Timm Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 (edited) Duplicate post. Edited September 27, 2010 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted September 27, 2010 Author Share Posted September 27, 2010 Sorry it's in an attachment, but if you click below, you can see the main UK house price indicators, arranged by degree of lag or otherwise, and when they might be likely to go negative. Any comments, abuse or corrections are welcome! Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative_IIII.doc Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative_IIII.doc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 You are a pedantic oaf! There - is that enough abuse for you or do you want me to get the wet celery out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted September 27, 2010 Share Posted September 27, 2010 Very interesting well done. Here's what I posted with regards to rightmove the other day: Just a little something in preparation for next months release. Anything less that a 0.2% rise will put the index negative YoY. This index has NEVER shown a negative figure for October, I assume because it's not seasonally adjusted and it's showing the Semptember buying season. So don't get disheartened if it's up. Heres the figures for previous Octobers: 02 2.7% 03 3.3% 04 0.6% 05 0.5% 06 DATA MISSING! (link to 05 report) 07 2.7% 08 1.0% 09 2.8% Even in the weak year of 2008 it still showed a 1% rise. So even a small rise would be bearish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 7, 2010 Author Share Posted October 7, 2010 Updated: (Please note the footnote relating to Halifax, which remains unchanged from the last post). VI Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative.doc Next up - Rightmove... Very interesting well done. Here's what I posted with regards to rightmove the other day: Just a little something in preparation for next months release. Anything less that a 0.2% rise will put the index negative YoY. This index has NEVER shown a negative figure for October, I assume because it's not seasonally adjusted and it's showing the Semptember buying season. So don't get disheartened if it's up. Heres the figures for previous Octobers: 02 2.7% 03 3.3% 04 0.6% 05 0.5% 06 DATA MISSING! (link to 05 report) 07 2.7% 08 1.0% 09 2.8% Even in the weak year of 2008 it still showed a 1% rise. So even a small rise would be bearish. Point taken - we shall see... VI Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative.doc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Up perice-scope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 7, 2010 Author Share Posted October 7, 2010 (edited) Up perice-scope Yes indeed! If there are any friendly mods passing, it would be much appreciated if you could fix the typo. And remove the duplicate post... Pretty please? Edited October 7, 2010 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Yes indeed! If there are any freindly mods passing, it would be much appreciated if you could fix the typo. And remove the duplicate post... Pretty please? On the IPhone version of the forum you can edit thread titles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquid Goldfish Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 When will the headline y-o-y from Halifax go negative? It's still at +2.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 7, 2010 Author Share Posted October 7, 2010 When will the headline y-o-y from Halifax go negative? It's still at +2.6% Not if you compare the index for Sept 2009 to the index for Sept 2010. It's already negative. Of course, if you use Halifax's preferred measure of "last three months compared with the same last three months last year, seasonally adjusted", it's still positive. But why would you use figures in July to see what is happening in September? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 (edited) The real figure is negative now. Prices in September 09 where higher than September 10 but Halifax use some sort of 3 month average compared to the 3 month average at the same time last year so today's HUGE drop hasn't dropped the 3 month average enough to put it negative yet. But should be soon. Edited October 7, 2010 by Pent Up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquid Goldfish Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Not if you compare the index for Sept 2009 to the index for Sept 2010. It's already negative. Of course, if you use Halifax's preferred measure of "last three months compared with the same last three months last year, seasonally adjusted", it's still positive. But why would you use figures in July to see what is happening in September? no rational reason only because it's the one the media reports and that the public will get to hear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquid Goldfish Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 no rational reason only because it's the one the media reports and that the public will get to hear OK, I think it takes a 1.7% fall next month for that figure to go -ve next month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benzlife Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Not if you compare the index for Sept 2009 to the index for Sept 2010. It's already negative. Of course, if you use Halifax's preferred measure of "last three months compared with the same last three months last year, seasonally adjusted", it's still positive. But why would you use figures in July to see what is happening in September? How come your doc shows Halifax standing at +4.4% with a predicted negative of November if it's already negative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 The real figure is negative now. Prices in September 09 where higher than September 10 but Halifax use some sort of 3 month average compared to the 3 month average at the same time last year so today's HUGE drop hasn't dropped the 3 month average enough to put it negative yet. But should be soon. The actual figures are sept 09 £163,294 sept 10 £162,096 According to my calculations we need a 1.7% fall next month to turn yoy negative by the Halifax three monthly annual measure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 OK, I think it takes a 1.7% fall next month for that figure to go -ve next month Didn't see that. Yes I agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 7, 2010 Author Share Posted October 7, 2010 How come your doc shows Halifax standing at +4.4% with a predicted negative of November if it's already negative Perhaps that is because you are looking at the original post on the 27th of September. In todays post (post 5), I update the document with the data released today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing Gnome Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Nice work. A steady stream of YoY negatives to look forward to even with prices flatlining. Any more MoM results approaching todays and the happiness quotient will rise sharply! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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