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House Prices On Cusp Of Recovery

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Thanks again to Calcaria:

House prices on cusp of recovery

House prices in the UK could soon be experiencing positive annual price inflation according to figures released by SmartNewHomes.com.

In their monthly report analysing over 85 per cent of the new homes stock available in the UK over the last month, SmartNewHomes.com reveals that prices rose on average by 0.4% in August 2005 but are still 5.6% lower than at the same time last year. However, three monthly changes – more indicative of longer-term movements in the market – show a propensity towards positive growth. Prices over this period have been continuously rising by increasing increments for the past seven months and now post a 2.1% increase – the highest so far this year.

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We are going to have to get used to this: VIs have been telling us for the last year that the market isn't sinking, now they've shifted to OK it was sinking recently but it is on the verge of picking up again.

I suspect over the next 3-4 years this is going to be reminiscent of a broken record, as any titbit that can be spun to sound positive is exploited to the max. Just like the last time...

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Thanks again to Calcaria:

House prices on cusp of recovery

House prices in the UK could soon be experiencing positive annual price inflation according to figures released by SmartNewHomes.com.

lol, yeah, because the huge national debt will be wiped out overnight and everyone will get 500% payrises making £150k for a snotbox look reasonable.

Of course, a Mars bar will also cost £10 to put the value of the pound into perspective.

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As we all know these sorts of 'stories' are rubbish. I work for a dot com (not anything to do with the housing market and which will remain nameless) we pay somebody to place stories in the media to get our name mentioned. Most of the statistics etc he uses are meaningless but the papers lap them up!!

Edited by since the beginning

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lol, yeah, because the huge national debt will be wiped out overnight and everyone will get 500% payrises making £150k for a snotbox look reasonable.

Of course, a Mars bar will also cost £10 to put the value of the pound into perspective.

So spot on! :lol:

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Thanks again to Calcaria:

House prices on cusp of recovery

House prices in the UK could soon be experiencing positive annual price inflation according to figures released by SmartNewHomes.com.

 

In their monthly report analysing over 85 per cent of the new homes stock available in the UK over the last month, SmartNewHomes.com reveals that prices rose on average by 0.4% in August 2005 but are still 5.6% lower than at the same time last year. However, three monthly changes – more indicative of longer-term movements in the market – show a propensity towards positive growth. Prices over this period have been continuously rising by increasing increments for the past seven months and now post a 2.1% increase – the highest so far this year.

How does this work? The market started to go properly negative in around May/June (thats about three months ago), but somehow we have three consequetive monthly increases ??? is this in exchange prices? reservation prices? or advertised hope?

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Britain reached £1 trillion debt in June 2004 - and it made the news.

Recently it reached £1.1 trillion - not a mention.

That's an extra

100,000,000,000

of debt

and no-one seems to give a monkeys.

Keep borrowing boys and keep spending - it's the only way we can stay afloat.

But where has that 100 billion come from?

Thin air. But don't worry, we can print plenty more.

There was a time when this would have caused massive inflation - can't see why it is isn't now - apart from the endlessly massaged figures.

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There was a time when this would have caused massive inflation - can't see why it is isn't now - apart from the endlessly massaged figures.

Amongst other things:

Government lies.

Cheap Chinese imports.

Companies sucking up the losses rather than increase prices and lose out to competitors.

Cheap money going into assets like houses rather than real world goods. After all, house price rises aren't inflation, are they?

If all that money did come out of assets into real world goods we'd see massive inflation and interest rates would be useless to control it.

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Thanks again to Calcaria:

House prices on cusp of recovery

House prices in the UK could soon be experiencing positive annual price inflation according to figures released by SmartNewHomes.com.

 

In their monthly report analysing over 85 per cent of the new homes stock available in the UK over the last month, SmartNewHomes.com reveals that prices rose on average by 0.4% in August 2005 but are still 5.6% lower than at the same time last year. However, three monthly changes – more indicative of longer-term movements in the market – show a propensity towards positive growth. Prices over this period have been continuously rising by increasing increments for the past seven months and now post a 2.1% increase – the highest so far this year.

I wondered when the "cusp" word would be trotted out.

"I know, let's use words that boffins and eggheads use. 'Cusp'. That's a good one. It sounds all scientificy and mathematical and that. They'll fall for that."

"Good idea old chap. Remind me of this come your salary review."

Fandans.

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As we all know these sorts of 'stories' are rubbish. I work for a dot com (not anything to do with the housing market and which will remain nameless) we pay somebody to place stories in the media to get our name mentioned. Most of the statistics etc he uses are meaningless but the papers lap them up!!

You'd be surprised just how much 'news' we read is actually made up of strategically placed press releases from corporate PR departments.

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Thanks again to Calcaria:

House prices on cusp of recovery

House prices in the UK could soon be experiencing positive annual price inflation according to figures released by SmartNewHomes.com.

 

In their monthly report analysing over 85 per cent of the new homes stock available in the UK over the last month, SmartNewHomes.com reveals that prices rose on average by 0.4% in August 2005 but are still 5.6% lower than at the same time last year. However, three monthly changes – more indicative of longer-term movements in the market – show a propensity towards positive growth. Prices over this period have been continuously rising by increasing increments for the past seven months and now post a 2.1% increase – the highest so far this year.

Funny that...

I'm in the middle of a email conversation from someone from smartnewhomes - wriglesworth consultant no less, i asked them for their reasoning a while back.. quite funny really.

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Funny that...

I'm in the middle of a email conversation from someone from smartnewhomes - wriglesworth consultant no less, i asked them for their reasoning a while back.. quite funny really.

Every house price index uses different methods to gather and calculate its figures which is why they all report different things. Although you quote Hometrack as reporting a 3.7% annual fall in prices, Nationwide quote an annual house price inflation of 2.3% - the same rate as reported by the Halifax last month. The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister’s (ODPM) statistics report even higher figures – an increase of 5.28% from the beginning of the year to date. 

Within the context of these indices and considering that we are entering what we believe to be a busier few months for the market, we believe that our comments that it would be realistic to predict growth of around 5% are fundamentally valid.

Once again, thank you for your comments and I hope you will continue to find the SmartNewHomes.com website useful and informative.

Edited by theChuz

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I wondered when the "cusp" word would be trotted out.

"I know, let's use words that boffins and eggheads use. 'Cusp'. That's a good one. It sounds all scientificy and mathematical and that. They'll fall for that."

...cusp certainly sounds like a new buzzword.

but is this the same cusp we were supposed to have in march or a different,lower down cusp?

...and cusp does sound slightly SOFTER than PRECEPICE doesn't it.

someone standing on the cusp of a clifftop and thin air is likely to have a bit of a tumble if the wind blows ill or they lose their footing arent they!

BESIDES,IT'S A FLUFFY LANDING NOW.

Edited by oracle

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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