When Will A Recession Be Noticeable

[council dweller]

According to The Motorcycle News, Suzuki are going to give up around 40 dealerships next year. So one third to close and they're blaming the strong Yen. Of course they're partly right.

[Steve K]

According to The Motorcycle News, Suzuki are going to give up around 40 dealerships next year. So one third to close and they're blaming the strong Yen. Of course they're partly right.

I'm sure though that if they could sort out Capirossi and Bautista's bikes things would be better. Haslem's bike blowing up last week won't have helped either.

Steve (RG500, TL1000R, NS400R & 350LC)

[ralphmalph]

According to The Motorcycle News, Suzuki are going to give up around 40 dealerships next year. So one third to close and they're blaming the strong Yen. Of course they're partly right.

Are Triumph increasing thier dealerships?

[ShedDweller]

I can pretty muh go with most of the sentiments here, My neighbours ... A mix of IT, finance, consulting have not been affected in any way shape or form, If anything they have done very well out of the low interest rates. I know of nobody who has lost or is even threatened with the loss of their job .. One person was asked to take a 10% pay cut and agreed then went and got a 10% more elsewhere .. According to a mate who works in construction it's all full speed ahead but alot of the Polish guys have gone back to Poland which is causing problems .

Like the other poster here my own industry (because it makes things ..) has seen rates halve since 1995 .. But the difference is that now if a company goes bust it goes into administration and is not bought wholesale by another company.

People have told me how hard it is to get a mortgage ..

Anecdotally someone told me that "Australia is a cluster****** far far worse than Ireland .. he had intended to start a branch of his (very sucessfull) buisness in Aus .. did due diligence .. was terrifed at what he saw and then came back to the UK.

But as for "round here" no shortage of new cars .. loads of renovating of houses .. new developments starting up ..

[council dweller]

I'm sure though that if they could sort out Capirossi and Bautista's bikes things would be better. Haslem's bike blowing up last week won't have helped either.

Steve (RG500, TL1000R, NS400R & 350LC)

Maybe you're right but I wouldn't have thought that racing success would have made so much difference to sales?

Haven't owned a bike for 5 years, just waiting for it to go all early 30's when you couldn't give bikes away! Enjoyed the reading the MCN today and their explaination of how bikes don't sell so well after the summer! No sh!t sherlock but I think there's a lot more to it than that.

[council dweller]

Are Triumph increasing thier dealerships?

I guess so but if people start to look for practical transport they'll start to struggle.

Maybe they should start to produce 250/350 singles?

[ArthurHon]

I was talking to a youngish EA today and she mentioned that her dad was telling her how he could not remember such uncertain economic times - so I told her to listen to her dad.

TMT I read so many of your posts relating to conversations you've had with EAs it unreal, you must be one! Or clean their windows or something that has you in their offices a few times a week but not buying houses. Now I can recognise alot of the EAs in my town when they pick up the phone but we only ever talk about one thing, whether or not I am buying the house they are showing me or I'm inquiring about. These have now ceased though as I'm buying one, which I know is a terrible decision.

[The Masked Tulip]

TMT I read so many of your posts relating to conversations you've had with EAs it unreal, you must be one! Or clean their windows or something that has you in their offices a few times a week but not buying houses. Now I can recognise alot of the EAs in my town when they pick up the phone but we only ever talk about one thing, whether or not I am buying the house they are showing me or I'm inquiring about. These have now ceased though as I'm buying one, which I know is a terrible decision.

I will talk to anyone and everyone. I am a very communicative person. I will strike up a conversation with strangers on the street, at bus stops, in supermarket queues, etc, etc.

I used to be a documentary film-maker and getting people to talk and open up was part of my job - apparently, so I was told, I was very good at it.

[South Lorne]

But as for "round here" no shortage of new cars .. loads of renovating of houses .. new developments starting up ..

...is 'round here'..in the SE.....

[ShedDweller]

...is 'round here'..in the SE.....

Round here is the nicer end of the Thames Valley .. So yes South East with Knobs on .. But I was up in Manchester last week and did not see any signs either certainly plenty of new cars and full restaurants etc .. (but there may be more impact there I didn't see ..)

[okaycuckoo]

Desperate ?

In the same city, is a closed down EA's. It has one photo left, abandoned in the otherwise bare shop window...a picture of the shop itself for sale..

Hehe. Nice image.

[stumpy]

In truth the recession hasn't even happened, the whole thing has been fudged so far (with a greater cost to pay in the future as a result). I mean where's the 3 million unemployed?

Mark my words it's coming, as is inflation, sovereign debt default and massive loss of savings for those who haven't protected them.

Three million people unemployed might be an underestimate of the truth. Depends how its calculated by the people that let us be robbed blind lol.

I mean who in power would anyone believe. None would be a good guess. Whichever way you look at it we aint the rich ones are we. They all buggered orf to sunnier climes.

Remeber, Your mind believes everything you tell it.

[okaycuckoo]

I reckon the BOE has done a good job, better than the Fed. Not sure about comparison with the ECB.

I see shops full. Lots of suburban renovation work for builders. Restaurants doing OK. And I also know that my extended family in Ireland is not suffering at all - none of the youngsters is out of work, nobody in trouble with debt.

But I also know from my work that debt arrears are being treated as if they're not a problem - NRK doesn't demand arrears from mortgagors, credit card companies are gung-ho for debt management plans that allow token repayments. It seems good for now, but the arrears are not going away.

Someone will have to pay, but I'm unable to figure out when I can say, "Here's Johnny!" I reckon it'll be when the first local authority equality officer turns up unable to pay her mortgage. I do know a housing desk officer (advisor to those in arrears on their mortgages) is just scraping by, having bought in 2007 - "I'm stuck there for life!"

[Zngland]

I reckon the BOE has done a good job, better than the Fed. Not sure about comparison with the ECB.

I see shops full. Lots of suburban renovation work for builders. Restaurants doing OK. And I also know that my extended family in Ireland is not suffering at all - none of the youngsters is out of work, nobody in trouble with debt.

But I also know from my work that debt arrears are being treated as if they're not a problem - NRK doesn't demand arrears from mortgagors, credit card companies are gung-ho for debt management plans that allow token repayments. It seems good for now, but the arrears are not going away.

Someone will have to pay, but I'm unable to figure out when I can say, "Here's Johnny!" I reckon it'll be when the first local authority equality officer turns up unable to pay her mortgage. I do know a housing desk officer (advisor to those in arrears on their mortgages) is just scraping by, having bought in 2007 - "I'm stuck there for life!"

+1

[ArthurHon]

I will talk to anyone and everyone. I am a very communicative person. I will strike up a conversation with strangers on the street, at bus stops, in supermarket queues, etc, etc.

I used to be a documentary film-maker and getting people to talk and open up was part of my job - apparently, so I was told, I was very good at it.

But, bonny lad(y) the question is are you an EA or closely associated? I think that if I had the communicative skills to elicit such revelations on a regular basis the cost of accommodation would not concern me as I would be very wealthy! Communicative skills like that are priceless!

[Mr Yogi]

Round here is the nicer end of the Thames Valley .. So yes South East with Knobs on .. But I was up in Manchester last week and did not see any signs either certainly plenty of new cars and full restaurants etc .. (but there may be more impact there I didn't see ..)

I'm in the Manchester area and have not been affected personally by the recession at all. My cabinetmaking business is busier than ever and there is no shortage of people spending thousands on custom-made furniture - possibly the ultimate discretionary spend.

A strange thing is that the age profile of my clients is decreasing - five years ago it was mainly middle aged or elderly people; now the majority are in their thirties and forties. I get the distinct impression that they are spending their own money, too - not borrowed. An answer to this conundrum is probably that a lot of these clients have moved into the area recently from down south, thereby freeing up dollops of dosh from the sale of their previous house. Roll on the BBC move to Salford Quays!

The recession is real however. I have recently taken up golf again after a 30 year lay-off and am looking around for a club to join. Almost without exception all golf clubs are desperate to attract members - I have had membership secretaries on the phone begging me to come and have a complementary round to try out their course. It's great! At this rate I won't have to pay for a round of golf until next year!

As for 'joining fees' - they seem to be a thing of the past. £50 a month will now buy me full membership of a club with a world-class course.

Edited October 3, 2010 by Mr Yogi

[BuyInOxford]

The only way to have a japanese style decade of deflation is to have a country full of hardworking, penny saving, non spending japanese people. Doesn't work in a country where people are happy to buy a 500 quid TV and pay 50% APR interest on it .

They just replaced it with govt debt.

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/

[200p]

This is a small window to allow people to get their financial house in order, I certainly believe. The rising yellow metal price still indicates something is still afoot.

[Kyoto]

I don't know of a single person who has lost their job, been made part time, or had a pay cut.

This is in the age of Facebook where I get to hear if any one of hundreds of people does a fart.

This includes many people who work in Ireland and NI?

[Dorkins]

The depression is currently limited to the young. I know two unemployed people with PhDs (one in a hard science), an unemployed physio, an unemployed Oxbridge maths graduate, an unemployed biochemist 5+ years' lab experience, an unemployed lawyer with 3-4 years' experience, and two science/engineering graduates working part time for NMW several years out of uni. All of these people are middle class, and all but one (diagnosed as clinically depressed) are motivated people trying to get on with life. Most are very unhappy, especially because our society tends to blame unemployed people for their own predicament and young unemployed people often end up blaming themselves. These people are all mid 20s-early 30s. They are the missing FTBs. Knocking £10k off that terraced house just isn't going to cut it. These people need the cost of housing and tax to halve just as a start if they are to be able to compete with cheap foreigners.

P.S. I am sure that none of these people show up in government statistics because as far as I know, none are claiming benefits.

Edited October 3, 2010 by Dorkins

[The Masked Tulip]

But, bonny lad(y) the question is are you an EA or closely associated? I think that if I had the communicative skills to elicit such revelations on a regular basis the cost of accommodation would not concern me as I would be very wealthy! Communicative skills like that are priceless!

I think I will let other posters answer your EA question.

[ShedDweller]

A strange thing is that the age profile of my clients is decreasing - five years ago it was mainly middle aged or elderly people; now the majority are in their thirties and forties. I get the distinct impression that they are spending their own money, too - not borrowed. An answer to this conundrum is probably that a lot of these clients have moved into the area recently from down south, thereby freeing up dollops of dosh from the sale of their previous house. Roll on the BBC move to Salford Quays!

I "Lived" in Salford quays for four months while working in Manchester .. When the BBC moves up I confidently expect the suicide rate to rise exponetially ..

[silver panda]

I'm in the Manchester area and have not been affected personally by the recession at all. My cabinetmaking business is busier than ever and there is no shortage of people spending thousands on custom-made furniture - possibly the ultimate discretionary spend.

A strange thing is that the age profile of my clients is decreasing - five years ago it was mainly middle aged or elderly people; now the majority are in their thirties and forties. I get the distinct impression that they are spending their own money, too - not borrowed. An answer to this conundrum is probably that a lot of these clients have moved into the area recently from down south, thereby freeing up dollops of dosh from the sale of their previous house. Roll on the BBC move to Salford Quays!

The recession is real however. I have recently taken up golf again after a 30 year lay-off and am looking around for a club to join. Almost without exception all golf clubs are desperate to attract members - I have had membership secretaries on the phone begging me to come and have a complementary round to try out their course. It's great! At this rate I won't have to pay for a round of golf until next year!

As for 'joining fees' - they seem to be a thing of the past. £50 a month will now buy me full membership of a club with a world-class course.

The more I think about it it seems that the recession divide isn't north-south but more of urban-industrial/rural.

Urban areas did well during the bubble as they are where the growth areas are based - finance, property speculation, retail/leisure spending, public sector. And these are the areas that received most benefit from government action during the recession.

But the industrial towns and rural areas that surround the big cities never gained much during the bubble and then suffered much more during the recession.

[barrabus]

I "Lived" in Salford quays for four months while working in Manchester .. When the BBC moves up I confidently expect the suicide rate to rise exponetially ..

Good, less pensions to pay out of our license fee

[Errol]

I reckon the BOE has done a good job

You're about the only person who thinks so.