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richcrashman

Average Prices Being Supported By Greater Proportion Of Larger Property Selling.

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I've often thought that average prices were being supported by a greater proportion of larger properties selling and thus shifting the average up.

Just looking at the figures for Staffordshire on Home.co.uk and found some interesting figures.

June 07 - June 10

All types of properties (detached, semi, etc) are down or at best 0, however the average is 1% up.

Detached £247,743 £230,298 -7%

Semi £139,751 £132,921 -5%

Terraced £110,415 £109,977 -0%

Flat £112,118 £104,935 -6%

All £156,106 £157,297 +1%

Looking at the numbers of each type selling we get

Detached 573 339 -41%

Semi 795 358 -55%

Terraced 674 260 -61%

Flat 198 71 -64%

Notice the how the numbers of detached sold haven't suffered as much peak mania.

Moving the dates to June 08 - June 10 it gets even more interesting

Detached £249,496 £230,298 -8%

Semi £145,364 £132,921 -9%

Terraced £112,473 £109,977 -2%

Flat £109,548 £104,935 -4%

All £156,822 £157,297 +0%

And the numbers of each type sold

Detached 271 339 +25%

Semi 399 358 -10%

Terraced 363 260 -28%

Flat 94 71 -24%

Working out the percentage of detached sold in June we get

June 07 = 25.5%

June 08 = 24%

June 09 = 28.5%

June 10 = 33%

So detached sales have gone from a quarter of the market to a third. Must be pushing up the average. How does it look in other areas?

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I don't know the figures in Milton Keynes but an estate agent told me yesterday that only houses at the lower end of the scale are selling.

He said anything above £180k is just sitting there.

Not that I think estate agents know what they are talking about though, by a long shot.

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I've often thought that average prices were being supported by a greater proportion of larger properties selling and thus shifting the average up.

Just looking at the figures for Staffordshire on Home.co.uk and found some interesting figures.

June 07 - June 10

All types of properties (detached, semi, etc) are down or at best 0, however the average is 1% up.

Detached £247,743 £230,298 -7%

Semi £139,751 £132,921 -5%

Terraced £110,415 £109,977 -0%

Flat £112,118 £104,935 -6%

All £156,106 £157,297 +1%

Looking at the numbers of each type selling we get

Detached 573 339 -41%

Semi 795 358 -55%

Terraced 674 260 -61%

Flat 198 71 -64%

Notice the how the numbers of detached sold haven't suffered as much peak mania.

Moving the dates to June 08 - June 10 it gets even more interesting

Detached £249,496 £230,298 -8%

Semi £145,364 £132,921 -9%

Terraced £112,473 £109,977 -2%

Flat £109,548 £104,935 -4%

All £156,822 £157,297 +0%

And the numbers of each type sold

Detached 271 339 +25%

Semi 399 358 -10%

Terraced 363 260 -28%

Flat 94 71 -24%

Working out the percentage of detached sold in June we get

June 07 = 25.5%

June 08 = 24%

June 09 = 28.5%

June 10 = 33%

So detached sales have gone from a quarter of the market to a third. Must be pushing up the average. How does it look in other areas?

You can clearly see this on the land registry reports. The indicies are suppose to be adjusted for this sort of thing.

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I've often thought that average prices were being supported by a greater proportion of larger properties selling and thus shifting the average up.

Just looking at the figures for Staffordshire on Home.co.uk and found some interesting figures.

June 07 - June 10

All types of properties (detached, semi, etc) are down or at best 0, however the average is 1% up.

Detached £247,743 £230,298 -7%

Semi £139,751 £132,921 -5%

Terraced £110,415 £109,977 -0%

Flat £112,118 £104,935 -6%

All £156,106 £157,297 +1%

Looking at the numbers of each type selling we get

Detached 573 339 -41%

Semi 795 358 -55%

Terraced 674 260 -61%

Flat 198 71 -64%

Notice the how the numbers of detached sold haven't suffered as much peak mania.

Moving the dates to June 08 - June 10 it gets even more interesting

Detached £249,496 £230,298 -8%

Semi £145,364 £132,921 -9%

Terraced £112,473 £109,977 -2%

Flat £109,548 £104,935 -4%

All £156,822 £157,297 +0%

And the numbers of each type sold

Detached 271 339 +25%

Semi 399 358 -10%

Terraced 363 260 -28%

Flat 94 71 -24%

Working out the percentage of detached sold in June we get

June 07 = 25.5%

June 08 = 24%

June 09 = 28.5%

June 10 = 33%

So detached sales have gone from a quarter of the market to a third. Must be pushing up the average. How does it look in other areas?

I thought that they used stratified random sampling to adjust for that. I know that one survey does, but I can't remember which one it was that I read about. They should all use stratified sampling to allow for the type of houses being sold.

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I've long suspected that this could be a significant factor in why the crash recovered last year.

People in good homes still need to trade them to move area. (Ha and bankers bonuses are still pretty decent). It's just that FTB end of the market is almost stalled due to banks asking for large deposits.

Your analysis does seem to stand up, prices are actually not as recovered as the indices would suggest. Averages appear up as the higher priced houses are still trading (their owners can still get funding as they have good equity )

Good post.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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