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I know that this subject tends to polarise views on here so I might be overly optimistic in hoping to get some clear cut advice but I'm going to ask anyway.

I have read a lot on here about the threat of inflation or even hyperinflation. I am a student of history so well know the classic account of Weimar Germany, and we have all seen those empty supermarket shelves in news reports from Zimbabwe in more recent times with the huge denomination notes chasing what little there is. The predictions of hyperinflation (as those of hyper deflation) have so far proved wrong with what little extra inflation (over and above target) probably accounted for by the weakening of the pound during the crunch and the knock on effects from that. I am, however, acutely aware that there is a small matter of £200 bn of QE 'in the system' with helicopter Ben probably preparing to create trillions more stateside as well. I read today that it is now expected that we will engage in more QE fairly soon.

This has made me think about the inflation danger again. I find it hard to see how a hyperinflationary spiral could take hold when wage growth is so weak and the economy in a parlous state, but I could be missing something. What do members think? Will we go one way, or the other, or will inflation carry on, maybe a little above target, for a few years with no major calamity?

It is of more than academic interest to me because at present I hold a little bit of cash (about £40k) and own my home with no other debts. The cash is being saved so that we can move to a bigger place mortgage free when some normality returns to house prices. This leaves me exposed to inflation as I can't pay down debt to get rid of the cash if inflation looks likely to erode its value in a serious fashion. I am left uncertain about how best to proceed but hope that someone will be able to offer some calm, reasoned advice on the subject.

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I happen to believe that CPI inflation will stay on target +/-1% for a decade, but the inflation target may well be revised upwards. The hyperinflation or very high inflation already happened!

I know that this subject tends to polarise views on here so I might be overly optimistic in hoping to get some clear cut advice but I'm going to ask anyway.

I have read a lot on here about the threat of inflation or even hyperinflation. I am a student of history so well know the classic account of Weimar Germany, and we have all seen those empty supermarket shelves in news reports from Zimbabwe in more recent times with the huge denomination notes chasing what little there is. The predictions of hyperinflation (as those of hyper deflation) have so far proved wrong with what little extra inflation (over and above target) probably accounted for by the weakening of the pound during the crunch and the knock on effects from that. I am, however, acutely aware that there is a small matter of £200 bn of QE 'in the system' with helicopter Ben probably preparing to create trillions more stateside as well. I read today that it is now expected that we will engage in more QE fairly soon.

This has made me think about the inflation danger again. I find it hard to see how a hyperinflationary spiral could take hold when wage growth is so weak and the economy in a parlous state, but I could be missing something. What do members think? Will we go one way, or the other, or will inflation carry on, maybe a little above target, for a few years with no major calamity?

It is of more than academic interest to me because at present I hold a little bit of cash (about £40k) and own my home with no other debts. The cash is being saved so that we can move to a bigger place mortgage free when some normality returns to house prices. This leaves me exposed to inflation as I can't pay down debt to get rid of the cash if inflation looks likely to erode its value in a serious fashion. I am left uncertain about how best to proceed but hope that someone will be able to offer some calm, reasoned advice on the subject.

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Very high inflation to house prices, sure. And oil, thus petrol, but not generally surely? Our household expenditure, despite a growing family, hasn't changed exceptionally in the last few years. I remember one period when food rose sharply, a couple when energy prices surged, but countering that is that a lot of other stuff got cheaper or stayed the same or rose only a little. I do think the official figures understate inflation a bit but I don't think we have been through a period of generally high inflation, is that what you meant or were you referring to housing costs in particular?

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I have every sympathy and am in a similar position. I admire those such as estrader and General Congreve (posters on this site) who appear to actively invest in commodities and gold. This is the way to go if you know what you are doing...but I don't and, like you, would love to get some sensible "how to" advice.

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Very high inflation to house prices, sure. And oil, thus petrol, but not generally surely? Our household expenditure, despite a growing family, hasn't changed exceptionally in the last few years. I remember one period when food rose sharply, a couple when energy prices surged, but countering that is that a lot of other stuff got cheaper or stayed the same or rose only a little. I do think the official figures understate inflation a bit but I don't think we have been through a period of generally high inflation, is that what you meant or were you referring to housing costs in particular?

Fear deflation for at least 6 months, the velocity of money is down, as is the supply of money, the psychological promise of money also appears detrimental. Do not be swindled, KEEP CASH.

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Fear deflation for at least 6 months, the velocity of money is down, as is the supply of money, the psychological promise of money also appears detrimental. Do not be swindled, KEEP CASH.

Actually when I say keep cash, it may be better for me that you you buy a commodity so that; bankers do not use strange maths, (factorial reserve banking), to lengthen the nose.

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some of the rubbish I hear on some forums often infuriates me. people claiming that we are facing defaltion because m3 has fallen or because house prices have fallen. complete bunk. go look at all the commodity price rises in the last year. sure house prices are falling but thats because we were in a bubble and they are simply reverting to their true price. Admittedly if governments didnt interfere in capital markets or inject stimulus or engage in QE we would have deflation but governments around the world will not allow that. did you know in the last week 28 governments around the world have intervened in the currency markets to devalue their currency, go to king world news and listen to ben davies of hinde capital. we are facing long term and aggressive inflation due to CB currency devaluations and commodity price rises due to population explosion and asia nations becoming wealthier and adopting western eating habits. Why do you think gold and silver are going up? because investors realise that to hold cash is a loosing bet. the bond markets have low yield because everyone knows the fed is back stopping the 2,10.30 treasury bond. Most people havn't got a clue whats going on because they don't do any research and have lost the ablitiy of critical and logical thinking. we are facing years of high inflation, wether that will tip into hyperinflation is another story but its a possibilty, go read john williams at shadowstats, go do some research. deflation? yeah right, the only thing that will be deflating are your savings in the face of high inflation unless you go buy commodity, agricultural or energy stocks oil, gold or silver.

Helicopter ben bernanke stated several years ago that 'we will never have deflation while we have the printing press' look at the reaction of gold at the last fomc meet last week, you can guarntee that we we will have further US QE on nov 3 fomc meeting and the BoE is already hinting at anew round of Qe here in the UK, when are some people going to wake up?

hows that for polarised?

Edited by goldfever

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I have every sympathy and am in a similar position. I admire those such as estrader and General Congreve (posters on this site) who appear to actively invest in commodities and gold. This is the way to go if you know what you are doing...but I don't and, like you, would love to get some sensible "how to" advice.

heres some advise; investing in commodity or mining stocks, gold silver oil or ETfs is not difficult, try the share centre or barclays stockbrokers or TD waterhouse and open an account it will prob cost about £12 per trade. then find the best companies to buy. try the forums: HPC, SME, Kitco, Penny Stocks or even some of the subscription research sites and then just buy a block of shares or a commodity ETF or fund that is recommended, just watch out for pumpers. buy oil, silver gold, nat gas, potash, agro companies with a good track record. juniors and majors and then let them run while researching other opportunities. its not hard and once you get started you'll get feel for a good investment. keeping your money in some dire 2% savings account is a recipe for loss.

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I happen to believe that CPI inflation will stay on target +/-1% for a decade, but the inflation target may well be revised upwards. The hyperinflation or very high inflation already happened!

I never heard such rubbish in all my life. when was the last time you looked at the charts for wheat, corn, iron ore, oil, coffee, pork, beef, sugar, copper, gold, silver. palladium etc? judging by this drivel probably never. energy and food inflation are just kicking off and if you dont belive me try yahoo finance- they have charts. Show me one commodity that has gone down in the last year since the 2008 meltdown when commodities were sold to cover margin calls on the stocks indices and I'll shut up, but I'll guarntee you wont find any that have gone down. do you seriously belive governement statistics? unless you can back up this rubbish by logic and evidence I suggest you keep this kind of wishful thinking analysis to yourself.

Edited by goldfever

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I know that this subject tends to polarise views on here so I might be overly optimistic in hoping to get some clear cut advice but I'm going to ask anyway.

I have read a lot on here about the threat of inflation or even hyperinflation. I am a student of history so well know the classic account of Weimar Germany, and we have all seen those empty supermarket shelves in news reports from Zimbabwe in more recent times with the huge denomination notes chasing what little there is. The predictions of hyperinflation (as those of hyper deflation) have so far proved wrong with what little extra inflation (over and above target) probably accounted for by the weakening of the pound during the crunch and the knock on effects from that. I am, however, acutely aware that there is a small matter of £200 bn of QE 'in the system' with helicopter Ben probably preparing to create trillions more stateside as well. I read today that it is now expected that we will engage in more QE fairly soon.

This has made me think about the inflation danger again. I find it hard to see how a hyperinflationary spiral could take hold when wage growth is so weak and the economy in a parlous state, but I could be missing something. What do members think? Will we go one way, or the other, or will inflation carry on, maybe a little above target, for a few years with no major calamity?

It is of more than academic interest to me because at present I hold a little bit of cash (about £40k) and own my home with no other debts. The cash is being saved so that we can move to a bigger place mortgage free when some normality returns to house prices. This leaves me exposed to inflation as I can't pay down debt to get rid of the cash if inflation looks likely to erode its value in a serious fashion. I am left uncertain about how best to proceed but hope that someone will be able to offer some calm, reasoned advice on the subject.

You are in a very similar position to myself, no debt, own your own house and some cash on hand that you want to put towards a bigger house further down the line.

I decided to put about 50% of my cash wealth in Precious Metals (45% gold, 5% silver as more of s speculative play). The reason for this:

- negative real interest rates eating the real value of my cash savings

- QE pushing up asset prices and devaluing currencies

- competitive currency devaluations by nations around the world

- Governments saying they'll keep interest rates low for the long term.

- the fact that it's fairly certain the value of gold (and silver) is artificially suppressed because 99% of the market is made up of paper contracts with no actual metal to back them. If this is true the returns could end up being mind blowing come the time the lid is blown off this deception. All it will take is for more nervous investors to demand delivery of the real thing in exchange for the contract (there are reports this is already happening), as the financial situation worsens this will increasingly happen until, BOOM!

-If governments were prepared to let bad debts go bad, then we'd have deflation, but they will not (because their own debts will go into the stratosphere and the banks that control them will also go bust), so we're on a path to inflation.

I recommend perusing the following sites:

marketoracle.com

zerohedge.com

You will find some anti-gold sentiment on their too, not just gold bulls, so hopefully from the arguments in the articles and comments you can arrive at your own decision, just like I did.

I must admit that I bought my metals over 18 months ago, even then I baulked at the price, so to go in now (when the price has increased 28%) must seem even more daunting. But there is every reason to believe that today's prices will look cheap in 6 months to a years time and beyond.

If the arguments of myself and others persuade you to go for gold, I would recommend spending a minimum of 25% of your savings on gold, if you still feel cautious. Even the world financial situation miraculously improves and gold halves in value you've lost 12.5% of your savings (5k - not exactly a nightmare scenario), but if inflation keeps eating your cash at a rate of 5% every year (I'd caution the real rate is likely to be twice this at least) and gold doubles in the next two years you'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

In truth, I believe the scenario is likely to be a lot worse than that (as in cash down, gold up), hence why I was 50/50, although the ratio is now more like 66/33 in favour of metals because I have been spending some cash since I bought my PM's.

Final word of warning, only buy physical metal (from a reputable dealer). In a gold boom scenario it is likely the govt. will seek to make holding gold undesirable to prop up the currency. Direct confiscation will be a last resort, but they'll probably act through more insidious methods like increasing tax liabilities on gold (easily done if your gold is in an ETF - plus there is a big question over whether ETFs actually have the physical gold to back their accounts). Think this is unlikely? They've just raised CGT haven't they? There you go, expect more of that in the future.

If you hold physical in your hand it is no one else's liability and is easily hidden from the authorities and sold on the black market later (see gold is exciting too!).

Get researching and don't delay, your hard won savings are at risk from irresponsible people who call themselves your government.

Edited by General Congreve

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Put your money in bricks and mortar. At least it will keep the rain off you which is more than gold will do

Well, you've heard the cases for and against, do some more research and it's your choice.

As for the above poster, what a well-reasoned argument, remind me, what is this site called again?

Perhaps I should add, before some other wise cracker does, that you can't eat gold. Excuse me while I just pop out to my grain store to get some grain to whip up into a tasty loaf, to go with my pound sterling side salad. Tw@ts.

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I have every sympathy and am in a similar position. I admire those such as estrader and General Congreve (posters on this site) who appear to actively invest in commodities and gold. This is the way to go if you know what you are doing...but I don't and, like you, would love to get some sensible "how to" advice.

It's not difficult to invest in precious metals, don't be paralysed by fear, if you need advice just ask next time you see me on a thread, happy to help. Hopefully, this thread has helped.

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It's not difficult to invest in precious metals, don't be paralysed by fear, if you need advice just ask next time you see me on a thread, happy to help. Hopefully, this thread has helped.

I think this sums me up - i first thought about gold 18 months ago - same time as you - and thought it was too expensive then! I even went as far as transferring the cash to an account i could use to pay for it and then bottled it - putting it in NS&I index linked bond + ISA. At the time I had about 19K to invest in gold (20% of my savings) - just enough for a kilo - and now a kilo is about 26-7K!

Now I feel I have missed out so am still paralised and the problem with this forum is that there are forceful arguments either way.

I have been on the various reputable gold websites and discussed with ATS bullion on an almost daily basis in the last 2 weeks but each day the price increases I think 'there has got to be a mini dip i can buy into' and it just doesn't happen! Sensible investors of gold often say buy on mini dips but there just hasn't been one of late so I don't know what the hell to do! Do I hold out a week or two to see if one happens or just buy now?

Advise welcome please!!! :)

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  • 143 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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