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gruffydd

Housing Market Recovering In W Wales

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What I am seeing at the moment here in W Wales is the housing market picking up a little - I get the impression that prices aren't dropping like they were. In other parts of Wales, like Swansea and Bridgend, the housing market is still in a dire state though.

The interest rate cut was milked for all it was worth by EAs, etc. Also, SIPPS is preventing sellers from dropping prices as many genuinely think there is going to be a new boom next Spring.

This is very depressing! Shows you how important sentiment is.

THose who claim that if we're patient enough we'll see prices drop substantially are correct in my opinion. Those who claim that lobbying and campaigning to damage sentiment in the housing market just isn't worth it are more patient than I am! How long do you want to wait?

G

Edited by gruffydd

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Wales will not see drops IMPO until the South East HPs have lost 20 or 30 percent and 'house price crash' is being screamed on the TV and on every newspaper. Then, and only then, will South Wales HPs drop like a stone.

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Same in my neck of the woods.  Our local market seems to have picked up too!

Its depressing...

VI spin........25% rate cut..........forced sales.... "some" vendors seeing they are in a buyers market, and doing deals with frustrated would be buyers. Who now see that they can do a deal and buy. This is all to be expected, but once this supply of frustrated buyers drys up, the demand needed to fuel this market will fade.

Economic outlook is not conducive to support another bull run in house prices on top off the biggest financial bubble in history.

Fact: Head of the US Fedral Reserve Bank warns about house valuations.

Fact: Head of The Bank of England warns about house valuations.

Fact: Dutch Economics Minister warns over coming correction, no gov "bail out" for Home owners in negative equity.

Fact: Manufacturing industry officially in reccession.

Fact: Job losses growing.

Fact: Production facilites closures rising

Fact: More and more jobs being out sourced overseas.

Fact: houses still sell during corrections.

Fact: Most FTB'ers cannot afford to buy a house in over 95% of towns in the UK.

Fact: FTB'er participation in this present market is at its lowest level in history.

Fact: All bubbles burst...that's what bubbles do.

Fact: House values are cyclical they go from Overbought to Oversold

Where exactly do you think this market is right now, Overbought or Oversold?

Don't be fooled by this false "rally" its just the "dumb" money being sucked into a market headed down.

Its always hard to call the top or the bottom of a market, why else do you think people buy into a "Market Top" but they do ...and that's another Fact.

Of course the above is not to be construed as financial advice. Go ask somebody who makes money out of telling you what you can afford to buy, and why now is a "good time to buy.

Here's a list:

Banks

Building Societys

Mortgage Brokers

Estate Agents

Institute of Chartered Surveyors you don't buy they don't eat...go figure :rolleyes:

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VI spin........25% rate cut..........forced sales.... "some" vendors seeing they are in a buyers market, and doing deals with frustrated would be buyers. Who now see that they can do a deal and buy. This is all to be expected, but once this supply of frustrated buyers drys up, the demand needed to fuel this market will fade. 

Economic outlook is not conducive to support another bull run in house prices on top off the biggest financial bubble in history.

Fact: Head of the US Fedral Reserve Bank warns about house valuations.

Fact: Head of The Bank of England warns about house valuations.

Fact: Dutch Economics Minister warns over coming correction, no gov "bail out" for Home owners in negative equity.

Fact: Manufacturing industry officially in reccession.

Fact: Job losses growing.

Fact: Production facilites closures rising

Fact: More and more jobs being out sourced overseas.

Fact: houses still sell during corrections.

Fact: Most FTB'ers cannot afford to buy a house in over 95% of towns in the UK.

Fact: FTB'er participation in this present market is at its lowest level in history.

Fact: All bubbles burst...that's what bubbles do.

Fact: House values are cyclical they go from Overbought to Oversold

Where exactly do you think this market is right now, Overbought or Oversold?

Don't be fooled by this false "rally" its just the "dumb" money being sucked into a market headed down.

Its always hard to call the top or the bottom of a market, why else do you think people buy into a "Market Top" but they do ...and that's another Fact.

Of course the above is not to be construed as financial advice. Go ask somebody who makes money out of telling you what you can afford to buy, and why now is a "good time to buy.

Here's a list:

Banks

Building Societys

Mortgage Brokers

Estate Agents

Institute of Chartered Surveyors you don't buy they don't eat...go figure  :rolleyes:

Thanks Catch 22 , you are right, sensible words.

Lou

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Guest
The interest rate cut was milked for all it was worth by EAs, etc. Also, SIPPS is preventing sellers from dropping prices as many genuinely think there is going to be a new boom next Spring.

The IRs going DOWN was, but they didn't adjust their prices downwards to compensate for IRs going UP 3% -> 4.5%, and maybe you're right about sellers keeping prices high for SIPPs.

Dr Bubb and others have warned about 'false dawns'. Maybe this is one. Most factors remain unchanged, as Catch22 points out. We're probably going to see conflicting information each month for the next five years.

Last week I saw a very bearish article in the middle of the Daily Mail proclaiming house prices on the slide. This was the first time I personally have seen anything like that in a mainstream paper. Also, a snippet article recently suggested that regulatory noises are being made about property SIPPs, to ensure the won't be mis-sold, since I fully expect them to be ramped as much as possible under the circumstances, but then so is buy-to-let right now.

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haven't you heard.

this is a fantastic opportunity for first time buyers,prices have eased and affordability is becoming closer to normal.

they said that a couple of months ago,and expect that record to be repeated over and over right until the bottom.

what they are saying with regards to affordability is factually correct,and will continue to be the case this time next year,and next,and so on until we hit bottom!

.....however the opportunity gets better and better the lower the price goes!

DEAD-CAT BOUNCE!!(AGAIN).....just like spring!!!

Edited by oracle

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Guest wrongmove

This quote is from my favourite description of a housing bubble (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0407/S00172.htm)

6. Rising interest rates hurt confidence and profits, adding to the downwards pressure on prices. Real estate enters a ‘hanging’ slow phase. Asking prices stay high but there are few buyers. Building, subdivisions, and speculation drops quickly. Sometimes a panic or crash begins at this point; often the market just slowly dies. Many keep speculating during this phase as they’re unaware of the market having turned.

7. Real estate starts to get marked down in price. This tends to take quite a while as owners tend to cling to mortgaged property longer than they would to other assets, like shares. Foreclosures rise but the foreclosure process is not quick.

I think we are somewhere between 6 and 7 (depending on location and property type - i.e. "bouncing along the top". Some properties will always change hands. Today's Halifax figures reflect deals done a couple of months ago.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Rising interest rates hurt confidence and profits, adding to the downwards pressure on prices. Real estate enters a ‘hanging’ slow phase. Asking prices stay high but there are few buyers. Building, subdivisions, and speculation drops quickly. Sometimes a panic or crash begins at this point; often the market just slowly dies. Many keep speculating during this phase as they’re unaware of the market having turned.

Good quote.

I think we're still very much at stage 6 in my area (South Yorks).

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In North Yorkshire the market definitely picked up, king of like a belated spring bounce, but seems to have gone quiet again. The next few months will be crucial but I can't honestly say that prices have risen much at all, turnover has increased for the EAs reducing the needs for price reductions but the could change in the last Q 2005.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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