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Halifax Hpi F F Forecast 0.6%

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Halifax HPI forex factory forecast is +0.6%. I'd be suprised if it's not negative this month as I'd expect it to continue the downward trend. Mortgage approvals are falling, sales are falling, asking prices are falling, wages are falling, everything is bloody falling, but they predict a rise?

Thankfully, they are nearly always wrong, but who makes these forecasts?

Edit: Forgot the link again: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1286064000&do=displayweek&month=10&year=2010

Edited by Pent Up

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Halifax HPI forex factory forecast is +0.6%. I'd be suprised if it's not negative this month as I'd expect it to continue the downward trend. Mortgage approvals are falling, sales are falling, asking prices are falling, wages are falling, everything is bloody falling, but they predict a rise?

Thankfully, they are nearly always wrong, but who makes these forecasts?

Edit: Forgot the link again: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1286064000&do=displayweek&month=10&year=2010

Pretty much as wrong as any forecasts I ever see, bullish and bearish.

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It wouldn't surprise me, peak buying season, low volumes, vested interest.....

They adjust for seasonality, prices fell on low volumes on 08, vested interest? Maybe...

If it is 0.6% someones gonna die!

Edited by Pent Up

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They adjust for seasonality, prices fell on low volumes on 08, vested interest? Maybe...

If it is 0.6% someones gonna die!

If it's + 0.6% then it will confirm it for me that these indexes are completely divorced from reality, and in no way relevant to what I'm looking at.

Based on Rightmove and anecdotals and my own first tentative steps into looking at buying, the last few months are looking brutal.

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I couldn't give a ****** if it was up or down

History

date event

25 September 2010 * Price changed: from '£120,000' to 'Offers in Excess of £110,000' [Found by n/a]

20 August 2010 * Price changed: from '£132,000' to '£120,000' [Found by n/a]

18 January 2010 * Price changed: from '£145,000' to '£132,000' [Found by n/a]

13 September 2009 * Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]

When 3 bed manchester victorian terraces are advertised 35K less than a year ago you simply have to acknowledge that the bee is the ONLY index in town.

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It wouldn't surprise me, peak buying season, low volumes, vested interest.....

Looking at Rightmove with Property Bee I have seen no increase in buying activity this month.

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Past caring what any index says tbh.

I know of two houses that have just sold in this town for well above 300k , the average house price will be about 110k. The figures are meaningless.

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Yes...the index is a fabrication anyway.

The banks have been nationalised. It's like Stalin's agricultural production figures from the 1930s. We can declare massive surplusses and ignore the fact that the people are starving. We have sovietisation of the financial system. The central committee will take care of this. The political parties have become a redundant side-show. They are as relevant as the monarchy was at the end of the last century.

Edited by ingermany

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time for a hpc index based on property bee ?

They'll just nationalise that as well.

The HPI stats are as important to the national interest as fighter production and shipping loss figures in WW2. They are not going to allow anyone to publish anything that undermines the national interest.

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If it's + 0.6% then it will confirm it for me that these indexes are completely divorced from reality, and in no way relevant to what I'm looking at.

Cash rich 2nd time buyers can afford to move sideways, first time buyers can't get onto the ladder, therefore many more high value transactions compared to the few low-value transactions, that's gotta skew things.

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If it's + 0.6% then it will confirm it for me that these indexes are completely divorced from reality, and in no way relevant to what I'm looking at.

Based on Rightmove and anecdotals and my own first tentative steps into looking at buying, the last few months are looking brutal.

Me too, on this forum in 07 I argued that the VI indexes were unlikely to be allowed to add more harm to the market than the inevitable economic collapse coming.

So far after the "correction" we have seen the indexes leading the market rather than the market creating the indices. I'e the rises seen in the indexes late 08 early 09 where there was lots of negative anecdotal/evidence was used to create the bounce we saw later on in 09. All the areas I look at (up and down the country) the rises did not seem to materialise until the middle of the summer of 09 rather than winter spring 09 as suggested by the VI data. Once people got wind of the rises it seemed to happen very strongly and fast in the real market with some areas I watch showing a rise to near peak again. These strong fast rises were not reflected in data.

We are in a period where it appears the VI's are trying to convince people we are in stagnation, a few months up a few months down as shown by the recent rises when the anecdotes are coming in more negative than the 08 period. My Local area has been falling since May this year.

My view is the "stats" are being used to form public opinion about the housing market rather than reflect what the housing market is doing. If we get a QonQ falls of 6+ % going forward I will eat my words.

It is similar to how the US is using the stock markets to form the opinion all is well and the recovery is still good with the economy.

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Halifax HPI forex factory forecast is +0.6%. I'd be suprised if it's not negative this month as I'd expect it to continue the downward trend. Mortgage approvals are falling, sales are falling, asking prices are falling, wages are falling, everything is bloody falling, but they predict a rise?

Thankfully, they are nearly always wrong, but who makes these forecasts?

Edit: Forgot the link again: http://www.forexfact...th=10&year=2010

Are you sure about wages falling?

Why do low approvals and sales mean the figure will be negative. Couldn't it be higher if they only sold one house?

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Are you sure about wages falling?

Why do low approvals and sales mean the figure will be negative. Couldn't it be higher if they only sold one house?

It was only the banksters changing the balance between wages and bonuses that caused the bizarre wage spike while deep in recession, now that quirk is out of the system....

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Confounded,

Do you think everyone who has got a rise this year knock RPI off?

That graph shows an upturn recently.

Hard to know, I would always consider my wage growth relative to inflation but I suspect the reason we have had static or declining real wages for the last 30 years show most people focus on the nominal figure similar to houses.

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Two or three weeks ago we had bear heaven with a rash of hugely negative mortgage, asking price and surveyor data. We desperately need this to translate into solid falls in the major indices.

For my own peace of mind, you understand.

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Not really too fussed by the indicies to be honest.

Last November the house we are renting was valued at £385,000. Last week it was valued (by the same estate agents) at £360,000.

That is during a time when prices were generally rising, not falling.

I expect it to be nearer £320,000 in May next year when I plan to negotiate with the landlord to buy it <_<

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Two or three weeks ago we had bear heaven with a rash of hugely negative mortgage, asking price and surveyor data. We desperately need this to translate into solid falls in the major indices.

For my own peace of mind, you understand.

That is why they need to print good numbers. They want to hold us in stagnation if possible. I personally feel the market will still fall even if they report rising "stats".

It worked in 09 when they formed a false bottom and it flushed out the last of the bubble money cash. I now know noone who is sitting on cash waiting for lower prices, the last of my friends went all in last month....

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The HPI stats are as important to the national interest as fighter production and shipping loss figures in WW2. They are not going to allow anyone to publish anything that undermines the national interest.

How then do you explain the -20% they showed from 2007-2009? :rolleyes:

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