Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Timm

House Perice Indexes Going Y O Y Negative

Recommended Posts

Sorry it's in an attachment, but if you click below, you can see the main UK house price indicators, arranged by degree of lag or otherwise, and when they might be likely to go negative.

Any comments, abuse or corrections are welcome!

Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative_IIII.doc

Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative_IIII.doc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting well done.

Here's what I posted with regards to rightmove the other day:

Just a little something in preparation for next months release.

Anything less that a 0.2% rise will put the index negative YoY.

This index has NEVER shown a negative figure for October, I assume because it's not seasonally adjusted and it's showing the Semptember buying season. So don't get disheartened if it's up.

Heres the figures for previous Octobers:

02 2.7%

03 3.3%

04 0.6%

05 0.5%

06 DATA MISSING! (link to 05 report)

07 2.7%

08 1.0%

09 2.8%

Even in the weak year of 2008 it still showed a 1% rise. So even a small rise would be bearish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated: (Please note the footnote relating to Halifax, which remains unchanged from the last post).

VI Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative.doc

Next up - Rightmove...

Very interesting well done.

Here's what I posted with regards to rightmove the other day:

Just a little something in preparation for next months release.

Anything less that a 0.2% rise will put the index negative YoY.

This index has NEVER shown a negative figure for October, I assume because it's not seasonally adjusted and it's showing the Semptember buying season. So don't get disheartened if it's up.

Heres the figures for previous Octobers:

02 2.7%

03 3.3%

04 0.6%

05 0.5%

06 DATA MISSING! (link to 05 report)

07 2.7%

08 1.0%

09 2.8%

Even in the weak year of 2008 it still showed a 1% rise. So even a small rise would be bearish.

Point taken - we shall see...

VI Indexes_going_Year_on_Year_negative.doc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up perice-scope

Yes indeed! If there are any friendly mods passing, it would be much appreciated if you could fix the typo.

And remove the duplicate post...

Pretty please?

Edited by Timm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes indeed! If there are any freindly mods passing, it would be much appreciated if you could fix the typo.

And remove the duplicate post...

Pretty please?

On the IPhone version of the forum you can edit thread titles. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When will the headline y-o-y from Halifax go negative?

It's still at +2.6%

Not if you compare the index for Sept 2009 to the index for Sept 2010.

It's already negative.

Of course, if you use Halifax's preferred measure of "last three months compared with the same last three months last year, seasonally adjusted", it's still positive. But why would you use figures in July to see what is happening in September?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The real figure is negative now. Prices in September 09 where higher than September 10 but Halifax use some sort of 3 month average compared to the 3 month average at the same time last year so today's HUGE drop hasn't dropped the 3 month average enough to put it negative yet. But should be soon.

Edited by Pent Up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not if you compare the index for Sept 2009 to the index for Sept 2010.

It's already negative.

Of course, if you use Halifax's preferred measure of "last three months compared with the same last three months last year, seasonally adjusted", it's still positive. But why would you use figures in July to see what is happening in September?

no rational reason

only because it's the one the media reports and that the public will get to hear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

no rational reason

only because it's the one the media reports and that the public will get to hear

OK, I think it takes a 1.7% fall next month for that figure to go -ve next month

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not if you compare the index for Sept 2009 to the index for Sept 2010.

It's already negative.

Of course, if you use Halifax's preferred measure of "last three months compared with the same last three months last year, seasonally adjusted", it's still positive. But why would you use figures in July to see what is happening in September?

How come your doc shows Halifax standing at +4.4% with a predicted negative of November if it's already negative :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The real figure is negative now. Prices in September 09 where higher than September 10 but Halifax use some sort of 3 month average compared to the 3 month average at the same time last year so today's HUGE drop hasn't dropped the 3 month average enough to put it negative yet. But should be soon.

The actual figures are sept 09 £163,294 sept 10 £162,096

According to my calculations we need a 1.7% fall next month to turn yoy negative by the Halifax three monthly annual measure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How come your doc shows Halifax standing at +4.4% with a predicted negative of November if it's already negative :blink:

Perhaps that is because you are looking at the original post on the 27th of September.

In todays post (post 5), I update the document with the data released today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.