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War Declared On Forex

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/30092010/389/currency-war-mean-fx-investors.html

What does a currency war mean for FX investors?

By Kathleen "Kath" Brooks, Director of Research UK, Forex.com
When he warned of international currency wars earlier this week, Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega coined a phrase that could become the main FX theme for the rest of the year. He said interventions and devaluations were a problem for Brazils competitiveness. As a big exporter of raw materials, no wonder he is worrying about the strength of the currency. The Brazilian real has appreciated the most against the dollar versus a basket of developed and developing currencies since the start of 2009.
We have heard this argument before: when US authorities complain about China keeping the Yuan pegged to the dollar generating massive fiscal imbalances between the two nations. But the argument has now widened and even the US could be blamed for trying to keep the dollar weak. Japan and the Swiss authorities have directly intervened in their currencies in recent months, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are toying with the idea of further monetary stimulus to boost their flagging economies. Both actions tend to lead to currency depreciation.

As demand contracts and oversupply/overcapicity looms the winner will be the most competetive.

The US appear to have been driving up the Euro to disable Germany and the Japs have been trying the same with everyone else to get back in the game.

Who wins? The one who buys the most, of course.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/30092010/389/currency-war-mean-fx-investors.html

What does a currency war mean for FX investors?

By Kathleen "Kath" Brooks, Director of Research UK, Forex.com
When he warned of “international currency wars” earlier this week, Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega coined a phrase that could become the main FX theme for the rest of the year. He said interventions and devaluations were a problem for Brazil’s competitiveness. As a big exporter of raw materials, no wonder he is worrying about the strength of the currency. The Brazilian real has appreciated the most against the dollar versus a basket of developed and developing currencies since the start of 2009.
We have heard this argument before: when US authorities complain about China keeping the Yuan pegged to the dollar generating massive fiscal imbalances between the two nations. But the argument has now widened and even the US could be blamed for trying to keep the dollar weak. Japan and the Swiss authorities have directly intervened in their currencies in recent months, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are toying with the idea of further monetary stimulus to boost their flagging economies. Both actions tend to lead to currency depreciation.

As demand contracts and oversupply/overcapicity looms the winner will be the most competetive.

The US appear to have been driving up the Euro to disable Germany and the Japs have been trying the same with everyone else to get back in the game.

Who wins? The one who buys the most, of course.

I thought that they were all trying to drive down the value of their currencies, in which case the winner of that race is the one who SELLS the most of their own newly printed currency.

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I thought that they were all trying to drive down the value of their currencies, in which case the winner of that race is the one who SELLS the most of their own newly printed currency.

Not quite, the winner is he who holds the currency that can't be devalued. :ph34r:

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I thought that they were all trying to drive down the value of their currencies, in which case the winner of that race is the one who SELLS the most of their own newly printed currency.

As the US buys the most the others dare not overprice themselves.

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Not quite, the winner is he who holds the currency that can't be devalued. :ph34r:

Gold is down today.

Which means I am just going to have to put some more tungsten into my bars before I sell them to the Chinese.

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1 GBP = $: 1.57026

Euro1.15527

Sterling is headed toward a record drop vs. the $ today--it almost hit 1.59 earlier and about to break below 1.57. Cant see why the Euro is up verses £ though. I would be dumping Euros faster than some poor sod who ate a cake iced with Exlax.

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1 GBP = $: 1.57026

Euro1.15527

Sterling is headed toward a record drop vs. the $ today--it almost hit 1.59 earlier and about to break below 1.57. Cant see why the Euro is up verses £ though. I would be dumping Euros faster than some poor sod who ate a cake iced with Exlax.

Wasnt there a story about the Germans putting a stop to the ECB's QE stuff? That would account for the rise in the Euro. Sorry no link, I bet someone else can find it.

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Wasnt there a story about the Germans putting a stop to the ECB's QE stuff? That would account for the rise in the Euro. Sorry no link, I bet someone else can find it.

Manipulation going on:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8033506/ECB-hawks-spook-debt-markets.html

ECB hawks spook debt markets

Eurozone experts are increasingly worried that the European Central Bank (ECB) is moving too fast in pulling the prop from under the financial systems of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, risking a repeat of the premature tightening in mid-2008 that ended in grief.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8033335/Are-we-heading-for-a-replay-of-1930s.html

..../

QE has proved a highly effective way of devaluing the dollar, and is actually a much more powerful form of persuasion than the threat of import tariffs. Just the prospect of more of it has set the dollar reeling afresh. This in turn piles the pressure on China and other Asian economies to accept a higher exchange rate.

Britain is embarked on much the same policy as the US; devaluation forms a key part of its strategy for economic recovery. So far, there has been surprisingly little complaint from Europe about this, but then Britain still runs a substantial trade deficit with the eurozone and in any case, Europe has rather bigger problems on its plate right now.

The chatter, and the evidence from market spreads, would suggest Europe's sovereign debt crisis is about to reach a new crescendo. Ireland and Portugal threaten to follow Greece in requiring a combined European/IMF bailout the latest rescue package for Irish banks has been condemned as inadequate and unaffordable even before it has been announced while in Spain yesterday there was a general strike in protest at austerity measures. Europe seems to be falling apart. Again, I don't want to underestimate the risks.

Edited by Realistbear

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1 GBP = $: 1.57026

Euro1.15527

Sterling is headed toward a record drop vs. the $ today--it almost hit 1.59 earlier and about to break below 1.57. Cant see why the Euro is up verses £ though. I would be dumping Euros faster than some poor sod who ate a cake iced with Exlax.

I love all the dramatic language in Forex trading.

On the first trading day of the new year:

In 1990 £1 got you $1.61

In 2000 £1 got you $1.613

In 2010 £1 got you $1.62

It has hovered around $1.6 for the best part of 20 years with some rises and falls along the way but always returning to pretty much the same level.

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I love all the dramatic language in Forex trading.

On the first trading day of the new year:

In 1990 £1 got you $1.61

In 2000 £1 got you $1.613

In 2010 £1 got you $1.62

It has hovered around $1.6 for the best part of 20 years with some rises and falls along the way but always returning to pretty much the same level.

Its a question of timing I suppose.

I sold Sterling in 1991 for around 2.05 (just before Big George dumped his billion in £s) when emigrating to the US and am waiting to buy back. It hit 2.13 about 3 years ago when the end of the USA was a sure thing according to some on here. I recall it almost at parity in about 1976. It hit a momentary low of 1.35 last year which is when I should have bought--but thats another wouda-couda-shouda story.

But I think you are right--LT its comfortable in the 1.50-60 range.

A lot of traders are saying the spotlight will be back on Sterling later this year. BNP Paribas said the high 1.30s after the shinola hits the fan and the cuts become real. I will take 1.48 ish.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/30092010/389/currency-war-mean-fx-investors.html

What does a currency war mean for FX investors?

By Kathleen "Kath" Brooks, Director of Research UK, Forex.com
When he warned of “international currency wars” earlier this week, Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega coined a phrase that could become the main FX theme for the rest of the year. He said interventions and devaluations were a problem for Brazil’s competitiveness. As a big exporter of raw materials, no wonder he is worrying about the strength of the currency. The Brazilian real has appreciated the most against the dollar versus a basket of developed and developing currencies since the start of 2009.
We have heard this argument before: when US authorities complain about China keeping the Yuan pegged to the dollar generating massive fiscal imbalances between the two nations. But the argument has now widened and even the US could be blamed for trying to keep the dollar weak. Japan and the Swiss authorities have directly intervened in their currencies in recent months, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are toying with the idea of further monetary stimulus to boost their flagging economies. Both actions tend to lead to currency depreciation.

As demand contracts and oversupply/overcapicity looms the winner will be the most competetive.

The US appear to have been driving up the Euro to disable Germany and the Japs have been trying the same with everyone else to get back in the game.

Who wins? The one who buys the most, of course.

The UK has won - plain and simple we are the winners. These putz's have no idea how to play the game, it takes years of pissing away generations of hard work on coke, hookers and over priced house to win.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/30092010/389/currency-war-mean-fx-investors.html

What does a currency war mean for FX investors?

By Kathleen "Kath" Brooks, Director of Research UK, Forex.com
There really isn't any such thing as an
investor
in the FX market. You simply have speculators on one end and businesses/countries that are hedging on the other. That's what is so worrying about the exponential growth of this market; there is no investment aspect. Bad juju.
Recovery ain't gonna happen until money goes to investment, rather than speculation, and that's somewhere other than the FX market.

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Them that short whatever currency just got an artiifical boost through CB intervention.

That will the the $ first followed by the UK and the EU--Japan having already done so.

Buy what? They are all in it together to boost the Chinese currency.

Sterling dropping vs. Euro:

1.14713

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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