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Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%!

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As a confirmed lurker for years and only recently joining, I felt the sudden urge to break my silence and MAKE A POST after skipping round the office all morning.

Now to read all 26 pages.

Even if it is due to a change in policy, it won't matter to peoples sentiments when they see it splashed across the news - Biggest Percentage fall ever... whoop!

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SKY NEWS - BREAKING NEWS

Interest Rates kept at 0.5%

However, they still haven't mentioned house prices :ph34r:

Holding IR no longer effective. House prices went up briefly and is now falling. The low IR bought time, that is all. The only way is up (IR that is).

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A 3.6% change due to sentiment looks unrealistic to me, this looks more like a policy decision within the bank.

Yes, I don't think we should get carried away with this figure, it is a statistical blip and brings the Halifax into line with the Nationwide three-monthly figure.

I hope not, -3.6% per month for the next couple of years would do very nicely.

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You lot are getting excited at just the stocking fillers - we haven't even got to the main presents yet. The biggest property bubble in history will also have the biggest crash. This is literally just the beginning for all the reasons that have been listed on here countless times. Hold on tight as this one is going down fast. I can't wait to see the figures come in after the emergency budget, then Christmas and then New Year.

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So if you had a stash of £150k, you've effectively just been handed back roughly £6k of lost interest on said stash on the basis of ONE MONTHS fall.

Nice. B)

I would imagine theres are quite a few STRrs slightly rethinking their positions today.

Perhaps we meek ones dont need to be flushed from our comfort zones after all.

Got gold? Dont need to bother now.

Would have been nice to be in 2 years ago, but why ride that bubble?

Just sit tight, things are converging nicely. :)

Keep your job though readers........ :ph34r:

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YoY should be negative by Christmas. Then the fun will really begin. It's like 2007 all over again, except this time they can't cut rates.

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Since Nationwide was up last month and HaliLloyds is down and their indexes are based on approvals, I'm now pretty sure the most likely cause is that HaliLloyds has changed their mortgage underwriting policy in the last month. There was talk of "no more IO mortgages" and limited total BTL lending per person at Lloyds recently as examples.

A 3.6% change due to sentiment looks unrealistic to me, this looks more like a policy decision within the bank.

Why would a policy change at the bank, to limit IO mortgages and/or restrict total BTL lending, affect their House Price Index? If they don't lend on a property, it doesn't affect its price. The borrower just goes somewhere else to get their head in a noose.

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I'm not following the indices that closely but is it possible that the -3.6% was the minimum reported fall required to match the other index over the quarter? This suggests to me that while the index is manipulated as ever (with all its low volume noise), there is a dam-break potential collapse yet to come in the numbers which can only be delayed, not prevented. I'd guess manipulation can only be sustained for one more quarter's figures, or perhaps this was it.

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have nothing to add.jsut want my ugly face on this thread for posterity's sake.

I am a fat baaasterd.

Ponzi has trenchfoot and it's beginning to affect his mobility.

Ponzi has just said we should go on without him, best shoot him now.... :)

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Rises are slowing in aus though aren't they. Maybe you're just several months behind the UK?

Prices in Aus are going backwards now , have been for 2-3 months at least

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0.4

-1.6

1.0

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

0.7

0.4

-3.6

Total Halifax HP"I" for 2010 is -3.9% suddenly the interest on cash in the bank seems very attractive.

judging by those figures it's unlikely the next months figures will be a greater drop

what may happen is people think it's an overcorrection and prices will decline -0.1 through -0.9 instead of the massive drop seen here

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Welcome back SoR...

I think the rises have been upsetting everyone on here - it's been dragging me down and because of all the denial and hype in the media the misses has been desperate to buy... We want to start a family soon and would ideally like to own soon afterwards so it's great news that this may be starting to happen! It's early days - just one month's figure - but maybe, just maybe, it's the start of what we have all been patiently waiting for!

~S~

:blink::blink:

House prices would enter freefall with an IR increase :P

I think they already have

So if you had a stash of £150k, you've effectively just been handed back roughly £6k of lost interest on said stash on the basis of ONE MONTHS fall.

Nice. B)

I would imagine theres are quite a few STRrs slightly rethinking their positions today.

Perhaps we meek ones dont need to be flushed from our comfort zones after all.

Got gold? Dont need to bother now.

Would have been nice to be in 2 years ago, but why ride that bubble?

Just sit tight, things are converging nicely. :)

Keep your job though readers........ :ph34r:

Indeed, don't mean to put a dampner on things but what good is 4% monthly falls if you dont have a job :(

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Lets have a look at the various things that can affect house prices.

1) Mortgage availability - Much reduced. The banks are getting ready for the ending of the SLS, so they have less money to lend. They are, as a result demanding bigger deposits, proof of income, and tougher valuations.

2) The FSA finally appears to be taking liar loans away from the marketplace.

3) Private sector wages and Public sector wages appear to be frozen on the whole.

But on the plus side for houses we still have,

a ) very low interest rates.

b ) high net immigration

c ) lots of social security benefits that keep people who cant afford it in housing

d ) a reluctance by banks to evict families from homes they cannot afford.

Waiting in the wings we have stable employment, which could all change as the public sector receives an axe.

I cant see how b ) above is going to change, but a ) c) and d ) could change very quickly.

This Halifax Flash crash is the Start of the Beginning.

Sorry the biggest influence (for me) on house prices is job security. end of

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But, as has been pointed out here ad nauseam, if the house price crash actually happens, the economy will go down the pan and a lot of people will lose their job.

Only if they are not creating wealth and adding value in a sustainably profitable enterprise. Oh wait...

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YoY should be negative by Christmas. Then the fun will really begin. It's like 2007 all over again, except this time they can't cut rates.

That's a very good point Van. The BOE have shot their last bolt and now have to watch the carnage. This will be a monster crash, just like Spain, USA and Ireland. :)

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Really? Says who?

Probably not worth hijacking this thread for the debate, thought.

How about starting a new one with your source data?

Please no. There is already an epic thread about Aussie land "facing its demons."

When I've completely lost the will to live, I might take the time to read all of it.blink.gif

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I have to admit I was getting fed up and conspiring to buy by Crimbo.

I must have been one of the last bears to turn ever so slightly bullish (Mrs.Bear gettng fed up).

I think I might buy some gold now.

:lol:

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  • 220 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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