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Realistbear

I M F: Austerity Cuts Wil Not Stop Growth

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-backs-austerity-plan-uk-on-the-mend-tele-34c26e08e4ed.html?x=0

IMF backs austerity plan, UK on the mend
Philip "Balders" Aldrick, Economics Editor, 17:24, Monday 27 September 2010
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has thrown its weight behind the Governments austerity drive, describing the strong and credible plan ... essential to ensure debt sustainability.
In an unambiguously supportive statement, the worlds economic regulator said the
Treasurys aggressive programme of cuts would not halt economic growth,
calling it appropriately ambitious.
The IMFs unequivocal endorsement of the Coalitions proposals, which comes the day before Ed Milibands first speech as Labour Party leader, will be seized on by ministers as they hit back at opposition claims that the cuts will damage growth.
In an upbeat assessment of the countrys economic prospects, the IMF declared: The UK economy is on the mend. Recovery is underway but will proceed at a moderate pace as the economy undergoes a difficult but necessary restructuring.
It has revised its growth forecasts from earlier this year,
lifting the 2010 outlook from 1.2pc to 1.7pc
and reducing the 2011 forecast from 2.1pc to 2pc. Fiscal tightening will dampen short-term growth but not stop it as other sectors of the economy emerge as drivers of recovery, the IMF said.

I am not sure how to react to this optimism. Delusional?

If there will be no impact to the cuts there is no need to make the cuts in the first place. The big bust is over and there are no consequences, no pain--nothing.

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As Roghoff and Reinhart have proven from empirical studies, once a nation gets to 90% debt to GDP then growth is reduced.

Debt and deficits reduce growth. Government spending produces a diminishing return. It also stifles the real productive engine of growth, ie the private sector.

Cutting the deficit will be good for UK growth. The unions and Labour haven't a clue about economics.

Edited by ringledman

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/224391c4-ca48-11df-a860-00144feab49a.html

The Fund, however, had little time for such caution and praised the government’s bold strategy to eliminate the deficit within five years. The deficit reduction plan “greatly reduces the risk of a costly loss of confidence in fiscal sustainability and will help rebalance the economy,” the concluding statement of the mission said.

Rebalance in favour of the private sector. Cut corporation taxes - i.e. reallocate capital to the real industrious private sector. This is where real growth comes from not a bloated public sector.

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I am not sure how to react to this optimism. Delusional?

Suggest in the same way I reacted to the news 18 months ago that Portugal's growth would "outstrip the rest of the Eurozone" (source - OECD)

:lol:

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/224391c4-ca48-11df-a860-00144feab49a.html

Rebalance in favour of the private sector. Cut corporation taxes - i.e. reallocate capital to the real industrious private sector. This is where real growth comes from not a bloated public sector.

Yeah those banks really do add so much to the world don't they?

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Britain's banks also got a positive health-check, as the IMF described them as being in relatively good health. However, it suggested that they should build their capital buffers further by slashing dividends to shareholders and bonuses to staff.

So our banks are solid too? Slashing dividends? What dividends?

Cut "staff" bonuses? Don't these fools realise the staff they refer to ARE the bank. That is, the bosses who dip into the till at their own intitiative. The shareholders just have to bend over for them.

Next the IMF will be saying "exports" will help our recovery despite the growing trade imbalance* and the fact that our trading partners are not buying as much because they are just as skint.. :lol::lol::lol:

_________________________

*

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=199

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £4.9 billion in July, compared with a deficit of £3.9 billion in June (originally published as a deficit of £3.3 billion).

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/224391c4-ca48-11df-a860-00144feab49a.html

Rebalance in favour of the private sector. Cut corporation taxes - i.e. reallocate capital to the real industrious private sector. This is where real growth comes from not a bloated public sector.

reduce corporation taxes to zero , why not?

subsidise any manufacturing industry that employs and pays a "decent" wage to the not so academic youths of today, ie why not have tv's made here, i've got

3 plasmas one Japanese the others no idea Phillips, Goodmans...

Subsidies to produce something are better than handouts from the teenage age to the grave..

It will soon be factual that pumping people into public sector jobs was just off balance sheet antics of Govt which didn't see the whole

economic picture AKA brushing the shit under the economic carpet or maxing short termism..

I'll stop I feel a Brown moment approaching ..

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The IMF have a great track record at fixing economies we shouldn't doubt there wisdom....

But they do know the difference between their and there.

You do it in every post you make and i suppose most on here don't really care but i've had a few beers and my fingers are mouthing off.

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They should have stuck to making furniture.

there's a joke there somewhere along the lines of 'did you hear the one about the dyslexic central banker...'

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But they do know the difference between their and there.

You do it in every post you make and i suppose most on here don't really care but i've had a few beers and my fingers are mouthing off.

+1 This kind of ignorance winds me up no end. Only people typing loose instead of lose does my head in more severely.

It's not even difficult to remember:

THEIR refers to ownership, as in the HEIR to a fortune

THERE refers to a place, as does HERE

On topic, doesRealistBear think that maybe we should "do a Balls" and simply carry on spending, and sod the deficit? :blink:

IMF is right in the sense that cuts now is the best course of action. Might still be a double dip but it will be less bad this way.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-backs-austerity-plan-uk-on-the-mend-tele-34c26e08e4ed.html?x=0

IMF backs austerity plan, UK on the mend
Philip "Balders" Aldrick, Economics Editor, 17:24, Monday 27 September 2010
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has thrown its weight behind the Governments austerity drive, describing the strong and credible plan ... essential to ensure debt sustainability.
In an unambiguously supportive statement, the worlds economic regulator said the
Treasurys aggressive programme of cuts would not halt economic growth,
calling it appropriately ambitious.
The IMFs unequivocal endorsement of the Coalitions proposals, which comes the day before Ed Milibands first speech as Labour Party leader, will be seized on by ministers as they hit back at opposition claims that the cuts will damage growth.
In an upbeat assessment of the countrys economic prospects, the IMF declared: The UK economy is on the mend. Recovery is underway but will proceed at a moderate pace as the economy undergoes a difficult but necessary restructuring.
It has revised its growth forecasts from earlier this year,
lifting the 2010 outlook from 1.2pc to 1.7pc
and reducing the 2011 forecast from 2.1pc to 2pc. Fiscal tightening will dampen short-term growth but not stop it as other sectors of the economy emerge as drivers of recovery, the IMF said.

I am not sure how to react to this optimism. Delusional?

If there will be no impact to the cuts there is no need to make the cuts in the first place. The big bust is over and there are no consequences, no pain--nothing.

How about lies?

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But they do know the difference between their and there.

You do it in every post you make and i suppose most on here don't really care but i've had a few beers and my fingers are mouthing off.

Henri Poincaré

Wasn't Poincaré view that correcting grammar and spelling mistakes was a gross misuse of time?

It's more when I'm not concentrating and I'm not concentrating at the minute.

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+1 This kind of ignorance winds me up no end. Only people typing loose instead of lose does my head in more severely.

It's not even difficult to remember:

THEIR refers to ownership, as in the HEIR to a fortune

THERE refers to a place, as does HERE

On topic, doesRealistBear think that maybe we should "do a Balls" and simply carry on spending, and sod the deficit? :blink:

IMF is right in the sense that cuts now is the best course of action. Might still be a double dip but it will be less bad this way.

Thanks for the English lesson I really had no idea what the difference was, but now I do. I've copied the above so I can print it out and now I'll always know the difference. I'll sleep easy tonight.

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The half-wits at the OECD and IMF encouraged the debt bubble didn't they, and they couldn't even SEE that until it burst? These ideological entities belong to the last century, not to this one. Ignore them.

PS. Has any academic ever analysed the accuracy of their forecasts? I suspect they're about as accurate as those infamous BoE Inflation predictions. They serve a purpose though. And that purpose is ideological.

Edited by gruffydd

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The half-wits at the OECD and IMF encouraged the debt bubble didn't they, and they couldn't even SEE that until it burst? These ideological entities belong to the last century, not to this one. Ignore them.

PS. Has any academic ever analysed the accuracy of their forecasts? I suspect they're about as accurate as those infamous BoE Inflation predictions. They serve a purpose though. And that purpose is ideological.

I thought the IMF had a lot of statements waring Gordon Brown about spending?

Those forecasts though as you say aren't worth sh!t.

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The half-wits at the OECD and IMF encouraged the debt bubble didn't they, and they couldn't even SEE that until it burst? These ideological entities belong to the last century, not to this one. Ignore them.

PS. Has any academic ever analysed the accuracy of their forecasts? I suspect they're about as accurate as those infamous BoE Inflation predictions. They serve a purpose though. And that purpose is ideological.

Taleb states in the Black Swan that no one looks into this within academia. I think that's to do with the fact you are going to make some very important people look very stupid and no one will talk to you. If your on your own you won't get any more promotions.

Therefore no one critical assesses what these geniuses say, plus if you want to work for them you won't go criticizing them.

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I thought the IMF had a lot of statements waring Gordon Brown about spending?

Those forecasts though as you say aren't worth sh!t.

The IMF makes lots of statements a lot of which are contradictory, it all depends on who's writing the paper and who's supplied the stats. Some papers are happy clappy cheerleading type reports produced from official govt estimates and seem to support the govt view as they are analyzing the same data.

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/224391c4-ca48-11df-a860-00144feab49a.html

Rebalance in favour of the private sector. Cut corporation taxes - i.e. reallocate capital to the real industrious private sector. This is where real growth comes from not a bloated public sector.

I think you're almost there. We're at a stage now where neoliberal processes of financialisation and globalisation haven proven to be destructive to the wider economy. We do need to restructure away from the public sector but also within the private sector too. Favouring the financial services sector over industry has completely failed us and we need to protect and rebuild our industries. Restructuring away from the public sector just to grow the finance and service sector will just end us up straight back where we are now and that is what is so dangerous about Osbourne's plan - it's missing the crucial ingredients for kick starting growth of productive industry. And that is why it will ultimately fail.

As for the IMF. When have they ever not advocated fiscal policy that's as tight as a gnat's chuff? What else would we expect the IMF to say (when coomenting on an economy in the poo)?

Edited by needsleep

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Any idea of when they have the 'IMF Riot' planned?

I have some savings and I think that spending it (helping the economy like the other nazi banker says)

on a 2 or 3 month holiday while the IMF Riot takes place, might be a good plan.

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Taleb states in the Black Swan that no one looks into this within academia. I think that's to do with the fact you are going to make some very important people look very stupid and no one will talk to you. If your on your own you won't get any more promotions.

Therefore no one critical assesses what these geniuses say, plus if you want to work for them you won't go criticizing them.

I suspected as much - my cynicism is justified! A pretty terrifying world we're living in - the world of academia is simply an arm of corporates in most cases. I recall doing a research paper relating to chemicals in the environment - it went against some big corporate interests and Professor twit took me to one side and warned me off. Disgusting.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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