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Toto deVeer

Warning! Major Crash Coming, S&p Will Fall To 150-200

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Well here we are....Elliot Wave Theorist predicts that Sept 23 will prove to be the peak for many years, with S&P eventually dropping to the 150-200 range. Here's the details....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoQ7LcYuwIg

Scary stuff...

Here's my take. I think that Joe Investor/Speculator is gonna get caught in the mother of all reversals. The elections coming in America are going to sweep control away from the spend and tax crowd that has dominated there. Forty million Americans are on food stamps, and another 40 million are on the edge. People are fed up. All the economic team (Summers, Orzag, Romer) are bailing, must be a big worry for Turbo Timmy and Bennie. The incoming Repubs are talking about issuing subpoenas to Obama re birth certificate if they become a majority. Don't forget that SIGTARP has 40 prosecution cases under review, maybe he's waiting until Congress is more supportive to proceed. This could completely paralyse politics there and hamstring the Fed as well. At the moment the market is expecting QE2; what they may instead get is trade wars, a paralysed US gov't and no QE...

Edited by Toto deVeer

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Well here we are....Elliot Wave Theorist predicts that Sept 23 will prove to be the peak for many years, with S&P eventually dropping to the 150-200 range. Here's the details....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoQ7LcYuwIg

Scary stuff...

Here's my take. I think that Joe Investor/Speculator is gonna get caught in the mother of all reversals. The elections coming in America are going to sweep control away from the spend and tax crowd that has dominated there. Forty million Americans are on food stamps, and another 40 million are on the edge. People are fed up. All the economic team (Summers, Orzag, Romer) are bailing, must be a big worry for Turbo Timmy and Bennie. The incoming Repubs are talking about issuing subpoenas to Obama re birth certificate if they become a majority. This could completely paralyse politics there and hamstring the Fed as well. At the moment the market is expecting QE2; what they may instead get is trade wars, a paralysed US gov't and no QE...

Trade wars have begun. See the currency FT thread.

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indeedy,what chance QE2 announced before the mid terms?

Actually, QE2 has not specifically been called for by the Fed, They have only said they would do everything they could to support the economy. But what does that really mean?

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I am scared now. I was going to go to bed but now I might just sit here stunned for 2 years waiting for 'it' to happen.

I don;t own a house so where can I store my physical gold when I buy it - do I throw my baked beans out.

Joking aside, is this good advice or just another 'nutter' on the Internet. He seems very convinced of his argument but, to quote Life of Brian, I know the odd Messiah as I have followed a few! :unsure:

I think he is not a nutter... but I worry that I am being lured in by the gold bugs.

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Hmmm. Not sure about the idea that, on the one hand, they say the S&P will fall to 1-200 in nominal amount (I realise it's an index calculated in points, but it does have a correlation with actual share prices denominated in dollars - at least as far as I understand it), whilst also saying that gold is the only way to protect yourself against the actions of government, implyingo or even expressing, that the fall that they have talked about is in real terms, and not nominal money terms.

Those two points don't seem to add up to me, but I might have misunderstood how the S&P index is calculated.

Also, Prechter has been advising people to stay in cash and treasuries - this doesn't seem to tally with the gold recommendation.

Basically, I am sceptical as hell about Elliot Wave, and 'technical' analysis in general, but as I have just posted on another thread, I am starting to panic.

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Hmmm. Not sure about the idea that, on the one hand, they say the S&P will fall to 1-200 in nominal amount (I realise it's an index calculated in points, but it does have a correlation with actual share prices denominated in dollars - at least as far as I understand it), whilst also saying that gold is the only way to protect yourself against the actions of government, implyingo or even expressing, that the fall that they have talked about is in real terms, and not nominal money terms.

Those two points don't seem to add up to me, but I might have misunderstood how the S&P index is calculated.

Also, Prechter has been advising people to stay in cash and treasuries - this doesn't seem to tally with the gold recommendation.

Basically, I am sceptical as hell about Elliot Wave, and 'technical' analysis in general, but as I have just posted on another thread, I am starting to panic.

I probably just need a hug. And a whisky.

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Hmmm. Not sure about the idea that, on the one hand, they say the S&P will fall to 1-200 in nominal amount (I realise it's an index calculated in points, but it does have a correlation with actual share prices denominated in dollars - at least as far as I understand it), whilst also saying that gold is the only way to protect yourself against the actions of government, implyingo or even expressing, that the fall that they have talked about is in real terms, and not nominal money terms.

Those two points don't seem to add up to me, but I might have misunderstood how the S&P index is calculated.

Also, Prechter has been advising people to stay in cash and treasuries - this doesn't seem to tally with the gold recommendation.

Basically, I am sceptical as hell about Elliot Wave, and 'technical' analysis in general, but as I have just posted on another thread, I am starting to panic.

Cash is ok, but it's picking the winning horse, some curruncies will get crushed. Will the Dollar benifit from the flight to safety, along with the Swiss franc,Yen.

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I am scared now. I was going to go to bed but now I might just sit here stunned for 2 years waiting for 'it' to happen.

I don;t own a house so where can I store my physical gold when I buy it - do I throw my baked beans out.

Joking aside, is this good advice or just another 'nutter' on the Internet. He seems very convinced of his argument but, to quote Life of Brian, I know the odd Messiah as I have followed a few! :unsure:

I think he is not a nutter... but I worry that I am being lured in by the gold bugs.

The analysis seems pretty reasonable. Prechter has called the reversals brilliantly during the last 3 years, if you'd followed his advice during this time you would have done very well. But Prechter also thinks that there will be a decline of this magnitude before this is over. He's advising extreme caution for the moment, and to be in cash. He's not supported gold during this time which is probably the one call he's been consistently wrong on. But had you followed his other calls you would have out performed gold during the same period anyway.

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I reckon this ridiculous nonsense will be proved wrong at the first opportunity close of play Friday.

what a load of old s****

do chartists adjust for inflation - or would they to make their voodoo fit better on an adhoc basis?

and is it really all done on an etch a sketch? ??

(may not happen tomorrow, this month or next month.... spoooooookeeeeeyyyy)

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It surprized me to learn the one of the greatest mathematicians of our generation, Benoit Mandelbrot, has concluded that prices contain a memory of past events, and that there is some merit in technical chart analysis. His book, 'The (Mis)Behavior of Markets' is just outstanding.

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err......QE2..

Whilst I'm a believer in charts, I have a stronger belief in fundamentals. Whilst policy response is to inflate, the indices will rally due to the fact that they chiefly comprise of commodity related stocks.

If you see the price of gold, copper, iron ore, nickel etc in $ declining, then fair call. Whilst the powers that be destroy fiat currencies to reduce the real debt burden, I remain bullish on my commodity-related investments.

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It surprized me to learn the one of the greatest mathematicians of our generation, Benoit Mandelbrot, has concluded that prices contain a memory of past events, and that there is some merit in technical chart analysis. His book, 'The (Mis)behavior of Markets' is just outstanding.

well there must be a memory, but how on earth an Etch a Sketch can predict a complex adaptive system is anybody's guess - here's mine, it can't

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err......QE2..

This is not something about which I'm convinced. By the end of November, Ben will be facing a much more hostile Congress. There will be increasing pressure for audits, transparency etc. Life is going to get a lot more difficult, and if Borofsky gets backing from the new Congress it is possible that Bennie and Timmie will be called to testify. I don't expect Timmie to make it full term anyway.

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The analysis seems pretty reasonable. Prechter has called the reversals brilliantly during the last 3 years, if you'd followed his advice during this time you would have done very well. But Prechter also thinks that there will be a decline of this magnitude before this is over. He's advising extreme caution for the moment, and to be in cash. He's not supported gold during this time which is probably the one call he's been consistently wrong on. But had you followed his other calls you would have out performed gold during the same period anyway.

Pardon me - but B0llox!

I take it you are just making it up as you go along. Pretcher's record is a joke.

Lousy Track Record for Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International

Actually, Prechter has been making predictions for many years through his investment newsletter, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert has been documenting Prechter’s investment trading predictions and picks since 1985 so he now has a nearly 25 year long track record which can tell us whether you should trade on his predictions or not. Here’s how Prechter’s trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert’s analysis:

Annualized Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent

* Prechter’s Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent

* Prechter’s Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100

* Prechter’s Trading Advice $1,700

My link

That's not including last years "all in, double short" call.

Take his advice with a pitch of salt. Better still make your own mind up.

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GDP 3rd Quarter figures out on Thursday, plus a few other pieces in the week.

We shall see, if you are right, but I'd give it until after the elections or even the end of the 4th Quarter GDP figures.

The way the equity markets are right now, I don't even know how to predict movements based on hypothetical events. For example, say Q3 GDP figures show a decline, I have no idea idea whether this would cause a spike up or down - I expect it would cause a rally, as extreme QE would be even more likely.

However, if the figures are positive, this would also probably cause a rally, as this would CLEARLY point to a strong recovery, giving cause for yet more bullishness.

I am happy to sit out of equity markets, and I am certainly not a trader, but I wish I knew how to sit out of QE-based currency destruction.

Despite wise counsel, I am still sceptical of gold. The Aussie in the Elliott Wave video gives yet another example of why I am sceptical, using the fact that 'gold is physical, whereas paper is not' as some kind of justification of gold's superiority as a currency. Basically every justification for buying gold seems to come with big flaws.

I'm probably wrong, though.

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Pardon me - but B0llox!

I take it you are just making it up as you go along. Pretcher's record is a joke.

Lousy Track Record for Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International

Actually, Prechter has been making predictions for many years through his investment newsletter, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert has been documenting Prechter’s investment trading predictions and picks since 1985 so he now has a nearly 25 year long track record which can tell us whether you should trade on his predictions or not. Here’s how Prechter’s trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert’s analysis:

Annualized Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent

* Prechter’s Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent

* Prechter’s Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100

* Prechter’s Trading Advice $1,700

My link

That's not including last years "all in, double short" call.

Take his advice with a pitch of salt. Better still make your own mind up.

If you check, you'll note that I said the last 3 years. He's called the decline of 2007, the crash of 2008, the reversal of 2009 and the intermittent peaks almost to the day. You can check this, it is correct. I haven't followed him prior to that. The only other guy who has been on par with Prechter during this period is Faber. But even Faber is completely uncertain at this point in time, according to a recent presentation, and is recommending complete diversification and the ability to shift assets rapidly, along with about 10 to 15% physical gold (coin).

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well there must be a memory, but how on earth an Etch a Sketch can predict a complex adaptive system is anybody's guess - here's mine, it can't

To me, technical analysis is just another tool, but the fundamentals and the rapidly changing political environment are also supporting instability. The big big issue is political instability. Greece, Iceland, Ireland, France, Germany, UK hung parliament, Italy, Japan, now the US, I've not seen anything like this in my lifetime. It's going to lead to a lot of trade friction,

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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