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Realistbear

I M F: Stop Austerity If Any Signs Of Pain Emerge

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-warns-uk-cuts-must-stop-if-growth-slows-tele-d8509b32a2d6.html?x=0

IMF warns UK cuts must stop if growth slows
Jeremy Warner and Philip Aldrick in Washington, 17:36, Wednesday 6 October 2010
Britain's Coalition government would have to revisit its plans for deep spending cuts if growth substantially disappoints, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

So, no austerity then. All back to normal. We are no longer going to have to be in it together.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-warns-uk-cuts-must-stop-if-growth-slows-tele-d8509b32a2d6.html?x=0

IMF warns UK cuts must stop if growth slows
Jeremy Warner and Philip Aldrick in Washington, 17:36, Wednesday 6 October 2010
Britain's Coalition government would have to revisit its plans for deep spending cuts if growth substantially disappoints, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

So, no austerity then. All back to normal. We are no longer going to have to be in it together.

And how exactly would the IMF "enforce" this warning?

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There is some sense behind it, the austerity measures are about balancing the books - paying back debt.

If you cut too far, too quickly, you end up with lower (perhaps negative) growth, which in turn makes you likely to need to borrow even more.

Like so many things in life, it's a balancing act.

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There is some sense behind it, the austerity measures are about balancing the books - paying back debt.

If you cut too far, too quickly, you end up with lower (perhaps negative) growth, which in turn makes you likely to need to borrow even more.

Like so many things in life, it's a balancing act.

Rock and hard place.

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I think its more a case of our cuts would harm other countries more than the harm we would experience if we didnt cut to hard and fast.

Its a bit like leaving a political vacuum in a country can cause it to implode. Thats the risk and some countries couldnt handle a drop off of UK consumer purchases.

The UK is too integral to the global economy (treasure island et al). Our cuts can also be interpreted as a power play. Its a very clever game of chess.

From the article:

"The remarks were generic, said Mr Blanchard, adding that they applied to all advanced economies, not just the UK."

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You only have to look at the other stories on the IMF, they cant seem to make their mind up from one week to another. :)

The IMF have many different economists, some are purely there to serve as cheerleaders to govt policy, they get to write happy clappy stories based on official govt statistics. You then have other more pragmatic economists who may write closer to the truth but they can't be too harsh because national govts might get a bit upset and sack them.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-warns-uk-cuts-must-stop-if-growth-slows-tele-d8509b32a2d6.html?x=0

IMF warns UK cuts must stop if growth slows
Jeremy Warner and Philip Aldrick in Washington, 17:36, Wednesday 6 October 2010
Britain's Coalition government would have to revisit its plans for deep spending cuts if growth substantially disappoints, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

So, no austerity then. All back to normal. We are no longer going to have to be in it together.

...after praising the planned measures it's 'cover our own back time' for the IMF.....their credibility must be heading for zero...... :rolleyes:

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‘If the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.’

John Major. (1989)

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The IMF has been by far the main body pushing for austerity. If they are blinking on that, then it is a big change indeed.

Remember it has been IMF advice to implement austerity in many nations like Greece and Lithuania already.

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There is some sense behind it, the austerity measures are about balancing the books - paying back debt.

If you cut too far, too quickly, you end up with lower (perhaps negative) growth, which in turn makes you likely to need to borrow even more.

Like so many things in life, it's a balancing act.

Excuse my ignorance, but it would seem to make sense that after a period of unprecedented growth, you need to let off a bit of steam on the downside... maybe in the form of "negative growth", however laughable that expression is.

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Someone somewhere is going to lose out on every pound of austerity. Define pain, is it millions of middle class parents who suddenly cant afford their life style absent child benefits?

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Someone somewhere is going to lose out on every pound of austerity. Define pain, is it millions of middle class parents who suddenly cant afford their life style absent child benefits?

Due to huge debt levels even the wealthy are living on the edge. Loss of £60 a week might be the tippng point.

Judgment day has arrived I think.

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There is some sense behind it, the austerity measures are about balancing the books - paying back debt.

If you cut too far, too quickly, you end up with lower (perhaps negative) growth, which in turn makes you likely to need to borrow even more.

Like so many things in life, it's a balancing act.

To be honest, from the numbers I've seen, the big element - the one that actually is out of control - is pensions. The other huge element is tax avoidance, often in large chunks (I believe Vodaphone was let off £5 billion the other week..)

Progressively hiking the pension age - into the 70s - or making it so that the later you claimed it the more you got will probably have to happen. Hiring more tax inspectors (instead of making 'efficiency savings' which cost about 10x the money saved) would also help.

However, since the Tories are bankrolled by serial tax avoiders and voted for by pensioners, these areas will mysteriously stay off the radar.

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To be honest, from the numbers I've seen, the big element - the one that actually is out of control - is pensions. The other huge element is tax avoidance, often in large chunks (I believe Vodaphone was let off £5 billion the other week..)

Progressively hiking the pension age - into the 70s - or making it so that the later you claimed it the more you got will probably have to happen. Hiring more tax inspectors (instead of making 'efficiency savings' which cost about 10x the money saved) would also help.

However, since the Tories are bankrolled by serial tax avoiders and voted for by pensioners, these areas will mysteriously stay off the radar.

Pensions are slowly being addressed:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152345

Regarding tax avoidance, I agree there is a huge problem at the corporate level. But when even the Inland Revenue are in on the offshore avoidance japes, you know it's part of the establishment:

http://www.snowdonconsultants.com/uk_tax_buildings_sold_offshore_for_leaseback_via_george_soros.html

I think the last government have been turning a blind eye to cases like Vodafone, giving them a nudge and a wink. Of course, when the coffers were full they could afford to do this. Now the government has changed and the financial situation is a little more precarious, I think we could see a change of direction.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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