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When Will A Recession Be Noticeable

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I've said this from the beginning but if you hold onto your job it is hard to notice any effect of even the most severe recession.

I haven't been to Dublin recently but I would hazard a guess that:

1) house prices are still advertised at stupid price sin EA windows

2) restaurants are still full

3) trendy bars are still full

4) lots of chelsea tanks and affluent cars being driven around

and ireland is in a depression. Same goes for Iceland. When I went there a couple of years ago after their banking bust it still seemed like all systems go.

So even in major economic crisis the only thing affected are the numbers/governement stats/"value" of the FTSE etc.

If they had let all the banks go bust and house prices crash by 90% etc etc etc... I honestly don't think things would have been that bad after the short term pain for a year or two.

Now the future is just cloudy and us HPCers are stuck with high levels of savings and nowhere to go and nothing to spend it on (because everything is perceived as being ridiculously expensive after prices been driven up by sheeple buying on tick).

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I've said this from the beginning but if you hold onto your job it is hard to notice any effect of even the most severe recession.

I haven't been to Dublin recently but I would hazard a guess that:

1) house prices are still advertised at stupid price sin EA windows

2) restaurants are still full

3) trendy bars are still full

4) lots of chelsea tanks and affluent cars being driven around

and ireland is in a depression. Same goes for Iceland. When I went there a couple of years ago after their banking bust it still seemed like all systems go.

So even in major economic crisis the only thing affected are the numbers/governement stats/"value" of the FTSE etc.

If they had let all the banks go bust and house prices crash by 90% etc etc etc... I honestly don't think things would have been that bad after the short term pain for a year or two.

Now the future is just cloudy and us HPCers are stuck with high levels of savings and nowhere to go and nothing to spend it on (because everything is perceived as being ridiculously expensive after prices been driven up by sheeple buying on tick).

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I've said this from the beginning but if you hold onto your job it is hard to notice any effect of even the most severe recession.

I haven't been to Dublin recently but I would hazard a guess that:

1) house prices are still advertised at stupid price sin EA windows

2) restaurants are still full

3) trendy bars are still full

4) lots of chelsea tanks and affluent cars being driven around

and ireland is in a depression. Same goes for Iceland. When I went there a couple of years ago after their banking bust it still seemed like all systems go.

So even in major economic crisis the only thing affected are the numbers/governement stats/"value" of the FTSE etc.

If they had let all the banks go bust and house prices crash by 90% etc etc etc... I honestly don't think things would have been that bad after the short term pain for a year or two.

Now the future is just cloudy and us HPCers are stuck with high levels of savings and nowhere to go and nothing to spend it on (because everything is perceived as being ridiculously expensive after prices been driven up by sheeple buying on tick).

In truth the recession hasn't even happened, the whole thing has been fudged so far (with a greater cost to pay in the future as a result). I mean where's the 3 million unemployed?

Mark my words it's coming, as is inflation, sovereign debt default and massive loss of savings for those who haven't protected them.

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Gordon Browns massive borrowing binge and the BoEs money printing has stalled the crash for maybe a year. Thats over now. its all downhill from here. If the original OP doesn't see a recession, wait a few months. infact I'd argue its not a recession at all but an inflationary depression lasting many years that we are just entering.

Edited by goldfever

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I lived in Dublin 07-09. Bars are half empty, restaurants also. English stag do's can get into the exclusive clubs that 3 years ago they would have been turned away from. Also queues of foreigners getting food parcels off the government.

There is definately a depression of sorts going on there. It's not a 1930s style depression.

The problem for Ireland (and part of the solution) is that prices were way too high. People are being helped by deflation in the order of 30% on some items. My flat rent fell from €1400 a month to €1000. It is now probably €900.

Likewise people cottoned on to the retail rip off and shops started doing deals on food etc to bring prices better in line with other EU states.

The price of a pint remained stubbonly high at €4.50-5.00. Although pubs were going bust by the minute the landlord union refused to budge until one or two pubs took them to court to allow them to drop their prices.

We have had it nowhere near as bad. It is a deep recession here not a depression.

The problem for small euro members, tied to one exchange rate is that they have a great boom and an awful bust.

Ireland is experiencing real deflation. The UK deflationists are living in another world.

Edited by ringledman

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I went out to dinner last Monday evening at the Prezzo Restaurant in the Brighton Marina. Apart from my lot, there were possibly 6 or 8 other customers. Just about all the other restaurants down there had signs out front offering discounts. Prezzo are doing a buy one meal and get the 2nd for £1 which may be a sign of the times.

House prices are dropping here too but apart from that, no real signs of anything changing.

IMO, there will not be much to indicate anything is wrong until the last lot of QE runs out.

Things may look different up North though.

Edited by Realistbear

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Anecdote. I was talking to my brother this morning. He runs a contract cleaning company. A significant area of work is house cleans for letting agents. He is flat out at present as rental market in Cambridge seems very bouyant. Other work more subdued but still a steady stream.

He said the works there - just have to be proactive about getting it and hanging on once you have it.

The dark cloud on the horizon is the 20th October. Cambridge has a very high public sector work force once you include the University and Hospitals.

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I've said this from the beginning but if you hold onto your job it is hard to notice any effect of even the most severe recession.

"I've said this from the beginning but if you're not one of the 10% killed, it is hard to notice any effect of decimation" Roman soldier

"A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours." Ronald Reagan

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It is very noticeable from just viewing this board that the private sector areas of the UK seem to be recession aware - i.e. places like Brighton dropping asking prices and RB's eating out anecdotal - but that the public sector dominated areas are still obvlivious to any real problems.

I hate to start this debate but it is very noticeable from the various posts on here.

My own area of Swansea is still very much in denial with an obvious difference in attitude to the future between the public and private sector workers.

I am waiting for Oct 20th spending review, and the later Welsh Assembly one in Nov, to actually see if there are going to be nay serious public sector cuts. Frankly, if I do not hear dire job cuts in either of those I will no longer believe in any cuts or job losses happening... and decide to get on with my life instead.

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There are pound shops opening everywhere now. The same thing happened with 100 yen shops in Japan in the 90s. We are in a depression.

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It is very noticeable from just viewing this board that the private sector areas of the UK seem to be recession aware - i.e. places like Brighton dropping asking prices and RB's eating out anecdotal - but that the public sector dominated areas are still obvlivious to any real problems.

I hate to start this debate but it is very noticeable from the various posts on here.

My own area of Swansea is still very much in denial with an obvious difference in attitude to the future between the public and private sector workers.

I am waiting for Oct 20th spending review, and the later Welsh Assembly one in Nov, to actually see if there are going to be nay serious public sector cuts. Frankly, if I do not hear dire job cuts in either of those I will no longer believe in any cuts or job losses happening... and decide to get on with my life instead.

Cambridge will be an interesting test of this as whilst the public sector workforce (university) is very high shed loads of cash come into the City from abroad.

A friend of mine used to work at one of the private colleges (6th form equivalent) whose customer base was almost exclusively arabs and children of Russian Mafia who wanted to send their kiddies abroad <_<

We seem to be increasingly a laundry service for the worlds despots and organised crime.

Not that Im complaining as in 5 days times I officially become a BTL Scumlord in Cambridge :P

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It is very noticeable from just viewing this board that the private sector areas of the UK seem to be recession aware - i.e. places like Brighton dropping asking prices and RB's eating out anecdotal - ...

I wouldn't give it much weight TBH. Brighton Marina (built by the council BTW) has far too many restaurants and is far enough out of town to need a taxi home if you like drink or two. At this time of year there are few tourists (if any) and the town itself has some really good eateries. The Prezzo is a glorified fast food chain and cr@p so not really telling you much either. There are two family run Italian food places which are both good (one is excellent) and they are regularly busy. The floating Chinese is also a really good place to go and is doing well despite the opening of another Chines on the upper deck with all the other crappy chain outlets like Prezzo and Pizza Express. The upper area is popular int eh summer as you can sit outside on the terrace and smoke and watch the boats. I doubt any of the outlets there make money this time of year.

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I wouldn't give it much weight TBH. Brighton Marina (built by the council BTW) has far too many restaurants and is far enough out of town to need a taxi home if you like drink or two. At this time of year there are few tourists (if any) and the town itself has some really good eateries. The Prezzo is a glorified fast food chain and cr@p so not really telling you much either. There are two family run Italian food places which are both good (one is excellent) and they are regularly busy. The floating Chinese is also a really good place to go and is doing well despite the opening of another Chines on the upper deck with all the other crappy chain outlets like Prezzo and Pizza Express. The upper area is popular int eh summer as you can sit outside on the terrace and smoke and watch the boats. I doubt any of the outlets there make money this time of year.

Funny you should say that about Prezzo. I find their food to be a cut above the average as it is all fresh, they use fresh herbs and the sauces are all distinct. Average dish is just under a tenner so the buy one get one foa £1 is a good deal. The house red sucks royally though (£13.50) and I would not recommend it. The white house wine is okay.

The other Eytie restaurants in the Lanes (Pinnochios and Donatellos) are also good and you find them "manned" by real Italians whereas Prezzo is almost exclusively Polish. Someone told me that they went to a restaurant loast month where there was a Brit server but it may just be an urban legend.

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Its an odd recession. With the magnitude of economic contraction we've experienced I was expecting a serious deflation, but instead we've got slightly above average inflation. No real mass unemployment and house prices holding showing crazy buoyancy, in London at least.

I can only imaging that the QE has taken the edge of the worst effects of the crunch. London is still stable, because of overseas money.

I think we're in for more of a living death Japanese style zero to low growth economy for the next decade or so rather than a full blown 30's style massacre. But who knows?

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In truth the recession hasn't even happened, the whole thing has been fudged so far (with a greater cost to pay in the future as a result). I mean where's the 3 million unemployed?

Mark my words it's coming, as is inflation, sovereign debt default and massive loss of savings for those who haven't protected them.

Do you work in the public sector or live in London by any chance?

If you worked in industry in Yorkshire you wouldn't be writing the 'recession hasn't even happened'.

The industrial recession began back in 2000 and is still continuing.

What's the definition of a depression? A 10% fall? A 10 year fall from the previous high? Both have happened to industrial output.

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Its an odd recession. With the magnitude of economic contraction we've experienced I was expecting a serious deflation, but instead we've got slightly above average inflation. No real mass unemployment and house prices holding showing crazy buoyancy, in London at least.

I can only imaging that the QE has taken the edge of the worst effects of the crunch. London is still stable, because of overseas money.

I think we're in for more of a living death Japanese style zero to low growth economy for the next decade or so rather than a full blown 30's style massacre. But who knows?

The only way to have a japanese style decade of deflation is to have a country full of hardworking, penny saving, non spending japanese people. Doesn't work in a country where people are happy to buy a 500 quid TV and pay 50% APR interest on it .

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The only way to have a japanese style decade of deflation is to have a country full of hardworking, penny saving, non spending japanese people. Doesn't work in a country where people are happy to buy a 500 quid TV and pay 50% APR interest on it .

I wasn't talking about deflation, just pitifully low growth. And have you seen the latest Japanese saving rate. Apparently its declined to only 2.2%, the US rate is higher at 5%.

Edited by drdoom

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I went past a cheaper end jewellery shop in a small city in NW. England today.

Just inside the door, was displayed a badly hand written A4 bit of paper saying '20% off for cash'.

Desperate ? :unsure:

In the same city, is a closed down EA's. It has one photo left, abandoned in the otherwise bare shop window...a picture of the shop itself for sale.. :huh:

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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