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According to Forex Factory, Nationwide are releasing their month on month figures Thursday, and Halifax on Friday.

They predict the following:

Nationwide -0.2% (previously -0.6)

Halifax 0.6% (previously 0.2%)

Surely Halifax isn't going to report 0.6% is it ?!

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Halifax won't we released Friday, it will probably be Thursday next week.

I think nationwide will show a similar fall to last time around -0.9% again and Halifax will resume it's downward trend -0.7%

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I'll be really shocked if either of them can fudge the figures to a positive this time.

Halifax - 0.9%

Nationwide - 0.4%

Weren't we at this stage 18 months or so ago? I remember when one of these two first started reporting rises at the beginning of the bear trap / dead cat bounce. We scoffed at their figures then, but turned out (annoyingly) that they were right... I believe we'll only be locked in for a fall once the YoY turns negative.

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I'll be really shocked if either of them can fudge the figures to a positive this time.

Me too, lets hope for some whole number drops this month, these piddly 0.x figures are starting to bore me to tears...

My guestimate: Nationwide -1.2%, Halifax -0.4%.

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Weren't we at this stage 18 months or so ago? I remember when one of these two first started reporting rises at the beginning of the bear trap / dead cat bounce. We scoffed at their figures then, but turned out (annoyingly) that they were right... I believe we'll only be locked in for a fall once the YoY turns negative.

Nationwide would need a 2.8% fall to become YOY negative so probably October. I actually said that would see YOY negative around October around April time.

Two 1.3% falls over the next two months will do it nicely.

I think when they do start going negative we will get a wave of bearish news as there will no longer a 'but prices are up YOY' even though the YOY figures an be very misleading.

Edited by Pent Up

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...blah blah blah....skewed by low sales volumes.....blah blah....world cup...blah blah.....banks not lending....seasonal blip.....

Don't forget Ramadan !

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With Rightmove being significantly negative for the last three months, this has to feed through to selling prices eventually. But as it takes approximately 100 days to sell on average, there will be quite a lag.

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According to Forex Factory, Nationwide are releasing their month on month figures Thursday, and Halifax on Friday.

They predict the following:

Nationwide -0.2% (previously -0.6)

Halifax 0.6% (previously 0.2%)

Surely Halifax isn't going to report 0.6% is it ?!

+/- 1% is beyond the accuracy of the tools used to measure, hence a pointless trend in any direction.

A bigger concern is that of what is happining to your savings with RPI at 5%

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With Rightmove being significantly negative for the last three months, this has to feed through to selling prices eventually. But as it takes approximately 100 days to sell on average, there will be quite a lag.

Theres a big difference between rightmove and other indicies as rightmove don't seasonally adjust. I've been expected a seasonal small rise from rightmove maybe that was shown with less of a fall for September.

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+/- 1% is beyond the accuracy of the tools used to measure, hence a pointless trend in any direction.

A bigger concern is that of what is happining to your savings with RPI at 5%

With HPI negative my 3% ISA is a big real increase since my savings are purely for a house purchase.

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+/- 1% is beyond the accuracy of the tools used to measure, hence a pointless trend in any direction.

A bigger concern is that of what is happining to your savings with RPI at 5%

Savings: RPI 5%, interest on savings 4% = Lose 1% of net worth per year.

House: -30% to -40% (my prediction) over next few years = Lose 10% of net worth per year.

I know which I prefer ;).

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Savings: RPI 5%, interest on savings 4% = Lose 1% of net worth per year.

House: -30% to -40% (my prediction) over next few years = Lose 10% of net worth per year.

I know which I prefer ;).

Don't forget the leveraging. If you have less than a 30 - 40% deposit then it's -100% of net worth.

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Judging by my local area (sw london) I can see halifax figures up! It goes against what we are reading, but since the last bout of bad news about housing, the asking prices seem to have gone up by around 10k. That's just from my observation but it wouldn't surprise me. I'd be unhappy though if the halifax figures (if positive) make headline news.

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Judging by my local area (sw london) I can see halifax figures up! It goes against what we are reading, but since the last bout of bad news about housing, the asking prices seem to have gone up by around 10k. That's just from my observation but it wouldn't surprise me. I'd be unhappy though if the halifax figures (if positive) make headline news.

According to rightmove London asking prices are down 7% over the lady 3 months.

Also asking prices are not selling prices. They can ask what they want but won't sell at that price.

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Savings: RPI 5%, interest on savings 4% = Lose 1% of net worth per year.

House: -30% to -40% (my prediction) over next few years = Lose 10% of net worth per year.

I know which I prefer ;).

Im not convinced prices of houses are as you say or think.

A point in fact is my mother just sold her house in N yorkshire to go into a care home, it was sold in 48 hours for the asking price £250k we had 3 other requests in the first week to top the asking price...that is GAZUMP!!!

Before you say theplace was undervalued I can tell you its a standard 3 bed bungalow built 30 year ago my late father purchased it in 2000 fo 99k!

So i dont accept things are as you say.

Inflation will change the game property will be in demand to offload cash savings.

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Nationwide 0.5% (previously -0.6)

Halifax 1.0% (previously 0.2%)

All those agents have got plenty of time to force prices of any transactions as high as they can, see the various threads on this site regarding how hard the market is being forced higher.

It’s immaterial to view these figures as they don’t represent the public’s sentiments to housing costs. The is a growing realism that housing is too costly.

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Im not convinced prices of houses are as you say or think.

A point in fact is my mother just sold her house in N yorkshire to go into a care home, it was sold in 48 hours for the asking price £250k we had 3 other requests in the first week to top the asking price...that is GAZUMP!!!

Before you say theplace was undervalued I can tell you its a standard 3 bed bungalow built 30 year ago my late father purchased it in 2000 fo 99k!

So i dont accept things are as you say.

Inflation will change the game property will be in demand to offload cash savings.

I didn't say now, I said over the next few years :rolleyes:.

Inflation may become a major problem, but it's not now and it's far easier to buy a house in a hurry than sell one.

In these difficult times, I'm far happier with liquid cash (in two currencies) than holding a depreciating, illiquid, asset.

Edit: You seem to be on a mission :rolleyes:http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148909&view=findpost&p=2663778

Edited by Bruce Banner

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Im not convinced prices of houses are as you say or think.

A point in fact is my mother just sold her house in N yorkshire to go into a care home, it was sold in 48 hours for the asking price £250k we had 3 other requests in the first week to top the asking price...that is GAZUMP!!!

Before you say theplace was undervalued I can tell you its a standard 3 bed bungalow built 30 year ago my late father purchased it in 2000 fo 99k!

So i dont accept things are as you say.

Inflation will change the game property will be in demand to offload cash savings.

I've been watching several houses in my local area drop like stones over the last few months. A couple have knocked 30% off asking and are undercutting everything else locally but still haven't sold. These are in a nice area or Essex too.

Also seen a house sell whitin a week last month whereas a house on the same road at same price has been sitting for several months. Simple fact is it's a buyers Market and the vast majority of having difficulty selling without significant reductions.

Just look at the house buying and selling forum in MSE there is nearly always a thread on the front page about someone asking why they are getting no interest. There was three separate threads on that page at one yesterday.

Just face it. We are right.

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I've been watching several houses in my local area drop like stones over the last few months. A couple have knocked 30% off asking and are undercutting everything else locally but still haven't sold. These are in a nice area or Essex too.

Also seen a house sell whitin a week last month whereas a house on the same road at same price has been sitting for several months. Simple fact is it's a buyers Market and the vast majority of having difficulty selling without significant reductions.

Just look at the house buying and selling forum in MSE there is nearly always a thread on the front page about someone asking why they are getting no interest. There was three separate threads on that page at one yesterday.

Just face it. We are right.

You may be right prices may drop 20-30% over 10 years, or may not.

The fact is this with rpi at 5% and heading higher with no base rate increase and qe2,3,4 on the way good property in nice area like n yorks will not suffer, as I have factually demonstrated.

If your dream is to buy a card box in an inner city slum down south then you might have a point.

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You may be right prices may drop 20-30% over 10 years, or may not.

The fact is this with rpi at 5% and heading higher with no base rate increase and qe2,3,4 on the way good property in nice area like n yorks will not suffer, as I have factually demonstrated.If your dream is to buy a card box in an inner city slum down south then you might have a point.

these arent facts, they are speculation, the same as bruce is speculating 30% falls over the next few years, no doubt somebody will be right and somebody wrong but you need to stop confusing facts (today) with forecasts (tomorrow) which often have no bearing on one another

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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