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Si1

Investng Styles For The Coming 10 Years And Further - Value Vs Growth Vs Indexing

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I would love to know what people think is the most appropriate investing style over the post-crisis (or during...) medium term

Growth investing, according to Jack Bogle, was best following the war until the 1960s, and then value investing outperformed from then until now.

this infers to me that growth investment style may be most appropriate in and environment with government-sponsored recovery, such as occured in the 1950s and 60s (in america and europe)

However, value investing took off spectacularly following the 1970s crisis. having said that, Warren Buffett has certain growth investing plays - such as Burlington, which was hardly cheap and represents a growth play on physical exports. But then again he has been snapping up undervalued financial companies, technology and pharma in america and europe.

So it is difficult to be certain

thoughts? (especially TDL...?)

Edited by Si1

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I would love to know what people think is the most appropriate investing style over the post-crisis (or during...) medium term

Growth investing, according to Jack Bogle, was best following the war until the 1960s, and then value investing outperformed from then until now.

this infers to me that growth investment style may be most appropriate in and environment with government-sponsored recovery, such as occured in the 1950s and 60s (in america and europe)

However, value investing took off spectacularly following the 1970s crisis. having said that, Warren Buffett has certain growth investing plays - such as Burlington, which was hardly cheap and represents a growth play on physical exports. But then again he has been snapping up undervalued financial companies, technology and pharma in america and europe.

So it is difficult to be certain

thoughts? (especially TDL...?)

I'm sceptical of value investing in the current climate because the underlying principle of the strategy is that a company's assets have some solid "value" that can be predicted and realised with reasonable certainty. In a bouyant economy that's a fair assumption, the assets would be snapped up by a more successful business and recycled back into the productive economy. But in today's world? I'm not so sure.

It seems to me entirely realistic that the balance sheet valuations could be wildly optimistic, not for fraudulent reasons but simply because in reality there's no realistic buyer for the assets.

I'm assuming a fairly downbeat and deflationary future, with interest rates at ultra-low levels for years to come. If that transpires then reliable dividend payments are undervalued, so recession resistant businesses with solid dividend records, such as pharma, tobacco, utilities, etc, are commensurately undervalued. The guiding principle for my investments at the moment is to tap into reliable dividend streams.

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I'm assuming a fairly downbeat and deflationary future, with interest rates at ultra-low levels for years to come. If that transpires then reliable dividend payments are undervalued, so recession resistant businesses with solid dividend records, such as pharma, tobacco, utilities, etc, are commensurately undervalued. The guiding principle for my investments at the moment is to tap into reliable dividend streams.

Investing for dividends is true investing, everything else is speculating. Now is back-to-basics time for stocks, you buy them because the company makes a profit and pays some of that profit to you. Riding growth and indexes only works under monetary expansion conditions which we don't have at the moment.

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Value and dividends make a good core strategy.

Serious growth opportunities are less common, but if something looks like an obvious future winner, then go for it! My biggest profit comes from buying ARM at 80-90p, on the basis that they're at the heart of huge growth areas where the likes of Intel simply can't compete.

I've had some success (and an annoying failure) with a variant on a classic contrarian strategy. Many big fund managers are constrained in what they can buy/hold, and sometimes they have to sell for reasons that don't reflect underlying value. This creates some good opportunities for small investors. My biggest success with this strategy was LLOY, which I traded several times in 2008/9 and made good profits as firstly the income funds had to get out, and secondly the trackers had to buy-high-sell-low.

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Investing for dividends is true investing, everything else is speculating. Now is back-to-basics time for stocks, you buy them because the company makes a profit and pays some of that profit to you. Riding growth and indexes only works under monetary expansion conditions which we don't have at the moment.

Agreed. My recent aquistions has included £1000 stakes in GSK, Vodaphone, Greene King, and BAT primarily for dividends in robust companies with good dividend cover.

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Hi all. First post on this forum.

I'm a house price bear but optimistic about the economic recovery otherwise, and the stock market. I find it odd that so many people think you must be a bear on both.

Anyway, as I have no money from parents to get on the ladder like so many others do, I will grow a portfolio as quickly as possible in order to have a sizeable deposit ready for when houses bottom out (in my view about 18 months from now, slowly).

I began investing 5 months ago, and have done well - 7k so far on a UK median wage. Too early to say if its beginners luck or actual skill yet though!

My style is aggressive growth in AIM listed oil and gas stocks for the bulk of the portfolio, but keeping them uncorrelated to one another. The remainder is picked pragmatically, mainly recovery stocks not exposed to housing in any way, or banking.

You can actually keep the risk down a lot more than you may think with AIM oillies.:

-Get in early, sow the seed, and wait for short-term traders to get in prior to news/spud/flowtest/whatever. eg I did this with XEL at 70p and its now 246p. Nothing has happened yet except other investors piling in prior to flow testing. Understand other investors, as well as the market/firm you're buying.

There are LOADS of great opportunities out there today for such a strategy. Recovery stocks all over the place, lots of promising oillies in safe geopolitical areas, rising oil prices.

:)

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So what are you guys investing in!? I'm in Lloyds and a small stake in BDEV, looking for how housebuilders will do.

Was in betfair but the IPO was a stinker.

Don't know much about oil companies to be honest....

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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