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ShedDweller

Plant Plummeting In Value

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I have been looking to but some new (to me) equipment and I phoned a friend who although not a dealer does occasionally source kit for people on commision (all very loose you tell him you want something, he goes to all the auctions anyway, if he sees something you asked about he calls you up to make sure you still want it and how much you are prepared to pay, He buys it for you .. and gets 10% commision). We were chatting about the equipment market and he told me an extra-ordinary thing. Apparently about 60 days ago prices fell off a cliff, Low end kit going for pennies, highend kit going unsold and then reappearing at the next auction sale ... none of the dealers are doing anything.

According to my mate the problem is that several large dealers have been supporting prices for several years, at auction they will buy anything they feel is not making the right price (I have seen this in action inthe auction room) .. and they have never had any trouble covering their stock purposes with bank loans .. There is no evidence but it would appear that there is something like a pricefixing cartel running ..

Apparently the banks have suddenly turned off the taps and combined with a number of companies going into liquidation the market is now flooded with plant and prices have dropped off a cliff ..

According to my mate it's all going to get alot cheaper as in his opinion at least two of the big dealers can't survive this ..

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I reckon something similar happened two years ago - similar to what happened in the car market.

I can't imaegin many scenarios worse for the construction industry than are apparent at the moment - public sector tap being cut off, new house market - homebuilders have kept their prices (and land values) artificially high and now are crimping construction to a level which they believe they can sll, whih is low and the private house market is in cloud cuckoo land with high pricing putting a real squeeze on transactions numbers. Meanwhile the business/industrial sector is still asking far too much for rent/purchase - it seems the landlords woudl rather have voids than re-let. Inflation in construction materials eye-watering - 20/30% for some basics.

If some eneties are trying to prop plant pricing against this they stand the chance of being wiped out.

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Are we talking construction here?

I've felt for quite a while that there's been a bit of a bubble in things like JCBs, dumpers and mini diggers.

I also think there's one in tractors and agricultural eqpt - judging by what was on the roads farmers didn't seem to go on as much of a buying spree on new kit this year as last.

From things I know. I'd say HGV prices have recovered quite a bit since the depths of the crash but are still very weak. There aren't many cars around that would have cost £80k new in 05/06 and be going for £15k or less now.

Vans have recovered a lot as well but are not nearly as buoyant as what seems to be more than a bit of a bubble in 2nd hand car prices and even fuel inefficient 4x4s - have no idea why people seem to be handing over the fat part of £20k for a 5+ year old Land Rover Discovery.

Forklift trucks are dead, dead, dead and prices are right through the floor. No problem picking up all sorts of decent machines that would have been £50k+ new for a couple of k. This suggests that an awful lot of goods these trucks used to be shifting around just isn't there anymore.

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....

I also think there's one in tractors and agricultural eqpt - judging by what was on the roads farmers didn't seem to go on as much of a buying spree on new kit this year as last.

....

The 50Kmh stuff and new common rail engines have helped the market for a few years now. Looking ahead the changes to the farm subsidies are a worry and I'm sure a good few folk are holding off to see how it goes. The idiot government didn't help reducing capital allowances either. Main issue I can see is over capacity which will lead to price cutting by big companies like Deere or Agco trying to squeeze out the smaller players. France is the biggest tractor market in Europe and we expect a 20% downturn next year. The grape pickers are out this week - a lot of big new kit still in that market, we see a lot of new New Holland.

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Are we talking construction here?

I've felt for quite a while that there's been a bit of a bubble in things like JCBs, dumpers and mini diggers.

No broadcast equipment IE:-It might be possible to manipulate the market as it's so small .. I cant imagine that anyone could manipulate the market in JCB's ..

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<br />No broadcast equipment IE:-It might be possible to manipulate the market as it's so small .. I cant imagine that anyone could manipulate the market in JCB's ..<br />

Isn't there a big European-wide investigation into price fixing of Truck prices going on?

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Same in road transport, back in 2007 Volvo were quoting delivery times of nearly a year for new tractor units, now you can get one virtually immediately, there are fields full of repossessed trucks and second-hand values have collapsed.

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I was discussing plant and agricultural machinery with my father in law just last month. You cant go wrong buying plant he was telling me, you can always sell it for more than you paid for it. Even 20 year old tractors were still worth a few grand he was saying.

He is worried that we have too much paper in the banks (as does he). I keep explaining to him that this is not the 1970's. He knows there is a lot of sense in my arguments but isn't completely convinced.

He knows the wealth he has came from investments in land and property. ergo he thinks were mad to not hold any. I know he's right too, in as much we are playing it very risky holding so much cash.

It's getting to a point now that we are considering buying an ex council property with 1/3rd of our cash. These places are well proportioned and have good size back gardens that would allow a decent lawn and a large veggie plot. Big kitchen and 3 double bedrooms. £160k in our neck of the woods, most of them are privately owned.

(Although my rational mind tells me these places should be going for £100k tops).

Anyways back on topic. Was thinking of trying to buy a small digger if one comes along at the right price. Trouble is I think the French are buying up anything cheap at the moment in our area, Kent.

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About 30 years ago one of my brothers, in a fit of entrepreneurial enthusiasm inspired by his lack of gainful employment, suggested we go to an Army Surplus auction. I was to provide the money, he'd sell the stuff on and we'd split the profits. There was all sorts of wonderful goodies up for grabs, pallets of camouflage netting, job lots of tools, lorry jacks, used vehicle batteries and odd job lots of metal - aluminium, stainless steel etc.

Another brother ran a small metal stockist at the time and he told us he'd buy everything we could lay our hands on (metal wise) and gave us the top prices to bid.

Off we went to some awful wind-blown army base near Bicester - inspected the lots we were interested and attended the auction in a local hotel that afternoon.

Wow, that was an eye opener. Everything, EVERYTHING, went for absolutely crazy prices. One guy at the front bid for virtually everything and just kept bidding until he won. There were a few spivvy types in front of us getting more and more narked that their day was going to be wasted. One of them lost his rag at one point and kept on bidding - for a huge trolley jack, sort of thing that would lift a 20 ton truck. His mates started telling him to stop but he was shouting out things like 'I'm not letting that b a s t a r d at the front have everything - I'm getting something' ... and they're all pulling him down and saying 'you won't make money at that price, let him have it' etc.

Anyway, we started chatting to the other (seasoned auction goers) there - asking them what the feck was going on. Why was aluminimium angle that you could buy new for £2 a metre (made up figures, can't remember) selling at auction for the equivalent of £2.50 a metre etc. Why were pallets of second hand camouflage netting selling for £400 a box?

They told us the bloke at the front would have an order from some African nut job to supply their army - and would make a fortune on it. (Ironically, it may have been being bought with our aid money!)

Another wheeze many years ago was to buy computers at auctions. We attended two as I recall. One was in North London somewhere - at the time the mob in question used to advertise continously (bit like Galliard Homes used to do) on London's local radio stations. I remember standing there somewhat bemused as a second hand Apple Mac sold for more than you could buy one new from the Mail Order merchants of the time. Everything went for truly daft prices.

And, thinking about property, I've been a few property auctions in my time and always walked out muttering 'Are they all mad? - as delapidated houses sold for more than similar, renovated ones in the same street had recently sold for.

Edited by Let's get it right

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It's getting to a point now that we are considering buying an ex council property with 1/3rd of our cash. These places are well proportioned and have good size back gardens that would allow a decent lawn and a large veggie plot. Big kitchen and 3 double bedrooms. £160k in our neck of the woods, most of them are privately owned.

(Although my rational mind tells me these places should be going for £100k tops).

I would suggest that if houses fall 10% generally over the next year then ex-council houses will fall 20% so 120k tops. What do you think?

Before buying I'd knock on doors to find out what kind of neighbors you'd have and sit in your car outside on evenings and weekends. One troublesome family can make life hell, even those who bought years ago can still be worse than council tenants! Start to look now and you might find a peach of a place in time.....

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no reduction in the price of Mortgage making machines....those products really do need specialised machinery to make them. very expensive and the staff costs!!!!...swoon

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I would suggest that if houses fall 10% generally over the next year then ex-council houses will fall 20% so 120k tops. What do you think?

Before buying I'd knock on doors to find out what kind of neighbors you'd have and sit in your car outside on evenings and weekends. One troublesome family can make life hell, even those who bought years ago can still be worse than council tenants! Start to look now and you might find a peach of a place in time.....

Not sure about England but in Wales Councils and Housing Associations have big powers now to chuck out unreasonable tenants.... which they use... and often the neighbours from hell end up renting in some private rental via housing benefit...

One of the things that puts me off buying is neighbours from hell. Where I rent now I have wonderful neighbours.

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My firm doing some stuff in a Central European country major turnkey facility, it has been cheaper to buy backhoe and telehandlers in the UK rather than hire them in situ. We will even ship them back as the cost of shipping internationally has also taken a similar cliff diving holiday. There are lots of cargo ships that can be hand for transporting large ammounts around looking at 50k for a charter hire 18 moths ago the price was triple that. Recession is finally here. Tin foil hats at the ready peeps.

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I would suggest that if houses fall 10% generally over the next year then ex-council houses will fall 20% so 120k tops. What do you think?

Before buying I'd knock on doors to find out what kind of neighbors you'd have and sit in your car outside on evenings and weekends. One troublesome family can make life hell, even those who bought years ago can still be worse than council tenants! Start to look now and you might find a peach of a place in time.....

We had a good look around he whole estate today and the place is very tidy. I would be surprised if as many as 20% were non privately owned. The front gardens were all pretty tidy.

I must admit it worries me too that the neighbours could be a nightmare and that council houses might be harder hit if the prices go down. However the size of the houses and gardens as well as the width of the road which is tree lined, is so much better than any new build stuff around the town. You can easily have nightmare neighbours anywhere if you think about it. At the end of the day I think this is better housing stock for the money.

They shouldn't cost more than 100k really and neither should the much smaller proportioned new build stuff either in my book. We can buy a place for £135K today that needs total renovation including C/H and windows. 15 to 20k spent would make a lovely home. If we lose 50k on it then we can probably afford our dream home which are currently priced 650K + here.

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We had a good look around he whole estate today and the place is very tidy. I would be surprised if as many as 20% were non privately owned. The front gardens were all pretty tidy.

I must admit it worries me too that the neighbours could be a nightmare and that council houses might be harder hit if the prices go down. However the size of the houses and gardens as well as the width of the road which is tree lined, is so much better than any new build stuff around the town. You can easily have nightmare neighbours anywhere if you think about it. At the end of the day I think this is better housing stock for the money.

They shouldn't cost more than 100k really and neither should the much smaller proportioned new build stuff either in my book. We can buy a place for £135K today that needs total renovation including C/H and windows. 15 to 20k spent would make a lovely home. If we lose 50k on it then we can probably afford our dream home which are currently priced 650K + here.

Yep, sounds like a nice estate and certainly trees make a difference. I would be sure to knock on doors though, just say that you're thinking of moving to this estate and wondered what kind of place it was. Any feedback, fck off for example, would be useful!

The 3 bed places here now selling for 160k, down from 210, 220k. The crumbling 20's semis behind us are now around 300k, down from around 325k. I know which I'd choose (assuming good neighbours!)

Btw I'd discribe my neighbours as reserved, almost to a fault!

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Yep, sounds like a nice estate and certainly trees make a difference. I would be sure to knock on doors though, just say that you're thinking of moving to this estate and wondered what kind of place it was. Any feedback, fck off for example, would be useful!

The 3 bed places here now selling for 160k, down from 210, 220k. The crumbling 20's semis behind us are now around 300k, down from around 325k. I know which I'd choose (assuming good neighbours!)

Btw I'd discribe my neighbours as reserved, almost to a fault!

stay on topic you two lovebirds

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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