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Contrary to popular belief amongst the ubers on here - Stocks may well have made their secular bottom in March 2009.

The next 5 years is a base building for the next secular uptrend.

Commodities and stocks the only place to be.

The market could easily spend the next 5 years rising to 6700 and still remain in a 'technical bear market'.

Secular bear markets don't end on the last day of the 17-20 year cycle at their lowest point and then suddenly rise for the next bull market. The low of the bear market could easily have been made, with a period of consolidation before the next boom occurs.

Bears - Calling a 50% crash from here simply ignores history. with the fundamentals of loose monetary policy and negative interest rates, the low of March 2009 will not be repeated.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22977.html

The Next Great Bull Market Begins on This Date...

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010

Sep 24, 2010 - 04:31 PM

By: DailyWealth

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "We face another seven years or so of bad times," Robert Shiller said this week.

Through luck or skill, he's been pretty darn right about these things..

He perfectly timed his prediction of the dot-com bust in his 2000 book Irrational Exuberance. His book on the severe risks in the housing market came out in 2008.

Here in 2010, he says, "We face another seven years of bad times." Seven years would put us in 2017. Shiller's rough guess of seven years fits in with a big-picture idea I have. I call it the Generational Switch...

The key to making a fortune in stocks (and avoiding getting obliterated) is having a basic idea of when stocks might have a long stretch of gains... and when they might do nothing.

This isn't easy to do. But when you look at it over history, a simple pattern does emerge...

Each generation, the pattern switches.

One generation gets obliterated by the stock market, knocking everyone out of stocks. Then the next generation lives through a soaring stock market.

It's not clockwork... but it seems there's more at work than just chance. Take a look:

If you had lived through the Great Depression – if you had lived through an entire generation where stocks lost money (17 years from 1930-1947) – would you ever consider buying stocks again?

Probably not. Yet that's when you should have bought... Stocks rose by more than 500% in the next generation, from 1947 to 1965.

Folks who invested heavily throughout the 1970s learned you could "never" make money in stocks. You needed real assets, like real estate and gold. Boy, were they wrong in the 1980s and 1990s. Gold fell in half from its 1980 peak to 1999.

If the last investment generation ended around 1999, and if the pattern holds, then we could see stocks do poorly for something like 17 years... or until roughly 2016. That's pretty close to what Shiller is saying.

The popular wisdom in 1999 was that you always want to be invested in stocks. Nobody wanted gold. But since the end of 1999, stocks (as measured by the S&P 500 index) are down, as I'm sure you're well aware. Meanwhile, commodities (as measured by the CRB Index) are up over 100%.

The last generation of stock investors is still holding some love for stocks. And they're still a bit afraid to commit to commodities like gold. But they will. History suggests they'll have given up on stocks and be fully loaded in commodities... by 2016.

Looking at the last time we were in a similar cycle, I have two important points to share with you...

1) The March 2009 bottom may be the ultimate bottom in stocks, not 2016. In the last great bear market ('65-'81), the ultimate bottom was in 1974, not '81. Investors spent the next few years giving up on stocks and looking to "the action" in commodities.

2) Commodity prices could go "parabolic" in the coming years. They did in the late 1970s, at the very end of their bull market. It's what happens at the end of great bull markets. It's just like stocks in the late 1990s – they "went parabolic" at the end of their bull market.

So there is some good news...

Commodities could go parabolic from here. And stocks may have already bottomed. So even though it could be years (until roughly 2016) before another rip-roaring bull market in stocks arrives, we may have seen the lows for this generation.

Or none of this could be true, of course... But it has worked roughly this way for the last 100 years.

Good investing,

Steve

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2010 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Edited by ringledman

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We really need to save these posts and wheel them out a year or so from now, if moderators could just fix the search function. I was trying to find the article a while ago by a Zero Hedge author that has so far been totally wrong.

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Contrary to popular belief amongst the ubers on here - Stocks may well have made their secular bottom in March 2009.

This fits the bear case. It is entirely as a result of money printing and market manipulation. Nothing else. The Zimbabwe stock market went through an amazing bull run. As did the markets in the Weimar Republic.

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The problem for the uber-joe public bears is that they like to buy high and sell low. Always unwilling to accept the emperical asset class cycles.

Much rather buy into a 29 year bond bubble and believe we are going to have another 20 year (japan style) run in bonds, despite this equating to twice as long as bond cycles from the past.

Likewise have no concept that the stock market crashed a decade ago and is 2/3 of the way through the SECULAR bear. It is still a bubble in their eyes. Stock market grind sideways during secular bear markets.

The risk is in bonds that have gone up since 1981. This is near the end or possible over the end of the typical bond cycle duration.

Edited by ringledman

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This fits the bear case. It is entirely as a result of money printing and market manipulation. Nothing else. The Zimbabwe stock market went through an amazing bull run. As did the markets in the Weimar Republic.

Exactly. Since 2000 the ftse and dow have lost investors money in real terms. This is especially so if you measure the dollar/sterling worth of these indexes in terms of how much gold they could buy you during the period. If looked at from that perspective, they've crashed spectacularly.

Edited by General Congreve

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Exactly. Since 2000 the ftse and dow have lost investors money in real terms. This is especially so if you measure the dollar/sterling worth of these indexes in terms of how much gold they could buy you during the period. If looked at from that perspective, they've crashed spectacularly.

2000 was a short term top - very selective date

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Anybody follow Nadeem Walayatt at market oracle? I've been following him for over 3 years and I must say the guy is very rarely wrong. I hate him for that as he has proved my personal predictions of where certain markets are heading to be wrong over and over again. He has an uncanny knack of prredicting inflation, interest rates, gdp figures etc to within single digits and always posts his previous predictions for review. when I first started to read him I dismissed what he said, like a new stocks bull run in march of 09 as he was saying mostly the opposite of most other analysts. Now when he says something I listen up. He has been the most consistently right analyst I follow and I follow alot. Dismiss his predictions at your own peril

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  • 138 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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