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camem'

June 2011 House Price Future

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For anyone thinking of buying about mid next year : this is IGIndex's futures price for a house in Jun 2011 (the scale's a bit odd, but basically it hovered around 160K for months, then hit the falls in this graph which covers the last week or so).

The measure used is the halifax official SA figure. The scale is thousands of pounds (that's thousands of pounds you won't have to spend any more if you're a potential FTB)

So the June 2011 price is already predicting 7% falls on the current actual price (162K) in nominal terms (so any inflation makes the real falls bigger) - and today it's been losing several hundred pounds an hour :)

98371151.jpg

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For anyone thinking of buying about mid next year : this is IGIndex's futures price for a house in Jun 2011 (the scale's a bit odd, but basically it hovered around 160K for months, then hit the falls in this graph which covers the last week or so).

The measure used is the halifax official SA figure. The scale is thousands of pounds (that's thousands of pounds you won't have to spend any more if you're a potential FTB)

So the June 2011 price is already predicting 7% falls on the current actual price (162K) in nominal terms (so any inflation makes the real falls bigger) - and today it's been losing several hundred pounds an hour :)

98371151.jpg

That is fun. It would be even more fun if the FSA investigate the market move in the day preceding the data release if I'm viewing your graph right. While other asset markets tread water or rise in anticipation of more QE the house price future starts plummeting? Looks like someone knew something.

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Does anyone know how to trade in HP futures. If we can purchase a contract to buy at 2011 future prices then we guarantee to get a 7% discount for the cost of the contract. That takes the risk out of waiting to see what happens.

If prices fall further than this we lose the cost of the contract but gain through price falls, if prices rise or are flat we gain from selling the contract.

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Does anyone know how to trade in HP futures. If we can purchase a contract to buy at 2011 future prices then we guarantee to get a 7% discount for the cost of the contract. That takes the risk out of waiting to see what happens.

If prices fall further than this we lose the cost of the contract but gain through price falls, if prices rise or are flat we gain from selling the contract.

sure, you can set up an igindex account and trade on the June 2011 price now. Some people have already bought this morning.

The spread is currently 151.0 / 153.8. So if you think the price will stay up you can put as much money as you like behind that(although you wouldn't be able to use it as a house deposit at the same time of course). Igindex take their cut though - you have to buy at 153.8, so you need to believe that the sell price (151) will rise back above that to break even.

I almost 'sold' at 160 a few weeks ago, wish I had now of course

Edited by camem'

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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