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Toto deVeer

On The Ground Report : Banking Sector Turning South Fast....

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On the ground report from a New Yorker involved in investment there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f89ckIFQOfU

Overcapacity in banking, finance, stock brokerage, mortgage services to become more apparent very soon. Layoffs coming. This on-the-ground report corroborates Meredith Whitney's call that some 80,000 people will be layed-off in the near future in New York, London and surrounds.

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On the ground report from a New Yorker involved in investment there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f89ckIFQOfU

Overcapacity in banking, finance, stock brokerage, mortgage services to become more apparent very soon. Layoffs coming. This on-the-ground report corroborates Meredith Whitney's call that some 80,000 people will be layed-off in the near future in New York, London and surrounds.

He's only "on the ground" in as much as he lives there. All supposition and rumour. I don't doubt the next wave will happen but I do doubt we can call this now based on opinion followed by assumptions. The banking sector is still in rude health from whist I can see. Some tinkering round the edges with ops staff outsourcing but nothing like the scale of layoffs currently envisioned.

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He's only "on the ground" in as much as he lives there. All supposition and rumour. I don't doubt the next wave will happen but I do doubt we can call this now based on opinion followed by assumptions. The banking sector is still in rude health from whist I can see. Some tinkering round the edges with ops staff outsourcing but nothing like the scale of layoffs currently envisioned.

Hi there - a long time lurker, first time poster here. Just thought I'd put my 2p into this thread

Friend of a friend works for a large UK bank, said trading volumes were "f****g horrendous" and they were actively looking to make a large number of redundancies imminently. Therefore I suspect what this guy is saying is bang on.

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He's only "on the ground" in as much as he lives there. All supposition and rumour. I don't doubt the next wave will happen but I do doubt we can call this now based on opinion followed by assumptions. The banking sector is still in rude health from whist I can see. Some tinkering round the edges with ops staff outsourcing but nothing like the scale of layoffs currently envisioned.

Bos is your view UK centric or US centric?

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He's only "on the ground" in as much as he lives there. All supposition and rumour. I don't doubt the next wave will happen but I do doubt we can call this now based on opinion followed by assumptions. The banking sector is still in rude health from whist I can see. Some tinkering round the edges with ops staff outsourcing but nothing like the scale of layoffs currently envisioned.

UBS has hiring freeze, MS announced freeze today.

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Hi there - a long time lurker, first time poster here. Just thought I'd put my 2p into this thread

Friend of a friend works for a large UK bank, said trading volumes were "f****g horrendous" and they were actively looking to make a large number of redundancies imminently. Therefore I suspect what this guy is saying is bang on.

Hello and welcome to non-lurking land!

Which sector? Fixed income? Equities? PEF? Need some more context to understand his view... Alas it is a big market with many niches.

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Hi there - a long time lurker, first time poster here. Just thought I'd put my 2p into this thread

Friend of a friend works for a large UK bank, said trading volumes were "f****g horrendous" and they were actively looking to make a large number of redundancies imminently. Therefore I suspect what this guy is saying is bang on.

Not surpsied ZIRP / QE have bullshitted any value out of the market, the plebs are fed up of being scroomed by the trading boxes too.

No amount of funny money is going to fix this - the central banks are just piling malinvestment on top of rampant speculation leading to flight of capital. The UK is not worth investing in at these valuations, only a bit of asset and IP stripping which a collpasing currency will only encourage. Gun at the head intervention just like they did with housing for 10 years. The timescales between their incorrect actions and the negative feedback are getting very much shorter.

Moreover - feeding their banking mates billions has made top execcs even more envious than before - they will run "their" companies to produce commensurate gains for themselves. Shareholders are going to get screwed.

The End.

Edited by OnlyMe

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...

The UK is not worth investing in at these valuations, only a bit of asset and IP stripping which a collpasing currency will only encourage.

...

Not sure what part of the UK investing world you are referring to but maybe an alternative viewpoint on the FTSE100 as an investment place. At last count (04 August 10) using the cyclically adjusted PE it looks a lot better value than it has for the majority of the last 17 years.

Not saying I'm right and your wrong just offering an alternate thought as a long term investor (rather than trader).

http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-first-ftse-100-cyclically-adjusted.html

100804-1.jpg

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Not sure what part of the UK investing world you are referring to but maybe an alternative viewpoint on the FTSE100 as an investment place. At last count (04 August 10) using the cyclically adjusted PE it looks a lot better value than it has for the majority of the last 17 years.

Not saying I'm right and your wrong just offering an alternate thought as a long term investor (rather than trader).

http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/08/my-first-ftse-100-cyclically-adjusted.html

100804-1.jpg

Last 17 years - during one of the biggest ****** off bubbles where consumption has been grabbed from up to the next 50 years by some people to fund spending. There will be winnders and losers and some with good foreign markets, many taken out but at 3% ish yield they've just been artifically buoyed by aritifcial rates.

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Last 17 years - during one of the biggest ****** off bubbles where consumption has been grabbed from up to the next 50 years by some people to fund spending. There will be winnders and losers and some with good foreign markets, many taken out but at 3% ish yield they've just been artifically buoyed by aritifcial rates.

Don't disagree with what you say. As I said in my post I'm not saying you were wrong and I was right. More referring to the fact that over the last 17 years many people were prepared to buy into the market at a time when it was "overvalued" but now that it is at lower valuations (not saying over, under or fair valued) you are suggesting that now is not the right time to be buying. Did you own any UK equities in the last 17 years? What's to say the markets won't go up again like they did last time? How am I playing UK Equities? I have 18% of my net worth tied up in them because I don't know whether they will go up or down and so they form part of a number of what I hope are diversified assets.

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Don't disagree with what you say. As I said in my post I'm not saying you were wrong and I was right. More referring to the fact that over the last 17 years many people were prepared to buy into the market at a time when it was "overvalued" but now that it is at lower valuations (not saying over, under or fair valued) you are suggesting that now is not the right time to be buying. Did you own any UK equities in the last 17 years? What's to say the markets won't go up again like they did last time? How am I playing UK Equities? I have 18% of my net worth tied up in them because I don't know whether they will go up or down and so they form part of a number of what I hope are diversified assets.

No arguments, you certainly are not wrong having diversifiction, but the last 17 years is ot a representative guide onsidering what has happened.

What is the most liquid asset after cash - equities, forced to eat into capital which one is likely to go first. Then there is the demographics - pensioners generally have to cash out, then there is the new money - where is the money coming from to offset pension cash-outs?

All round, just don;t think either the equities market nor the prospoects for the cocmpanies themselves justify anything like ratings in the same ballpark as the last 20 years.

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..., but the last 17 years is ot a representative guide onsidering what has happened.

...

Very much agree with that. One only has to look to the US where I have much larger amounts of data. The chart shows the cyclically adjusted PE (PE10) showing how out of control its been, relative to history, over the last 15 years. Average PE10 for the whole dataset = 16.4, Average PE10 since 1995 = 27.9

http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/09/pe10-nears-its-80-percentile-s-500.html

100919-1.jpg

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Hi there - a long time lurker, first time poster here. Just thought I'd put my 2p into this thread

Friend of a friend works for a large UK bank, said trading volumes were "f****g horrendous" and they were actively looking to make a large number of redundancies imminently. Therefore I suspect what this guy is saying is bang on.

Thankyou for your £0.02 worth. I too see that they won't need all those people! :huh:

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Thankyou for your £0.02 worth. I too see that they won't need all those people! :huh:

clearly, this is why they are betting on QE.

The Central Banks very task in life is to preserve the banking system...needed or not.

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clearly, this is why they are betting on QE.

The Central Banks very task in life is to preserve the banking system...needed or not.

They are propping up the dysfunctional, malinvesting pig. They have not introduced ANY meanful legislation, the not fit for purpose banking system that created this mess is largely intact, making the same bonuses, ripping the guts out of the economy as before. This pig has asked for more money form the trough.

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According to a source I have at Silverwoman Carrier Bags, its coming up to their annual 5% of the bottom performing staff cull which normally gets replaced with new graduates.

Question is will GS replace their bottom 5%? I have friends who have been laid off from there back in 2007 some working for their top stars who still havent got back into city life such is the devestation of financial crisis.

Not as devestated as the construction industry - all builders have become zombie builders, literally having to build, just to get land values back to pay back bank debt.

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Value of shares traded on LSE falls by £800m a day.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8033481/Value-of-shares-traded-on-LSE-falls-by-800m-a-day.html

day

Trading volumes on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) are likely to be down in the second quarter, as the value of shares traded fell by £800m a day.

By Harry Wilson

Published: 6:15AM BST 30 Sep 2010

Comment

A man walks pass the London Stock Exchange in London

According to Thomson Reuters, the LSE's share of open trading in FTSE 100 shares fell to 50.9pc this August from 64.7pc in the same month last year Photo: AP

On average, £4.2bn-worth of shares were traded daily on the LSE in the last quarter, versus a daily average for the year of £5bn, according to statement issued by the exchange yesterday ahead of its November results announcement.

The slowdown was mirrored in the value of new issues, which at £17bn for the five months to the end of August was down 60pc on the same period in 2009, which benefited from a swathe of corporate recapitalisations.

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CMI Growth Index, SM predictor?, first segment of this audo blog and associated graph.

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/archives/395

Edit:

Also end of this broadcast - graph of inflation / stock market. You could say it was bullish, but only after having been wiped out by inflation, besides still think there is increasingly little comparison between situation now and previous economic cycles - this one has wiped out the core productive activity of the country and made a free for all for all the country's jobs - that is life / economy and country changing.

Edited by OnlyMe

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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