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Misanthrope

Nationwide Q3 2010

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Two things, first this is not a house price index, it is a peek of their new mortgage book and how they are lending/overlending. Secondly look at the regional breakdown and see haow they have been pissing money up the London wall.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Two things, first this is not a house price index, it is a peek of their new mortgage book and how they are lending/overlending. Secondly look at the regional breakdown and see haow they have been pissing money up the London wall.

On point one - I agree with your cynicism.

On point two - Glad you spotted that sourcing from the CML. Lending into London has increased by circa 45% on the change. The next highest region has only experienced an increase of 15%. Tells a story doesn't it, onlyme. When London goes, which it will, then...

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On point one - I agree with your cynicism.

On point two - Glad you spotted that sourcing from the CML. Lending into London has increased by circa 45% on the change. The next highest region has only experienced an increase of 15%. Tells a story doesn't it, onlyme. When London goes, which it will, then...

Indeed. The coming falls in London are going to be SPECTACULAR!!!

popcorn_2.gif

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Indeed. The coming falls in London are going to be SPECTACULAR!!!

popcorn_2.gif

I completely disagree. London will be hit the least, alongside the South East commuter belt, which is taken up by London workers.

Did anyone see on BBC News last night, a bit about how the Chinese are coming over and buying properties in London? First we had the Russians and the Arabs, and now we have the Chinese.

Then you've got developments like Candy & Candy's 'One Hyde Park', which sell exclusively to the world's billionaires.

In poorer regions we'll see price drops. In areas like London and the South East we won't see massive falls. Some places might drop, for example East London is all over the place at the moment, but other nicer areas will hold their value, or have minimal drops.

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I completely disagree. London will be hit the least, alongside the South East commuter belt, which is taken up by London workers.

IMO London will be hit, but only when the £ strengthens and it makes sense for the foreigners to cash in their investments.

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In poorer regions we'll see price drops. In areas like London and the South East we won't see massive falls. Some places might drop, for example East London is all over the place at the moment, but other nicer areas will hold their value, or have minimal drops.

People always say that at market tops. "Lower quality X might lose its value, but there will always be demand for good quality X so this will hold it value." And yet history shows that, if anything, the more expensive end of the market is likely to fall further than the bottom end in percentage terms during a crash because the expensive end is more exposed to the credit that is being wiped out. When the financial sector finally implodes, there will be pretty much nothing holding London prices above £100k because the wage gap between City workers and ordinary punters is so wide.

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People always say that at market tops. "Lower quality X might lose its value, but there will always be demand for good quality X so this will hold it value." And yet history shows that, if anything, the more expensive end of the market is likely to fall further than the bottom end in percentage terms during a crash because the expensive end is more exposed to the credit that is being wiped out. When the financial sector finally implodes, there will be pretty much nothing holding London prices above £100k because the wage gap between City workers and ordinary punters is so wide.

When there is choice in the market then the good stuff sells and the crap stuff doesn't that means when there is choice and the market is static the actual value is improving, thus even with static prices a per this index prices are actually falling in real terms as there is no adjustment for the quality/position/desirabilty of the houses that are selling.

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People always say that at market tops. "Lower quality X might lose its value, but there will always be demand for good quality X so this will hold it value."

By "good quality" the media daaarlings are talking about London townhouses, cottages in the Cotswolds, big houses with land in Tonbridge Wells etc. Premium houses which in reality make up a small percentage of the stock.

The thing is, even if they fall from, say, £600k down to £300k (50% crash), I still think that's a ridiculous sum of money to pay for a pile of bricks and I'm not prepared to enslave myself to the bank for it. Others may be and they are welcome to this "high quality" housing.

If, on the other hand, "the average" property drops from £160k to £80k then that's a reasonable sum relative to the value it delivers to me. That crash would literally change my life in terms of freedom it would afford. If I could pick up one of those in a non chav infested area with some prospect of a commutable job, I'll tear their hand off for it.

Falls at the bottom end are where it's at for me.

I see some of the posters here waiting for falls so they can buy £300k houses. What's the point in that? You're just as much a slave if you owe £300k to the bank than you are if you owe £500k. It's an absurd amount of money (unless you have significant deposit, in which case, knock yourself out.

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By "good quality" the media daaarlings are talking about London townhouses, cottages in the Cotswolds, big houses with land in Tonbridge Wells etc. Premium houses which in reality make up a small percentage of the stock.

The thing is, even if they fall from, say, £600k down to £300k (50% crash), I still think that's a ridiculous sum of money to pay for a pile of bricks and I'm not prepared to enslave myself to the bank for it. Others may be and they are welcome to this "high quality" housing.

If, on the other hand, "the average" property drops from £160k to £80k then that's a reasonable sum relative to the value it delivers to me. That crash would literally change my life in terms of freedom it would afford. If I could pick up one of those in a non chav infested area with some prospect of a commutable job, I'll tear their hand off for it.

Falls at the bottom end are where it's at for me.

I see some of the posters here waiting for falls so they can buy £300k houses. What's the point in that? You're just as much a slave if you owe £300k to the bank than you are if you owe £500k. It's an absurd amount of money (unless you have significant deposit, in which case, knock yourself out.

A lot of people already have $300K in the bank.......

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A lot of people already have $300K in the bank.......

I keep my Z$100 trillion in a drawer as a hedge against counterparty risk.

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I completely disagree. London will be hit the least, alongside the South East commuter belt, which is taken up by London workers.

According to John D Wood EA in C London, high end down 21% in H1 2010. You're so wrong.

See Kens and Holland Park

Edited by Killer Bunny

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I completely disagree. London will be hit the least, alongside the South East commuter belt, which is taken up by London workers.

Did anyone see on BBC News last night, a bit about how the Chinese are coming over and buying properties in London? First we had the Russians and the Arabs, and now we have the Chinese.

Then you've got developments like Candy & Candy's 'One Hyde Park', which sell exclusively to the world's billionaires.

In poorer regions we'll see price drops. In areas like London and the South East we won't see massive falls. Some places might drop, for example East London is all over the place at the moment, but other nicer areas will hold their value, or have minimal drops.

what a busted banking sector keeps employing at rediculous salaries.

Im sure the Inca Cities never collapsed under their own consumption either.

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I keep my Z$100 trillion in a drawer as a hedge against counterparty risk.

makes an excellent insulator in your cardboard box under the Railway Arches too.

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makes an excellent insulator in your cardboard box under the Railway Arches too.

Believe me, cold is the worst enemy when you're on the streets. Can go 3 days without food, but the cold comes every night and hunger saps resistance.

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Did anyone see on BBC News last night, a bit about how the Chinese are coming over and buying properties in London? First we had the Russians and the Arabs, and now we have the Chinese.

so it's not a bubble because the chinese are buying them

right you are then

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so it's not a bubble because the chinese are buying them

right you are then

So long as it's keeping the national average up, the MSM are loving it.

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I completely disagree. London will be hit the least, alongside the South East commuter belt, which is taken up by London workers.

Did anyone see on BBC News last night, a bit about how the Chinese are coming over and buying properties in London? First we had the Russians and the Arabs, and now we have the Chinese.

Then you've got developments like Candy & Candy's 'One Hyde Park', which sell exclusively to the world's billionaires.

In poorer regions we'll see price drops. In areas like London and the South East we won't see massive falls. Some places might drop, for example East London is all over the place at the moment, but other nicer areas will hold their value, or have minimal drops.

Ok, I'm biting ....

This is pure rubbish! Do you honestly think that a few rich foreigners are going to support the entire South East and London housing markets? Get a grip. There will only be a few buyers and they'll only be buying the top end stuff, they won't be buying the 'rubbish' 2bed flats that are going to crash the hardest. Even foreign investors know the market is over valued, the pound is likely to fall and then they have the hassle of trying to let out a property when they're 1000s of miles away!

The bubble is the biggest down here and prices will crash hardest, very much like in the 90's when the london market crashed over 25% in nominal values!

:P

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  • 146 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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