the ever decreasing pie because they get first bite of the cherry with respect to the freshly printed cash.

I think they will do everything they can to avoid actually nationalising the banks for reasons of saving political face. They will just monetise more and more of their debt via 'special liquidity schemes'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's clear they will just print money and monetise debt with it, buying the banks toxic crap at or close to full notional value.

I think you did the right thing to take profits on your bank shares simply because we are heading into unknown and choppy waters but I do feel that the banks could well be the big 'winners' out of all of this - taking a bigger slice of the ever decreasing pie because they get first bite of the cherry with respect to the freshly printed cash.

I think they will do everything they can to avoid actually nationalising the banks for reasons of saving political face.  They will just monetise more and more of their debt via 'special liquidity schemes'.

I've been reading Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand, all the bankers started reading it recently as they felt it some how justified them making huge bonuses because of their talent.

What they seem to have failed to notice is that the book is really an industrial economic novel and the wealth creators are the people who make things, the engineers etc - the bankers are just the same as the collectivist bureaucrats in the book. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last few months the UK banks seem to have had the benefit of high share prices, no doubt driven by further QE and ConDem noises that cuts will be made which many suppose frees up more taxpayers loot for the banks.

However, I am wondering if we have now hit a banking top and could see further retrenchment, as a result I have offloaded my Lloyds shares for a tidy profit at 75p, and whilst they have been up an down since and generally in that range, I do see the following warning signs:

1) Banks appear to be trying to offload risk assets at a pace:Link

2) Said assets seem to be falling in value:  Link

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected?  I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation.  remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

the bank shares are as worthless as Marconi and Energis shares in 2001, tradeable bounces all the way along for sure, but since 2007 i cant see any of the UK ones not going to nought p except maybe HSBC. The current banking system is going down one way or the other via default and once down it wont be coming back for decades due to a completely new regulatory framework (probably based around Narrow banking) but these things require collapse before being implemented as implementing them before is collapse

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last few months the UK banks seem to have had the benefit of high share prices, no doubt driven by further QE and ConDem noises that cuts will be made which many suppose frees up more taxpayers loot for the banks.

However, I am wondering if we have now hit a banking top and could see further retrenchment, as a result I have offloaded my Lloyds shares for a tidy profit at 75p, and whilst they have been up an down since and generally in that range, I do see the following warning signs:

1) Banks appear to be trying to offload risk assets at a pace:Link

2) Said assets seem to be falling in value: Link

Will the banks take a haircut or are we going to see more liquidity injected? I could see RBS being fully nationalised at the end of this, and perhaps Lloyds taking another dilution, and Barclays going bust under the severe interest loan they took out to avoid nationalisation. remember than banks need to roll debt over big style in 2011.

What are you going to do with the money from the sale?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.