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Perceived Safety Of Cash And Bonds Dissapearing

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It is becoming clearer by the day that the credit crunch created a lot of anomilities in assets.

Following the crash the 'perceived safety' was in the dollar and government bonds. So called risky assets such as gold and emerging market equities were see as the bad apple out there.

As time passes more and more people are realising that the real risky assets to own are cash and bonds in a negative interest rate world that will last for the next decade.

The only assets that can be used to protect one's hard earned savings from government inflation thievery are precious metals and equities.

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As the crash has progressed investors have acclimatised to the unusal trading conditions (ZIRP etc) and made the move away from safe havens like U.S Treasuries.

You can only hold that level of fear for so long, eventually you get bored!

Edited by Chef

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Getting worried about your gold.

You earn the award for today's most obvious gold-bug thread. Well done. That is a hard award to win.

You win nothing btw.

Gold is most definitely still a contrarian play judging by the response on here. Ergo not in a bubble (not to mention all the other reasons it's not in a bubble).

Just seen the business 'news' on BBC. Despite gold hitting a record high (if you factor out 30 years of inflation) of $1342 (currently sitting at £1340) after a meteoric rise today, the business 'news' showed figures for the FTSE, DOW, Tesco and another share. Not a mention of gold. Shows how far from a bubble we really are.

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The only assets that can be used to protect one's hard earned savings from government inflation thievery are precious metals and equities.

The more I watch the FTSE, the more closely I recall Tamara de Lempicka's signature, i.e his prediction from last November:

UK HPC Main Crash 2011 Thru 2013 / once FTSE reaches circa 5700 - 5900

Halifax Price index Proj Dec 2009: Target circa 70-80K end 2013 (2010:-5% /2011:-20%,2012:-40%,2013:-5%)

Chart of Idealised FTSE Feb 09: Target to sub 1500 circa end 2013

The FTSE when he made the prediction was about 5100. FTSE today is at 5635.76

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The more I watch the FTSE, the more closely I recall Tamara de Lempicka's signature, i.e his prediction from last November:

The FTSE when he made the prediction was about 5100. FTSE today is at 5635.76

Hey scottbeard; i saw that too and mentioned it on another thread about the FTSE today... so far TdL's sig and commentry has played out as he suggested - each time one of us said 'this is it, the next leg down has started' when we saw a drop of any kind, he would interrupt and say 'today is not the day' or somesuch. Interestiing.

Edit: and to add; Gold doesn't escape the depression in his prediction; why would it in fact? Time to buy gold may well be in a few years.

Edited by MinceBalls

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The more I watch the FTSE, the more closely I recall Tamara de Lempicka's signature, i.e his prediction from last November:

The FTSE when he made the prediction was about 5100. FTSE today is at 5635.76

interesting that value funds seem to have been lagging growth funds for the past month or so - a sign of bubbliness

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Getting worried about your gold.

You earn the award for today's most obvious gold-bug thread. Well done. That is a hard award to win.

You win nothing btw.

Getting worried about your paper TMT?

I could think of a few nice properties you could be viewing down the gower right now had you got out of paper a few years ago.

Remember those Hunt brothers? now we've got them on mass <_<

Let the currency war begin!

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The trend remains fiat currencies down, precious metals up.

Our Jack friend still disbelieves and, like Realist Bear, is beyond hope. It's all too easy for Merv to steal their wealth.

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Whats the cost of production for gold?

I own shares in lots of gold and silver miners rolleyes.gif they all have differing costs.

But between $6-700 as a rough guide.

They are literally making money hand over fist day after day its almost embarassing really.

When the last of you gold bears caves in I'll sell the lot.laugh.gif

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Hey scottbeard; i saw that too and mentioned it on another thread about the FTSE today... so far TdL's sig and commentry has played out as he suggested - each time one of us said 'this is it, the next leg down has started' when we saw a drop of any kind, he would interrupt and say 'today is not the day' or somesuch. Interestiing.

Edit: and to add; Gold doesn't escape the depression in his prediction; why would it in fact? Time to buy gold may well be in a few years.

I wouldn't count on that, during the great depression whilst stocks crashed the USD dollar was devalued against gold and not the other way round.

Even though the USD was backed by gold people still didn't trust paper and the same will happen again.

Holmstake mining 1931 - 36 rose sixfold whilst the Down Jones crashed by over 90%.

Yeah times like these are really bad for gold NOT.

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When the last of you gold bears caves in I'll sell the lot.

I have tried speculating on gold before and have successfully bought every recent top in around the last 12-18 months before getting stopped out. I'll let you know when temptation gets too much and I go in :P

Edited by FaFa!

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I have tried speculating on gold before and have successfully bought every recent top in around the last 12-18 months before getting stopped out. I'll let you know when temptation gets too much and I go in tongue.gif

But you aren't a bear - just a bad trader.tongue.gif

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But you aren't a bear - just a bad trader.tongue.gif

:lol::lol:

I have been doing a lot better lately, honest guv....

Anyway the FaFa Contarian Indicator is now exclusively available to you. Usually it would cost £500 per month subscription, but if you respond to this lengthy spam like email within 48 hrs, I'll whack you on the mail list for £250 per month - a 50%, yes 50%, discount!

Don't miss out!

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laugh.giflaugh.gif

I have been doing a lot better lately, honest guv....

Anyway the FaFa Contarian Indicator is now exclusively available to you. Usually it would cost £500 per month subscription, but if you respond to this lengthy spam like email within 48 hrs, I'll whack you on the mail list for £250 per month - a 50%, yes 50%, discount!

Don't miss out!

biggrin.gif

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The OP makes a good point.

As this thing evolves, currency controls will be put in place. This could be a part of Bernanke's exit strategy. It would be easy to do, as 97% of currency is electronic these days. Already it is happening in very subtle ways, via international credit card transactions, electronic transfers, etc.

When governments realize that the game is up, they won't let you get to your money, except drip by drip, at the ATM.. This could be the final push over the cliff for housing.

The big question is what happens to gold/pm. These represent a currency 'leakage' for all the G20. I can't see that they will remain untouched.

But PMs cannot escape this process. Gold ownership was illegal in western countries from the 1940's (or earlier) until the 1970's. For this reason some upside to gold will be established at the G7/G20 meeting. Did you see that the US Congress has established a committee on gold? Something is brewing.

Can't argue with the present trend though.

Until it stops.

EDIT: I suppose that the thing that scares me about gold is that, if you study the price history, it has these great runs, then BOOM! Collapse, and stays there for years. From this perspective, real estate is not so vicious, over the long term.

Edited by Toto deVeer

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As time passes more and more people are realising that the real risky assets to own are cash and bonds in a negative interest rate world that will last for the next decade.

The only assets that can be used to protect one's hard earned savings from government inflation thievery are precious metals and equities.

My opinion FWIW :

cash - don't want to hold it any longer, devaluation happening all the time, politicians will trash it, just hold a float.

gold - nonyielding, just another boom/bust market, smaller but more extreme than housing was.

houses - still overpriced by 25 to 30%

equities - too risky if interest rates change

bonds - too risky if interest rates change

So cash/equities/bonds is too risky any more due to political and central bank policy risk, who knows what they are going to do and we will be the last to hear about a major event, the insiders have it all sown up.

The only thing left is a small house mortgage free (nearly) from forced sellers that is reasonably priced (<15% above reasonable) but with a big plot capable of later development. There are a few of these appearing now.

I've thought for a while that there will be a buying window. This opens when the forced sellers appears but closes when the currency gets trashed.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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