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WageslaveX14

Halifax -3.6% Good News.

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brilliant

ive been saying for ages UK would fall from now till 2012 and bring further big falls to the UK with it

this is the start

what a drop in what is usually one of the most buoyant months

brilliant news for all FTBers everywhere

Edited by getdoon_weebobby

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Good news indeed.

But aren't Halifax a much smaller player in the market than Nationwide? Also, as is often said when this index is +ve, transactions are low and this combined with low numbers the stats can be easily skewed in either direction.

It may trigger a downward spiral, but I'm keeping calm until it goes down for the 3rd month in a row.

Annual change is +2.6%, so I'm not going to think nice thoughts until the yoy goes negative. There have been many false dawns with the crash. However, this is still very welcome news - esp the headlines that it generates.

Edited by ravedave

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A similar thought to one I had about the bottom of the capitulation element of the HPC cycle. Is the bottom so low due to the only sales being by shrewd buyers/desperate sellers or is it just that only the cheaper less-to-fall houses sell and skew the figures? Is there data on housing sales and types for the last bottom of HPC cycle?

Good question.

I looked for this sort of info before. The Nationwide is the best source and had a better share of the market at that time.

Certainly you are right. Up to this stage of the crash the majority of houses that were selling were the lower priced houses. The middle market could not move as re-sellers were too slow to adjust to the newbuild prices. New build looked cheap compared to the resale market. Now Nationwide and Halifax tell us that they band the results to help offset the effects of increased volume in particular sectors, or as in this case reduced activity in all the other sectors. I am quite sure they can do this but we are all unsure as to what extent, particularly in low volumes how successful it is. Secondly Halifax and Nationwide only report on the sales that use their own mortgages. Each lender targets different sectors and both Nationwide and Nationwide would have been particularly active in the new build/ low cost sectors. Ulster Bank has now joined them. First time buyers, by definition enter the market at the lower rungs of the ladder. There are always exceptions and the definition of a first time buyer is someone who has no house to sell. As we have discussed before this definition is very open to others who previously owned and sold. So the reports can again be effected by the particular products they happen to be selling and explains why the Halifax/Nationwide report the average price in NI to be about £130k, whilst UUJ and Gov reports placing that same average to be about £160k. They both show similar drops and trends, apart from a few blips here and their (mostly on the upward side).

I would start here.

Nationwide

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I am still not seeing the expected drops which many on here predict in the areas I am looking to purchase. I feel that further drops will be small but that prices are more likely to stagnate for a period of time. However, as we have no visibility of the actual selling price I cannot be sure of where the market is currently.

My gut feeling is that the drops are due to lower end properties (terraces in poorer areas bought as BTL), some apartments and high end properties. It would seem to me that the middle tier (semi-detached 3 bed family homes, etc) are either holding value relatively well or not selling.

Thinking about this further BTL's and apartments were mostly investments so it stands to reason that those who foresee themselves with financial difficulties will offload them ASAP. High price properties have a significant portion of their price based on desirabilty rather than anything in 'real terms'. Hence they drop as well.

Middle ground properties are mostly peoples primary homes so movement here will not be as active. Home owners will tighten their belts and sit tight rather than accepting perceived below market prices. Basically, if they don't need to move for financial or work reasons then they will sit tight. Only when the market starts to settle will this type of property become active in any amount of numbers.

Yes there are plenty on the market, but I get the feeling that many of these are just testing the water and not 100% serious sellers.

Edited by ravedave

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I am still not seeing the expected drops which many on here predict in the areas I am looking to purchase. I feel that further drops will be small but that prices are more likely to stagnate for a period of time. However, as we have no visibility of the actual selling price I cannot be sure of where the market is currently.

My gut feeling is that the drops are due to lower end properties (terraces in poorer areas bought as BTL), some apartments and high end properties. It would seem to me that the middle tier (semi-detached 3 bed family homes, etc) are either holding value relatively well or not selling.

Thinking about this further BTL's and apartments were mostly investments so it stands to reason that those who foresee themselves with financial difficulties will offload them ASAP. High price properties have a significant portion of their price based on desirabilty rather than anything in 'real terms'. Hence they drop as well.

Middle ground properties are mostly peoples primary homes so movement here will not be as active. Home owners will tighten their belts and sit tight rather than accepting perceived below market prices. Basically, if they don't need to move for financial or work reasons then they will sit tight. Only when the market starts to settle will this type of property become active in any amount of numbers.

Yes there are plenty on the market, but I get the feeling that many of these are just testing the water and not 100% serious sellers.

People talk about the market dropping for the last 36 or so months.

When you look at it the market dropped a massive 40% in the first 20 months (down to £135k). For the last 18 months the prices have bounced up and down and is back to £130k, 4% drop in roughly the same time. [nationwide figures]. So in one 20 month period we dropped roughly 40% and in the following 20 month period we dropped 4%. S to say that the falls have continued, whilst technically correct is far from a true picture. Looking back at this help you to see, to a certain extent where the market is. Looking forward over the next 18 months is a more difficult task. The budget this week and the following 2 budgets will shape the landscape for a generation. The market is (and has been for 6 mths) holding its breath to see what plays out in the coming days. Again it will not be the fact and figures but the media's opinion and sentiment on where we are going that will have the greatest effect going forward.

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People talk about the market dropping for the last 36 or so months.

When you look at it the market dropped a massive 40% in the first 20 months (down to £135k). For the last 18 months the prices have bounced up and down and is back to £130k, 4% drop in roughly the same time. [nationwide figures]. So in one 20 month period we dropped roughly 40% and in the following 20 month period we dropped 4%. S to say that the falls have continued, whilst technically correct is far from a true picture. Looking back at this help you to see, to a certain extent where the market is. Looking forward over the next 18 months is a more difficult task. The budget this week and the following 2 budgets will shape the landscape for a generation. The market is (and has been for 6 mths) holding its breath to see what plays out in the coming days. Again it will not be the fact and figures but the media's opinion and sentiment on where we are going that will have the greatest effect going forward.

the trend is your friend

and the trend coming off the big spike is still down albeit at a far reduced rate

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the trend is your friend

and the trend coming off the big spike is still down albeit at a far reduced rate

Alot of people on the way up lived off the 'trend is their friend'. we all know where that ended. Trends are a great tool and we love them. Especially when that trend is showing what we want them to show. "Houses only go up, you know".

Will the trend over the last 18 months be repeated and after another 18 months show another 3.8% fall from present? Impossible to say. Trends can change.

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Alot of people on the way up lived off the 'trend is their friend'. we all know where that ended. Trends are a great tool and we love them. Especially when that trend is showing what we want them to show. "Houses only go up, you know".

Will the trend over the last 18 months be repeated and after another 18 months show another 3.8% fall from present? Impossible to say. Trends can change.

the end of the 'trend' on the way up was so obvious because of a massive spike (NI), as predicted on this very forum at the top

look at cycles, look at the 'shake out' after the spike, look at previous corrections but most of all DYOR!

edit - let's have some predictions shall we? then we can come back and see who's right

here's mine:

nivsuk-1.gif

edit - red UK / blue NI only (natwide nominal data - and remeber that peeps nominal data!)

2nd edit - clarity

in answer to BB's question, the current NI Avg. HP according to Natwide Quarterly data is £130877

i reckon (based on the previous data cycle) that we will see an ultimate low in the range of £100,000 - £110,000 within the next three to four years.

anyone else care to put a figure on it?

Edited by p.p.

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It is difficult to predict what will happen in the housing market for two reasons. First, the government is doing everything it can to prevent house price depreciation, including literally giving the banks money to provide mortgages through the SLS. Second, some people have money and almost every other asset looks overvalued or plain risky at the moment. At least with houses you possess something of value. For these reasons i suspect house prices will not dip by more than 10%. However, most of the buyers will be investors rather than first time buyers and they will be buying distressed stock.

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I think I've just come.

YES YES YES :D

brilliant ive been saying for ages UK would fall from now till 2012 and bring further big falls to the UK with it

this is the start what a drop in what is usually one of the most buoyant months

brilliant news for all FTBers everywhere

Yeeha ... :):D

I wonder if they will be as quick to mention this on the radio news as they were to talk up the Nationwides report saying they had risen.

there is bound to be volatility on small volumes - the quarterly figures will give a better picture.

LMAO......... Not much talk in the first few post of the thread about "small volumes" . Housepricecrash classic!

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S.s you still looking at the fantastic yields in those slum houses in ballymena? You know the highly desirable areas of ballykeel.

Me no... but a mate of mine bought a wee 3 bed semi for £65k in Gracehill.

He rents it out to a wee single mum who qualifies for the 3 room rate including rates of £115.76 a week. Works out at £6019.52 pa (9.2% Gross yield)

Slum houses is a good quote, the next thing you'll be telling me is houses built for social housing are not suitable for those renting on housing benefit. Classic!

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LMAO......... Not much talk in the first few post of the thread about "small volumes" . Housepricecrash classic!

Whilst the latest Halifax report shows a slight house price increase of 1.8% during October, the overall drop in the last quarter has been 1.2% sparking suspicions that house price trends are still on a downward spiral.

The mortgage lender reported that the average house price is now down to just £164,919.

According to Halifax, these figures provide an accurate indication of underlying trends in house prices. They expressed how the odd increase isn’t a true indication of a recovering market.

Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis advised: “An increase in the number of properties available for sale in recent months, together with a decline in demand, has put some downward pressure on prices in recent months.”

Mr. Ellis expects interest rates to stay low for some time to come in order for mortgages to become more affordable. He said: “Low rates and stable employment levels are benefiting homeowners.”

Howard Archer of HIS Global Insight reiterated that such a small doesn’t make much difference to the widely believed prediction that house prices will decrease between now. He said that “there may well be significant volatility around an overall gradually declining trend”.

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S.s you still looking at the fantastic yields in those slum houses in ballymena? You know the highly desirable areas of ballykeel.

rude to laugh but can't help it :lol:

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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