"truly A One In 100-Year Implosion"

[PJ1977]

Good piece from BBC NI on the local banks :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11401854

[talksalot81]

Yet sellers will continue to believe that people can borrow large amounts in order to afford their concept of 'market value'.

[Ride_on]

Eventually the spotlight fell on the main cause of many of the banks' problems - the bursting of a property bubble which they, in large part, helped inflate.

The biggest understatement in that article. They are blaming something they directly and completely caused, although to be fair I blame the regulators and Gov't more for not stopping them.

[Malthus]

"They are not meeting interest payments, they are certainly not making any capital repayments, and we are rolling up interest or we are foregoing interest to give these customers a chance.

"The banks are giving these guys every chance."

The previous generations of bank management must spend their days swearing at the TV or rolling in their graves

If you can't pay the interest or capital on a loan you are insolvent end of :angry:

[PJ1977]

The previous generations of bank management must spend their days swearing at the TV or rolling in their graves

If you can't pay the interest or capital on a loan you are insolvent end of :angry:

The trouble for the banks is that technically the vast majority of their commercial property customers must be insolvent on that strict definition but if they were to take action against all of them it would just be an appalling vista - they would smash the entire construction/ property industry to dust in a matter of days.

The bankers said as much during the session - Elvin is trying to keep some going in the hope they can recover some value. Kilty too seems to be hoping for some sort of recovery saying they will only call in the receivers as a last resort as the last thing AIB want is a load of crud directly on their books and the expense of paying the insolvency guy to mop up the mess.

Meanwhile the total no-hopers are being steadily picked off: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11401863

[BelfastVI]

The trouble for the banks is that technically the vast majority of their commercial property customers must be insolvent on that strict definition but if they were to take action against all of them it would just be an appalling vista - they would smash the entire construction/ property industry to dust in a matter of days.

The bankers said as much during the session - Elvin is trying to keep some going in the hope they can recover some value. Kilty too seems to be hoping for some sort of recovery saying they will only call in the receivers as a last resort as the last thing AIB want is a load of crud directly on their books and the expense of paying the insolvency guy to mop up the mess.

Meanwhile the total no-hopers are being steadily picked off: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11401863

Very True

[azogar]

any banker surprised by this 'implosion' needs to go back to school - it was very predictable in the last few years of the boom

a simple chart using the nationwide quarterly data showed that the prices were 'spiking' (or moving into a rapid spike) esp. in comparison to the UK (ex NI) data

i mean c'mon it's not rocket science, esp. wrt to house prices which are far less liquid than commodities

[azogar]

implosion predictions for the 2008 year alone!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=65010

[azogar]

1 in 100 years though

hmm....

hi all

i am the idiot who just voted for the 40% + drop

hope i am wrong but this credit crunch just seems like a 1930s scenario to me

then prices in these parts fell 60% in 18 months!

time will tell all

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=65010&view=findpost&p=914245

[PJ1977]

any banker surprised by this 'implosion' needs to go back to school - it was very predictable in the last few years of the boom

a simple chart using the nationwide quarterly data showed that the prices were 'spiking' (or moving into a rapid spike) esp. in comparison to the UK (ex NI) data

i mean c'mon it's not rocket science, esp. wrt to house prices which are far less liquid than commodities

By this stage we should all be aware there was an intense herd mentality among the bankers which made them close their eyes to the data, even in some cases when their own economists were quietly spelling it out.

This shouldn't be terribly surprising: in my experience most bankers are (despite their recent self styled image as gods of capitalism)basically unimaginative, conformist dullards who live in terror of the quarterly report. Who among them was going to be the first to turn off the credit tap as their rivals kept spraying it around?

[Bill Poster]

By this stage we should all be aware there was an intense herd mentality among the bankers which made them close their eyes to the data, even in some cases when their own economists were quietly spelling it out.

This shouldn't be terribly surprising: in my experience most bankers are (despite their recent self styled image as gods of capitalism)basically unimaginative, conformist dullards who live in terror of the quarterly report. Who among them was going to be the first to turn off the credit tap as their rivals kept spraying it around?

Strong words but +1 from me.