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Cuts Threaten To Knock Recovery As Jobs 'flatline'

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/cuts-threaten-to-knock-recovery-as-jobs-flatline-2098743.html

The British economy is facing a sharp slowdown during the third quarter, with a possible contraction arriving at the end of the year.

Experts are forecasting that, as with the emergency Budget in June, the Government's spending review itself on 20 October threatens to erode business and household confidence still further – long before any cuts come into effect. Fears are also growing that the UK will witness a "jobless recovery".

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets today and will announce its latest decision on rates and quantitative easing tomorrow. No move is expected his month, and a three-way split on direction is predicted. As other central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan ease monetary policy still further pressure is growing on the MPC to resume QE next month, to coincide with its next Inflation Report.

In its latest survey of sentiment in the services sector – comprising some 70 per cent of the economy – the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply and the Markit research group said that business confidence had improved, but "remained historically low". Input price inflation is weighing on profits and uncertainty about the cuts is also "undermining sales growth".

Overall, the Cips/Markit index rose to 52.8 in September, a jump on the 51.3 reading the previous month, but it is still some way below its pre-recession norms of around 56. Figures above 50 presage expansion. Exports were looking relatively upbeat, but new orders pointed in the other direction. More worryingly, if trends in manufacturing and construction are added to give a picture of the economy as a whole, Cips/Markit says that a marked deterioration in the economy is likely.

The Cips report said that GDP growth "weakened sharply" in the third quarter, with the outlook "scarred by weak confidence, subdued order book growth, job cuts and austerity". Growth of just 0.4 per cent to 0.5 per cent is predicted, down from the 1.2 per cent bounce-back in April to June. The last three months of the year, said Cips, are "set for further weak growth as confidence remains in the doldrums". "Falling private-sector employment adds to recovery worries," it added.

Chris Williamson, the chief economist at Markit, said: "The risk of a slide back into contraction has risen, but growth in the fourth quarter could still go either way: businesses appear to be in a 'wait and see' mood.

That last sentence is genius, you couldn't sit any more on the fence.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11479231

The number of job vacancies grew last month, but at the slowest rate in almost a year, a survey of recruitment firms has suggested.

The findings of the latest survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) suggest a continued weakening in the UK jobs market.

The number of people appointed to permanent jobs in September also grew by its slowest pace in 12 months.

That has affected pay, with wage inflation at a 10-month low.

Kevin Green, the REC's chief executive, warned that the figures indicated the jobs market could be heading for its own "double dip".

It can only be the recovery.

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I'm sure it will all work out fine and if not Merv will quickly print up some fresh money and save us all...

Just remember, the last thing we want right now are house prices falling.

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Cuts Threaten To Knock Recovery As Jobs 'flatline'

Well spending 13% pa more than we earn, facing a Greece style of the financial meltdown and indebting our children surely does not help recovery at all ...

Or are you suggesting the opposite?

This is a very childish labour style propaganda .... :(

What is a 3% growth if you just borrowed 13% ??? Only Labour can call it the recovery ...

Edited by Damik

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Well spending 13% pa more than we earn, facing a Greece style of the financial meltdown and indebting our children surely does not help recovery at all ...

Or are you suggesting the opposite?

This is a very childish labour style propaganda .... :(

What is a 3% growth if you just borrowed 13% ??? Only Labour can call it the recovery ...

i bet if derivatives were banned then you wouldn't have to have such a disparity between growth in borrowing and growth in GDP, because the bankstas wouldn't be shoving it all into the Casino, sorry City, of London.

Better still, get rid of debt based money altogether. What exactly are we borrowing at the moment? Fiat money printed by banks with nothing to back it.

The government could do that itself without paying the interest to the global financiers.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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