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The Masked Tulip

Land Registry August House Prices Up 0.3%

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Average price £167,423

Change Monthly 0.3%

Annual 6.7%

Swansea is different +1.4%, Cardiff -1.3%

Mainly tx agreed in Apr/May and the market was quite active. Seen a few overpriced properties completed on full asking price as well.

But as we all know, it is now done.

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about time one of us mentioned lag....

LAG

please for the love of god let it be the lag

Yes, of course it is lag but you will be hard-pressed to explain that to EAs, sellers and even many buyers who will now panic and dive in hence dragging this thing on for even longer.

Edit:

Assuming anyone can get a mortgage...

But hey, if you are a cash buyer then 0.3% growth, and up to 1.9% growth in some areas, beats nothing in the savings account.

Remember, these are virtually all pre-HIPs being abolished.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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about time one of us mentioned lag....

LAG

please for the love of god let it be the lag

Well there is a lag effect - August completions will reflect price negotiations in the spring.

By Christmas all these indices will be negative, but there will always be fluctuations in individual data points.

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Yes, of course it is lag but you will be hard-pressed to explain that to EAs, sellers and even many buyers who will now panic and dive in hence dragging this thing on for even longer.

I'd never heard of the Nationwide, Halifax or Land Registry indices until I joined HPC.

It certainly didn't influence my decisions to buy or sell property.

I think this site overestimates their impact.

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Before anyone gets too down about this, remember there is a lag of at least a couple of months and I think I'm right in saying the general consensus was that the turning point was around july/aug so the LR won't be showing neg quite yet. Give it a little time..

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I'd never heard of the Nationwide, Halifax or Land Registry indices until I joined HPC.

I'd heard of them but paid no attention to them , suspect 90%+ have never heard of them or pay little attention to these indices , the key is how will the media spin this especially the BBC , personally i hope they say F all about it .

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Don't forget this doesn't include auction sales and could well be skewed by cash incentives and the like.

It's not so bad for me Essex 0.0% Southend -1.0%

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I'd never heard of the Nationwide, Halifax or Land Registry indices until I joined HPC.

It certainly didn't influence my decisions to buy or sell property.

I think this site overestimates their impact.

To a certain extent I agree. Movements of +/- 0.3% month by month are hardly going to result in mass outbreaks of panic. However, when some of these indices show YoY going negative, then it will be picked up by MSM and given extensive coverage.

Hopefully with several indices using different methods and timescales to calculate the same basic fact, by Christmas there will be a steady stream of 'house prices now lower than a year ago' stories.

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To a certain extent I agree. Movements of +/- 0.3% month by month are hardly going to result in mass outbreaks of panic. However, when some of these indices show YoY going negative, then it will be picked up by MSM and given extensive coverage.

Hopefully with several indices using different methods and timescales to calculate the same basic fact, by Christmas there will be a steady stream of 'house prices now lower than a year ago' stories.

Could be as early as October for rightmove as anything less than 0.2% will result in YOY negative. Although it's unlikey it will be negative as it's not seasonally adjusted.

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This report has just been mentioned on BBC News. They highlighted the delay and the presenter pointed out that even if a buy secures a mortgage they are still paying a high rate despite the low base rate. They then went on to point out that these figures don’t really show where the market is headed. Overall the Beeb’s line was bearish. I think they’re beginning to get it.

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This report has just been mentioned on BBC News. They highlighted the delay and the presenter pointed out that even if a buy secures a mortgage they are still paying a high rate despite the low base rate. They then went on to point out that these figures don’t really show where the market is headed. Overall the Beeb’s line was bearish. I think they’re beginning to get it.

I don't believe you, I'd this an attempt at sarcastic humour?

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3 things about the LR data:

1. It reflected what was happennig about 6 months ago.

2. It failsto factor the cost of improvements where houses have changed hands relatively recently.

3. It is not an accurate guage over a short term period as it may reflect fewer, more expensive, properties changing hands which is more likely in scenarios where transaction numbers are down.

4. Auction sales are excluded and these have been increasing substantially.

That said, there was a bit of a pick up early Spring. FTR prices are down about 15% in my area (properties in the £250-£300k range).

Edited by Realistbear

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The change for last month has also been revised, from +0.4% to +0.6%.

http://www1.landregi...=27&image2.y=16

Also, today's data measures sales made in August. Not all of these have yet been notified to the LR, which is why they have to update the index in the back room. This index does not lag by 3 months as often quoted, but by four weeks from the month end (ie up to 59 days if you completed on the first of August).

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I'd never heard of the Nationwide, Halifax or Land Registry indices until I joined HPC.

It certainly didn't influence my decisions to buy or sell property.

I think this site overestimates their impact.

And with so few transactions, they're even more meaningless...until you factor how much they're used to spin a picture of a healthy, rising market. Sheeple sentiment is vital and it's frustrating to endure stats like this when we know the market is far from rosy.

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This report has just been mentioned on BBC News. They highlighted the delay and the presenter pointed out that even if a buy secures a mortgage they are still paying a high rate despite the low base rate. They then went on to point out that these figures don’t really show where the market is headed. Overall the Beeb’s line was bearish. I think they’re beginning to get it.

Perhaps it depends on which BBC employee is at the PC at any given moment, publishing / editing the stories:

One day it might be Charlotte: blond, 27, graduated with 20K debts, no bank of mum & dad to help out, frustrated wannabe FTB...

And another day it'll be Simon: fat, balding, 49, smug to the t!ts that he bought an investment flat in Clapham 10 years ago, but now slightly panicky...

<_<

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And with so few transactions, they're even more meaningless...until you factor how much they're used to spin a picture of a healthy, rising market. Sheeple sentiment is vital and it's frustrating to endure stats like this when we know the market is far from rosy.

Agree that sentiment is vital (at least to the TIMING of any falls - the fundamentals are why prices will fall)

And clearly these news articles do have SOME effect, but I think that sentiment is affected far more by people fearing losing their job than by some statistics they hear on the radio.

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Agree that sentiment is vital (at least to the TIMING of any falls - the fundamentals are why prices will fall)

And clearly these news articles do have SOME effect, but I think that sentiment is affected far more by people fearing losing their job than by some statistics they hear on the radio.

I agree. A friend of my partners parents works for the local council. They had a meeting recently and were told several middle managerial jobs were going and that everyone else had to re apply for their current jobs but at a lower pay band. Which means he will end up on £200 a month less.

I think it will take a while for things like this to start really effecting sentiment.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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