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Realistbear

Stocks Have Best September In 70 Years

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-set-to-end-September-apf-3589963920.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

The Dow Jones industrial average rose nearly 35 points in late morning trading. It has risen 8.5 percent this month, which puts it in line for its best September performance since 1939.

Gold has been booming too--everything is a winner! Buy Buy Buy--its all bubbleicious!

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Maybe our problem is not being wise but being locked in a mentality of believing that everything is about to crash when, perhaps, it is not?

Is there a 'every share and asset will soar in price' type forum out there?

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Maybe our problem is not being wise but being locked in a mentality of believing that everything is about to crash when, perhaps, it is not?

Is there a 'every share and asset will soar in price' type forum out there?

Perhaps this may have had something to do with it...

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=164:the-only-reason-stocks-have-rallied-this-month&catid=39:stocks&Itemid=70

Little bit of under the counter QE never did stocks any harm.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-set-to-end-September-apf-3589963920.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

The Dow Jones industrial average rose nearly 35 points in late morning trading. It has risen 8.5 percent this month, which puts it in line for its best September performance since 1939.

Gold has been booming too--everything is a winner! Buy Buy Buy--its all bubbleicious!

So it bloody should with all that new cash slopping around the system, it's all an illusion though ;).

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Maybe our problem is not being wise but being locked in a mentality of believing that everything is about to crash when, perhaps, it is not?

Is there a 'every share and asset will soar in price' type forum out there?

I think people do have a tendency to look at everything in a bearish fashion, partly because most people on this forum are cash rich (comparatively) and asset poor, and because people are optimistic by default (i.e. a bear scenario suits most people on here's circumstances, so it is optimistic to believe the bear case).

However, this is only part of the story. Most people on here are better informed about economic matters than your average punter, and the fundamentals underlying almost everything are AWFUL.

What is stopping financial market asset prices cratering is the suspicion that further QE is an inevitability, and the belief that governments will decide to favour debt-laden asset holders over asset-poor holders of cash. This may be true, but no one knows for certain. The political tide may turn, especially when central bankers expressly admit they are targetting savers.

However, people I have spoken to who work in IT on trading floors at investment banks (only 2 people, albeit at separate banks) is that everyone is expecting things to get messy sooner or later. Again, though, know one knows, as everything is dependent on government/central bank actions, and people's expectations of those actions.

However, to me this still doesn't explain house prices. I don't think house prices are driven by 'informed actors', unlike the various financial markets. However, if the FSA does bring in sensible lending regulations, this will make prices fall. I just don't think they'll bring in any regulations, as the recent Michael Coogan/CML press release, and the coverage it received in the press gave a taste of the lobbying backlash to come.

Edited by WageslaveX14

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However, to me this still doesn't explain house prices. I don't think house prices are driven by 'informed actors', unlike the various financial markets.

this makes the chances of a bubble happening even greater, not less

the bubble will deflate because it is there, simple as, eventually

not bringing in regulations will not prevent the current bubble popping, instead it will simply increase the risk of another on in the future

Edited by Si1

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However, people I have spoken to who work in IT on trading floors at investment banks (only 2 people, albeit at separate banks) is that everyone is expecting things to get messy sooner or later. Again, though, know one knows, as everything is dependent on government/central bank actions, and people's expectations of those actions.

Where's Donald Rumsfeld when you need him?

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I think people do have a tendency to look at everything in a bearish fashion, partly because most people on this forum are cash rich (comparatively) and asset poor, and because people are optimistic by default (i.e. a bear scenario suits most people on here's circumstances, so it is optimistic to believe the bear case).

However, this is only part of the story. Most people on here are better informed about economic matters than your average punter, and the fundamentals underlying almost everything are AWFUL.

What is stopping financial market asset prices cratering is the suspicion that further QE is an inevitability, and the belief that governments will decide to favour debt-laden asset holders over asset-poor holders of cash. This may be true, but no one knows for certain. The political tide may turn, especially when central bankers expressly admit they are targetting savers.

However, people I have spoken to who work in IT on trading floors at investment banks (only 2 people, albeit at separate banks) is that everyone is expecting things to get messy sooner or later. Again, though, know one knows, as everything is dependent on government/central bank actions, and people's expectations of those actions.

However, to me this still doesn't explain house prices. I don't think house prices are driven by 'informed actors', unlike the various financial markets. However, if the FSA does bring in sensible lending regulations, this will make prices fall. I just don't think they'll bring in any regulations, as the recent Michael Coogan/CML press release, and the coverage it received in the press gave a taste of the lobbying backlash to come.

Thanks for a very interesting and informative post.

When I worked in the City in IT in a bank I was aware that the IT boys tended to be very clued up on the true state of things - many seemed to be doing deals for financial info in exchange to making sure that certain traders' IT needs were always dealth with first. The traders realising that they needed top IT to keep ahead of the game.

So what you say is very interesting.

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Thanks for a very interesting and informative post.

When I worked in the City in IT in a bank I was aware that the IT boys tended to be very clued up on the true state of things - many seemed to be doing deals for financial info in exchange to making sure that certain traders' IT needs were always dealth with first. The traders realising that they needed top IT to keep ahead of the game.

So what you say is very interesting.

Agreed.

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this makes the chances of a bubble happening even greater, not less

the bubble will deflate because it is there, simple as, eventually

not bringing in regulations will not prevent the current bubble popping, instead it will simply increase the risk of another on in the future

The stock bubble burst in 2000 when equities were on P/Es of 25-40 for the Dow/FTSE and 100 times to infinity for the tech stocks.

Posters here talk such rubbish on the markets.

The real bubble is in bonds that bottomed in 1981 and have been on a 29 year bull market ever since.

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The stock bubble burst in 2000 when equities were on P/Es of 25-40 for the Dow/FTSE and 100 times to infinity for the tech stocks.

Posters here talk such rubbish on the markets.

The real bubble is in bonds that bottomed in 1981 and have been on a 29 year bull market ever since.

my 'bubble will burst' comment was on the sub-sub-topic of house prices - I am highly invested in stocks so I would agree with you!!! ;)

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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