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Pent Up

Rics Chartbook October 2010

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http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7559&fileExtension=PDF

Housing shortage is there? Not building enough homes are they? Seems the reason for the lack of building is worsening insufficiant demand

factorslimitingbuilding.jpg

Annualised 3m/3m average of halifax and nationwide now negative :)

aunnualised3m3m.jpg

Demand vs supply.

demandvsupply.jpg

I think this one is interesting, you can see the effect of falling interest rates boosting demand in 08/09. Supply inceasing since late last year but only recently diverging from demand, now negative while supply still increasing albeit at a slower pace. As long as the blue line stays below the red we should continue to see falling prices. Q1 07 saw a huge surge in new instructions (any one know what caused this? job losses?) but prices didn't start to drop until around 1 quarter later mid to late 07 iirc. so we should see some bigger falls over the next few months as the supply/demand imbalance feeds through fully. Throughout most of 07/08 supply was actually falling steadily but demand fell faster. causing the continued price falls. same again?

Edit: forgot the link.

Edited by Pent Up

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But in that last chart it is interesting that demand from vendors in 2010 is now dropping... the question is is that chart showing data pre or post the abolishment of HIPs?

If it is pre HIPs going then hopefully the next chart will show a big upturn in houses coming on the market.

If it is post HIPs going then, combined with the drop in buyers but buyers who presumably have chosen to rent or are unable to get mortgages due to high asking prices/big deposits needed/etc, then the worry is that as soon as mortgages become more freely available there will be an upturn in buyers whilst houses coming on the market are falling.

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But in that last chart it is interesting that demand from vendors in 2010 is now dropping... the question is is that chart showing data pre or post the abolishment of HIPs?

If it is pre HIPs going then hopefully the next chart will show a big upturn in houses coming on the market.

If it is post HIPs going then, combined with the drop in buyers but buyers who presumably have chosen to rent or are unable to get mortgages due to high asking prices/big deposits needed/etc, then the worry is that as soon as mortgages become more freely available there will be an upturn in buyers whilst houses coming on the market are falling.

The charts are plotting change in balance rather than an actual figure. So above the line is increasing and below the line is decreasing. So no vendor instructions are still increasing just a a slower pace. Mortgage availability is getting worse and in the recent BOE credit conditions survey shows that lenders plan to restrict mortgage lending further in the next three months now that SLS is going. The only 95% LTV available from Skipton financial has just been withdrawn. It's not going to get any better any time soon :)

It's post hips the data includes data from the latest (August) RICS survey. Next one is October 12th

Edited by Pent Up

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http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7559&fileExtension=PDF

Housing shortage is there? Not building enough homes are they? Seems the reason for the lack of building is worsening insufficiant demand

factorslimitingbuilding.jpg

Annualised 3m/3m average of halifax and nationwide now negative :)

aunnualised3m3m.jpg

Demand vs supply.

demandvsupply.jpg

I think this one is interesting, you can see the effect of falling interest rates boosting demand in 08/09. Supply inceasing since late last year but only recently diverging from demand, now negative while supply still increasing albeit at a slower pace. As long as the blue line stays below the red we should continue to see falling prices. Q1 07 saw a huge surge in new instructions (any one know what caused this? job losses?) but prices didn't start to drop until around 1 quarter later mid to late 07 iirc. so we should see some bigger falls over the next few months as the supply/demand imbalance feeds through fully. Throughout most of 07/08 supply was actually falling steadily but demand fell faster. causing the continued price falls. same again?

Edit: forgot the link.

Interesting, especially the proportion bought without mortgages. Thanks for posting.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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