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harumph

Bba Data 3.37% Mom Drop

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The approvals are appalling, the data is all south, which is just what we like to hear around here.

It's interesting that the actual approval value has fallen from £148500 (july 2010) to £143500 (aug 2010) so that is a house price DROP of 3.37% in a MONTH

has anyone got the full historical data set from the BBA? I can't find it on their site...

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Average value

of loan for

House

Month Purchase

nsa

£

Sep 1997 58,300

Oct 1997 59,500

Nov 1997 60,100

Dec 1997 61,000

Jan 1998 59,400

Feb 1998 61,800

Mar 1998 61,500

Apr 1998 62,300

May 1998 63,100

Jun 1998 63,100

Jul 1998 63,200

Aug 1998 63,100

Sep 1998 61,800

Oct 1998 61,800

Nov 1998 63,400

Dec 1998 65,800

Jan 1999 66,900

Feb 1999 65,200

Mar 1999 67,000

Apr 1999 67,000

May 1999 69,800

Jun 1999 72,500

Jul 1999 71,800

Aug 1999 70,600

Sep 1999 71,000

Oct 1999 69,800

Nov 1999 72,400

Dec 1999 70,800

Jan 2000 66,100

Feb 2000 67,300

Mar 2000 69,400

Apr 2000 68,100

May 2000 68,200

Jun 2000 67,500

Jul 2000 66,400

Aug 2000 66,800

Sep 2000 67,100

Oct 2000 68,300

Nov 2000 70,900

Dec 2000 73,500

Jan 2001 71,300

Feb 2001 74,400

Mar 2001 76,300

Apr 2001 75,800

May 2001 76,100

Jun 2001 78,100

Jul 2001 77,900

Aug 2001 76,500

Sep 2001 76,000

Oct 2001 75,600

Nov 2001 79,200

Dec 2001 80,400

Jan 2002 79,900

Feb 2002 82,400

Mar 2002 84,800

Apr 2002 86,200

May 2002 89,000

Jun 2002 90,900

Jul 2002 89,300

Aug 2002 88,000

Sep 2002 86,900

Oct 2002 89,500

Nov 2002 91,200

Dec 2002 90,300

Jan 2003 86,900

Feb 2003 84,300

Mar 2003 85,600

Apr 2003 88,600

May 2003 92,100

Jun 2003 100,000

Jul 2003 102,200

Aug 2003 105,300

Sep 2003 105,700

Oct 2003 109,000

Nov 2003 106,800

Dec 2003 107,300

Jan 2004 100,800

Feb 2004 104,900

Mar 2004 109,200

Apr 2004 110,800

May 2004 113,900

Jun 2004 116,500

Jul 2004 114,200

Aug 2004 112,100

Sep 2004 111,300

Oct 2004 113,100

Nov 2004 120,100

Dec 2004 118,300

Jan 2005 113,900

Feb 2005 123,300

Mar 2005 127,200

Apr 2005 129,200

May 2005 125,400

Jun 2005 131,600

Jul 2005 132,700

Aug 2005 130,500

Sep 2005 130,500

Oct 2005 129,500

Nov 2005 130,800

Dec 2005 134,400

Jan 2006 126,800

Feb 2006 132,300

Mar 2006 134,300

Apr 2006 140,400

May 2006 139,300

Jun 2006 137,700

Jul 2006 139,200

Aug 2006 141,500

Sep 2006 140,400

Oct 2006 144,600

Nov 2006 147,100

Dec 2006 146,400

Jan 2007 146,700

Feb 2007 150,400

Mar 2007 150,800

Apr 2007 152,800

May 2007 157,100

Jun 2007 159,600

Jul 2007 156,900

Aug 2007 153,800

Sep 2007 152,300

Oct 2007 153,500

Nov 2007 153,000

Dec 2007 155,900

Jan 2008 154,600

Feb 2008 158,100

Mar 2008 158,000

Apr 2008 155,100

May 2008 155,100

Jun 2008 152,800

Jul 2008 138,300

Aug 2008 130,400

Sep 2008 128,300

Oct 2008 128,400

Nov 2008 116,700

Dec 2008 116,100

Jan 2009 121,700

Feb 2009 126,300

Mar 2009 130,600

Apr 2009 131,300

May 2009 136,200

Jun 2009 138,400

Jul 2009 142,000

Aug 2009 138,200

Sep 2009 137,300

Oct 2009 142,000

Nov 2009 142,200

Dec 2009 141,100

Jan 2010 139,000

Feb 2010 142,300

Mar 2010 146,100

Apr 2010 146,700

May 2010 150,500

Jun 2010 150,600

Jul 2010 148,500

Aug 2010 143,500

http://www.bba.org.uk/statistics/article/august-figures-for-the-main-high-street-banks2

Click on Historical Time Seriers - August 2010 at the bottom of the page - more info but i couldnt make it fit.

Look at the drop Oct - Nov 2008! (edit to add - and June - July 08!)

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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The approvals are appalling, the data is all south, which is just what we like to hear around here.

It's interesting that the actual approval value has fallen from £148500 (july 2010) to £143500 (aug 2010) so that is a house price DROP of 3.37% in a MONTH

has anyone got the full historical data set from the BBA? I can't find it on their site...

That could just mean deposits are getting bigger.

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It's interesting that the actual approval value has fallen from £148500 (july 2010) to £143500 (aug 2010) so that is a house price DROP of 3.37% in a MONTH

Are those figures the average loan amount per mortgage borrower?

I.e. they don't reflect the total amount of money being lent in new loans - and hence the historical time series doesn't pick on the major credit contraction post 2007?

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Are those figures the average loan amount per mortgage borrower?

I.e. they don't reflect the total amount of money being lent in new loans - and hence the historical time series doesn't pick on the major credit contraction post 2007?

The series does seem to pick out the peaks and troughs of sentiment in real time though.

All-time peak in June 2007, peak buying season of the peakiest peak in all of peakdom.

Trough of HPC1 in Dec 2008, the low point of sentiment.

The peak of 'return to normal' sentiment in June 2010, before the nasty party called an end to it all.

Now crashing back to last summer's level, as 'fear' phase stalks again!

HPC2 all the way to capitulation!

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thanks for that data... for those that are interested here's the data with the corresponding monthly drop/rise (as a %)

Sep 1997 58,300 0

Oct 1997 59,500 2.06

Nov 1997 60,100 1.01

Dec 1997 61,000 1.50

Jan 1998 59,400 -2.62

Feb 1998 61,800 4.04

Mar 1998 61,500 -0.49

Apr 1998 62,300 1.30

May 1998 63,100 1.28

Jun 1998 63,100 0.00

Jul 1998 63,200 0.16

Aug 1998 63,100 -0.16

Sep 1998 61,800 -2.06

Oct 1998 61,800 0.00

Nov 1998 63,400 2.59

Dec 1998 65,800 3.79

Jan 1999 66,900 1.67

Feb 1999 65,200 -2.54

Mar 1999 67,000 2.76

Apr 1999 67,000 0.00

May 1999 69,800 4.18

Jun 1999 72,500 3.87

Jul 1999 71,800 -0.97

Aug 1999 70,600 -1.67

Sep 1999 71,000 0.57

Oct 1999 69,800 -1.69

Nov 1999 72,400 3.72

Dec 1999 70,800 -2.21

Jan 2000 66,100 -6.64

Feb 2000 67,300 1.82

Mar 2000 69,400 3.12

Apr 2000 68,100 -1.87

May 2000 68,200 0.15

Jun 2000 67,500 -1.03

Jul 2000 66,400 -1.63

Aug 2000 66,800 0.60

Sep 2000 67,100 0.45

Oct 2000 68,300 1.79

Nov 2000 70,900 3.81

Dec 2000 73,500 3.67

Jan 2001 71,300 -2.99

Feb 2001 74,400 4.35

Mar 2001 76,300 2.55

Apr 2001 75,800 -0.66

May 2001 76,100 0.40

Jun 2001 78,100 2.63

Jul 2001 77,900 -0.26

Aug 2001 76,500 -1.80

Sep 2001 76,000 -0.65

Oct 2001 75,600 -0.53

Nov 2001 79,200 4.76

Dec 2001 80,400 1.52

Jan 2002 79,900 -0.62

Feb 2002 82,400 3.13

Mar 2002 84,800 2.91

Apr 2002 86,200 1.65

May 2002 89,000 3.25

Jun 2002 90,900 2.13

Jul 2002 89,300 -1.76

Aug 2002 88,000 -1.46

Sep 2002 86,900 -1.25

Oct 2002 89,500 2.99

Nov 2002 91,200 1.90

Dec 2002 90,300 -0.99

Jan 2003 86,900 -3.77

Feb 2003 84,300 -2.99

Mar 2003 85,600 1.54

Apr 2003 88,600 3.50

May 2003 92,100 3.95

Jun 2003 100,000 8.58

Jul 2003 102,200 2.20

Aug 2003 105,300 3.03

Sep 2003 105,700 0.38

Oct 2003 109,000 3.12

Nov 2003 106,800 -2.02

Dec 2003 107,300 0.47

Jan 2004 100,800 -6.06

Feb 2004 104,900 4.07

Mar 2004 109,200 4.10

Apr 2004 110,800 1.47

May 2004 113,900 2.80

Jun 2004 116,500 2.28

Jul 2004 114,200 -1.97

Aug 2004 112,100 -1.84

Sep 2004 111,300 -0.71

Oct 2004 113,100 1.62

Nov 2004 120,100 6.19

Dec 2004 118,300 -1.50

Jan 2005 113,900 -3.72

Feb 2005 123,300 8.25

Mar 2005 127,200 3.16

Apr 2005 129,200 1.57

May 2005 125,400 -2.94

Jun 2005 131,600 4.94

Jul 2005 132,700 0.84

Aug 2005 130,500 -1.66

Sep 2005 130,500 0.00

Oct 2005 129,500 -0.77

Nov 2005 130,800 1.00

Dec 2005 134,400 2.75

Jan 2006 126,800 -5.65

Feb 2006 132,300 4.34

Mar 2006 134,300 1.51

Apr 2006 140,400 4.54

May 2006 139,300 -0.78

Jun 2006 137,700 -1.15

Jul 2006 139,200 1.09

Aug 2006 141,500 1.65

Sep 2006 140,400 -0.78

Oct 2006 144,600 2.99

Nov 2006 147,100 1.73

Dec 2006 146,400 -0.48

Jan 2007 146,700 0.20

Feb 2007 150,400 2.52

Mar 2007 150,800 0.27

Apr 2007 152,800 1.33

May 2007 157,100 2.81

Jun 2007 159,600 1.59

Jul 2007 156,900 -1.69

Aug 2007 153,800 -1.98

Sep 2007 152,300 -0.98

Oct 2007 153,500 0.79

Nov 2007 153,000 -0.33

Dec 2007 155,900 1.90

Jan 2008 154,600 -0.83

Feb 2008 158,100 2.26

Mar 2008 158,000 -0.06

Apr 2008 155,100 -1.84

May 2008 155,100 0.00

Jun 2008 152,800 -1.48

Jul 2008 138,300 -9.49

Aug 2008 130,400 -5.71

Sep 2008 128,300 -1.61

Oct 2008 128,400 0.08

Nov 2008 116,700 -9.11

Dec 2008 116,100 -0.51

Jan 2009 121,700 4.82

Feb 2009 126,300 3.78

Mar 2009 130,600 3.40

Apr 2009 131,300 0.54

May 2009 136,200 3.73

Jun 2009 138,400 1.62

Jul 2009 142,000 2.60

Aug 2009 138,200 -2.68

Sep 2009 137,300 -0.65

Oct 2009 142,000 3.42

Nov 2009 142,200 0.14

Dec 2009 141,100 -0.77

Jan 2010 139,000 -1.49

Feb 2010 142,300 2.37

Mar 2010 146,100 2.67

Apr 2010 146,700 0.41

May 2010 150,500 2.59

Jun 2010 150,600 0.07

Jul 2010 148,500 -1.39

Aug 2010 143,500 -3.37

there have been lots of POSITIVE runs - but there has NEVER been a NEGATIVE run of 5 months in a row. We've now had two in a row, so one to watch for over the next three months. There have been a lot more 9% drops than I expected! Obviously it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the overriding trend is UP UP UP.... but perhaps we'll see the dip we are all keeping our fingers crossed for.

I've enjoyed this week immensely, long may it continue! (the price correction, not the week).

Even Mrs Harumph is starting to believe there could be a correction....

Edited by harumph

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there have been lots of POSITIVE runs - but there has NEVER been a NEGATIVE run of 5 months in a row. We've now had two in a row, so one to watch for over the next three months. There have been a lot more 9% drops than I expected! Obviously it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the overriding trend is UP UP UP.... but perhaps we'll see the dip we are all keeping our fingers crossed for.

I've enjoyed this week immensely, long may it continue! (the price correction, not the week).

Even Mrs Harumph is starting to believe there could be a correction....

Thanks Harumph, this has been interesting data to flag up

I'm not too sure that the monthly length of postive run is that important a signifier (as clearly you can have several small monthly negatives that may be smaller than one big drop down), rather the total fall.

The average loan also has to be seen in the full context of total volume - as the last year's flight to high deposits and safer buyers may have biased the loan average upwards significantly.

But it is still a good measure of how much cash is available between rungs of the ladder - and great news that it's now closing

Cheers

JJ

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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