House Prices Fall Across The Whole Country As Buyers Sit Tight

[moonriver]

They have just discussed this article in The Mail, on Channel Five's Matthew Wright.

The panel completed their discussion with a general agreement that lower house prices are of benefit to first time buyers.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1301740/House-price-fall-fuels-fears-double-dip-recession.htm

House price fall fuels fears of double-dip recession

Fears of a double dip recession rose yesterday after the majority of estate agents reported price falls for the first time in a year.

Demand from buyers is falling just as the number of properties coming onto the market is going up, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

The RICS said a majority of its members reported a fall rather than a rise in prices in July.

Eight per cent more estate agents are reporting a fall in house prices than the combined total of those reporting stable or rising prices.

This is the first time there has been a majority reporting falls since July last year.

Falling house prices tend to hit consumer confidence, which could hasten any moves to a wider double dip recession.

Vince Cable has already admitted that a double-dip recession could be on the cards.

The Business Secretary said: 'The government’s own forecasting risk puts it at something like one in four, one in five.'

He added that his own estimate was 'certainly well below 50-50'.

Only London and the North West are continuing to see price rises, according to RICS. The market is said to be stable in Scotland and the South West, but every other part of Britain is seeing falls.The coalition government’s decision to scrap Home Information Packs has seen a rush of people putting homes on the market to test what prices they might fetch.

Looking ahead, a majority of agents believe prices will fall over the coming months.

RICS spokesman Ian Perry said: ‘This is a reflection of both the increase in supply following the scrapping of HIPS and the more cautious stance from buyers.

Significantly, the forward looking price expectations numbers suggest that this softer trend will continue through the second half of the year.

‘However, agents are still generally optimistic about sales activity which should benefit from more realistic pricing of properties.’

The refusal of banks and building societies to offer home loans is seen as a major obstacle.

Chris Charlton of Savills, Nottingham, said: ‘The lack of liquidity continues to hammer sales at all levels with a lengthy timescale between offer and exchange.’

Robert Bell, an estate agent in Lincolnshire, said: ‘We expect supply of houses for sale will continue to increase, outstripping demand and putting downward pressure on prices.’

Jeremy Dell, of JJ Dell & Company, Oswestry, Shropshire, said: ‘For me the market is the worst it’s ever been. ‘The government’s determination to balance the books has undermined confidence.’

Today’s first-time buyer are having to borrow more money and raise a larger deposit than at any other point over the past 25 years, according to figures from the Nationwide building society.

The average price of a first home is £142,457, which is 4.6 times the average gross salary. Young buyers are having to find an average deposit of £35,614

[Tired of Waiting]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-across-the-whole-country-as-buyers-sit-tight-2090553.html

Some nice charts in Hometrack's press release.

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20100830.cfm

_________________________________________________________________

" 30 August 2010

Re-pricing of housing underway

Falling demand and lower prices more than a seasonal blip

By Richard Donnell, Director of Research, Hometrack

% asking price being achieved

Average weeks on the market:

Edited September 27, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[jonboy2010]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-across-the-whole-country-as-buyers-sit-tight-2090553.html

The decline in the housing market that began in many parts of the country during the summer appears to have spread and accelerated.

New data released today suggest prices are now falling in every part of the country for the first time in 18 months, and that the speed of the drops is gathering pace.

Hometrack, the housing market analyst, said that the average price of a house fell by 0.4 per cent in September, after a 0.3 per cent fall in August and and 0.1 per cent in July. Some 34 per cent of postcodes experienced an average price decrease last month, up from 30 per cent in August and only 12 per cent in July. Price increases were seen in just 2.3 per cent of postcodes.

Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, gave warning that the housing market was likely to deteriorate further. "This is part of an ongoing repricing process which began six months ago and is set to stretch well into 2011," he said. "The markets is entering the second phase of the repricing process as a response to falls in both sales volumes and demand."

Hometrack's data reveal that fewer buyers are now registering with estate agents, with the number of clients down by 6.5 per cent. Demand for housing fell by 2.9 per cent last month alone. Despite falling demand, the supply of new homes for sale continues to rise, with a 7.2 per cent increase in the number of houses put on the market over the past three months. Though that expansion has begun to slow over the past month, continued rising supply while demand falls back will mean further price falls.

Sellers have already been forced to begin to settle for lower offers, with the typical home now going for 93.2 per cent of the asking price, down from 94.3 per cent.

The South-west of England was the worst affected region last month, with price falls averaging 0.6 per cent, though both the South-east and East Anglia were down by 0.5 per cent. The North-east of England, by contrast, was down just 0.1 per cent.

Mr Donnell said, however, that despite the worsening of market conditions, he did not expect to see a full-blown house price crash. "Over the rest of the year and into early 2011, agents will start to focus on repricing the property on their books to a level where transactions volumes are maintained," he said.

"Talk of a double dip, with the implication being that the market will see double-digit house price falls, is over-done despite the weak outlook for demand. We expect a slowdown in the volume of homes coming to the market to limit the scale of absolute price falls over the next 12 months."

Well everyone else is going on strike so why shouldnt us buyers!

[Blod]

The Telegraph are now running with it, the MSM are having a bit of a bearfeast this morn it seems.

[Pent Up]

The Telegraph are now running with it, the MSM are having a bit of a bearfeast this morn it seems.

Let's hope it turns into a week long bear festival. Could be a big week for us.

Monday: hometrack

Tuesday: land registry HPI

Wednesday: BOE mortgage approvals

Thursday: nationwide HPI

Friday: reflect on the weeks developments.

[The Masked Tulip]

Let's hope it turns into a week long bear festival. Could be a big week for us.

Monday: hometrack

Tuesday: land registry HPI

Wednesday: BOE mortgage approvals

Thursday: nationwide HPI

Friday: reflect on the weeks developments.

It would not surprise me if the land reg was up - any figures release this month are probably completion prices back around April/May when there was that mini-bubble.

Whilst actual sales might be down the headline that the media wil lrun with will probably be that prices are up from what little was, presumably, sold.

[CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM]

Well here's hoping for some forced reality.

Does anyone know how to access more specific regional or even town detailed breakdowns from Hometrack ???.

Edited September 27, 2010 by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM

[porca misèria]

Let's hope it turns into a week long bear festival.

Beer festival in Munich ... Bear festival on HPC. Cheers!

[headrow]

Let's hope it turns into a week long bear festival. Could be a big week for us.

Monday: hometrack

Tuesday: land registry HPI

Wednesday: BOE mortgage approvals

Thursday: nationwide HPI

Friday: reflect on the weeks developments.

GDP figures due tuesday too. A bad figure there , which i doubt it will be ,coupled with poor housing data and the double dip will be all over the newspapers weds morning

[xux42]

At 08:41? I heard that quite a lot earlier on Today. The Hometrack interviewee was trying to say this is a gentle fall, and the BBC interviewer tried to suggest that a fall would be a good thing.

I heard him talking about lower prices, then say we might 'ease to 2 or 3% YOY'. Huh?

Have these people been genetically modified so that they can't say 'drop' or 'fall'.

If we see irrefutable evidence of sustained falls will they just hide until the market has bottomed and they can start talking the market up again?

Bears don't go around denying increases - we discuss and analyse.

These VI bulls are utterly pathetic. They've been denying the reality on the ground so long I'm losing hope that they will stick around for all the well deserved "told you so's" when the carnage finally comes.

Well we'll just have to seek then out!

[Tired of Waiting]

Well here's hoping for some forced reality.

Does anyone know how to access more specific regional or even town detailed breakdowns from Hometrack ???.

Zoopla has some regional data. (As usual bad news for Chichester I'm afraid : http://www.zoopla.co.uk/market/chichester )

.

Edited September 27, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[Pent Up]

Zoopla has some regional data. (As usual bad news for Chichester I'm afraid : http://www.zoopla.co.uk/market/chichester )

.

Don't forget this is land registry data so is subject to the usual lag of at least 3 months.

[Tired of Waiting]

Don't forget this is land registry data so is subject to the usual lag of at least 3 months.

Good news. Thanks. (I did forget )

[CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM]

Thanks both

[Si1]

The market is suffering due to sales in both volume and demand. Despite the fall in the market, Mr Donnell said that fears of a double-dip recession are "overdone".

"Talk of a double-dip, with the implication being that the market will see double digit house price falls, is overdone despite the weak outlook for demand. We expect a slowdown in the volume of homes coming on the market to limit the scale of absolute price falls over the next 12 months," he said.

there's that bargaining stage again

'ok so they'll fall - but not more than 9% a year, it'll all be okay, deep breaths...'