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Hugh Hendry Hardtalk Video

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A nice interview with Hugh Hendry, he sees a future in which the gains to financial speculation will be much smaller. He guesses that there will be 80% fewer hedge funds in 10 years than there are now because it will be very difficult to make money when stockmarkets and house prices are not rising.

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A nice interview with Hugh Hendry, he sees a future in which the gains to financial speculation will be much smaller. He guesses that there will be 80% fewer hedge funds in 10 years than there are now because it will be very difficult to make money when stockmarkets and house prices are not rising.

iPlayer link

Thanks. Nice one.

Basically easy profit from financial speculation comes from unconstrained monetary inflation. Without that...yup..get back to the real world.

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A nice interview with Hugh Hendry, he sees a future in which the gains to financial speculation will be much smaller. He guesses that there will be 80% fewer hedge funds in 10 years than there are now because it will be very difficult to make money when stockmarkets and house prices are not rising.

iPlayer link

Exactly. Much easier to make money when asset prices are rising than when they are falling (unless they take bigger risks), and they claim it is all down to their skills rather than the market.

In the states the adage is that 4 out of 5 fund mangers under perform the S&P500 over a five year period.

It would be nice if there were 80% fewer properdee developers and BTLers too ;)

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Another nice bit on 21:41 where He talks about if you have a certain skill that 1 billion chinese can also do, do we want to double

your salary so that you can have a good time and we keep those Chinese in poverty.

(Relevant to the IT contractor outsourcing debate we had few days back).

Towards 23:00, he talks about house price and broad stock market index not higher than it is today for 20 years and that will encourage people to do real things rather than to do financial speculation.

Edited by easybetman

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Another nice bit on 21:41 where He talks about if you have a certain skill that 1 billion chinese can also do, do we want to double

your salary so that you can have a good time and we keep those Chinese in poverty.

but he was calling a China bubble - property and stocks crash only 6 months ago??

Towards 23:00, he talks about house price and broad stock market index not higher than it is today for 20 years and that will encourage people to do real things rather than to do financial speculation.

another western stockmarket buy signal then...

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but he was calling a China bubble - property and stocks crash only 6 months ago??

another western stockmarket buy signal then...

There are probably good buy for selected western stock...I have no interest in buying the broad market index.

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Another nice bit on 21:41 where He talks about if you have a certain skill that 1 billion chinese can also do, do we want to double

your salary so that you can have a good time and we keep those Chinese in poverty.

Why not apply the same argument to food- why should you eat well when there are billions going hungry? This is bullshite psudeo morality.

The truth is that most of those who advocate the virtue of fair competition for work are extremely careful to ensure their own work is not subject to such competition. And as we already see, as those billions start to gain the skills that make them a threat to the more skilled and articulate sectors of society, there will be a change of tune and much talk of government action to prevent this threat materialising.

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Why not apply the same argument to food- why should you eat well when there are billions going hungry? This is bullshite psudeo morality.

The truth is that most of those who advocate the virtue of fair competition for work are extremely careful to ensure their own work is not subject to such competition. And as we already see, as those billions start to gain the skills that make them a threat to the more skilled and articulate sectors of society, there will be a change of tune and much talk of government action to prevent this threat materialising.

Actually, what will happen is the Chindians will develop there own class of bullshitters professionals (solicitors, property developers, dentists etc) to shaft service their native population.

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Interesting that 'Speculator' is now a dirty word.

The group of speculators with the largest 'funds under management' are people who borrow to speculate on the property market. They've speculated at high risk and lost, and passed their losses onto their banks, which were foolish to lend to them, and then to the government and ultimately taxpayers who have to foot the bill. So I agree. 'Speculator' is a dirty word.

Hedge funds on the other hand are not responsible for any of this. The make a lot of money by taking calculated risks and revealing the 'Truth' as Hendry puts it. London is a center of excellence for hedge funds and they continue to pay a lot of tax, and spend a lot of money here, which we need. We should welcome them here. They didn't need bailing out with taxpayers money, and they didn't cause the housing boom. The government is just attempting to find a scape goat for its own f**k up.

Edited by no accountant

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...and revealing the 'Truth' as Hendry puts it....

for example, if they were responsible for shorting Greece, then we should be grateful for the too. The quicker they can be stopped from borrowing more and more money the better. Someone needs to supply the reality check. The ECB, Brussels etc live in La La land and will never admit that Greece cannot afford to repay its debts.

PS I don't work for a hedge fund, before you ask!!

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You could go even further and say that a group of people who are willing to take a position against a government could be seen as a regulator of that government's policy. If the policy is floored, e.g. the Euro, then the plucky hedge funds will take a position against it, revealing the weakness of the policy-makers stupid ideas.

No wonder the government want to curtail them. They don't like being regulated themselves!

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...I think stock markets in 10 years time, I think stock markets in 20 years time, maybe no higher than they are today. I think house prices likewise.

I wish he'd been asked his on opinion on inflation, £, QE, gold etc. Decent bloke IMHO.

Edited by Constable

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A nice interview with Hugh Hendry, he sees a future in which the gains to financial speculation will be much smaller. He guesses that there will be 80% fewer hedge funds in 10 years than there are now because it will be very difficult to make money when stockmarkets and house prices are not rising.

iPlayer link

Where I live the BBC does not allow you to watch the video.

Any alternative links?

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Thanks! Saw it!

I must admit, it really gets interesting in the last few minutes.

Yeah, the interviewer wasted a lot of time attacking free market capitalism in general to which Hendry just raised the usual defences. Would have been nice for them to spend more time on the specifics of where he thinks we are now and where we're going.

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Yeah, the interviewer wasted a lot of time attacking free market capitalism in general to which Hendry just raised the usual defences. Would have been nice for them to spend more time on the specifics of where he thinks we are now and where we're going.

The interviewer seems to be obsessed with trying to get Hendy and hedge funds to accept a larger portion of the blame for the financial crisis, what about the media? what about apportioning their share of the blame for encouraging the credit bubble? Property porn shows, political ass kissing, they cheered the bubble and swept criticism under the carpet. The BBC and people like this interviewer were in a prime position to get information about what was going on, and they were in the key position where they could have informed people, Hendry was out there ringing the warning bell for years, along with people like Jim Rodgers, Schiff, Rubenuo, Taleb, Puplava etc..

The interviewer criticises hedge-funds for the problems caused in Hungary, but where was the financial medias warnings and criticism when Hungary borrowed money in foreign currencies?

Sure capitalism and Hedge-funds played a role in the financial crisis, but trying to pin the whole thing on them is wrong, especially when its being done by the people who utterly failed in their role to simply report what was going on.

Edited by enrieb

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Why not apply the same argument to food- why should you eat well when there are billions going hungry? This is bullshite psudeo morality.

The truth is that most of those who advocate the virtue of fair competition for work are extremely careful to ensure their own work is not subject to such competition. And as we already see, as those billions start to gain the skills that make them a threat to the more skilled and articulate sectors of society, there will be a change of tune and much talk of government action to prevent this threat materialising.

When the billions are organised and then become educated and competing for the finite food supply, then indeed you will face the scenario you described

Many businesses (especially small businesses) in the UK face competitions from competitors located in tax heaven and from non EU, non VAT charging businesses

and they just get on with it (and so are 30% or so disadvantaged to begin with). They didn't exactly ask government to pay a tax credit for every things that they sell etc.

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The interviewer seems to be obsessed with trying to get Hendy and hedge funds to accept a larger portion of the blame for the financial crisis

Unfortunately 99% of politicians, journalists, and the general public are stuck with the "up is always good" mindset and see anybody even faintly associated with "down" as the root of all evil (e.g. short sellers, HPCers). I think it's a mental imbalance caused by 40 years of monetary expansion. It's like the BBC always reporting stock market rises as a good thing. They're not a good thing if you don't own shares and are planning to buy them in the future (e.g. if you are young). Financial journalists seem by and large too dumb to realise that there is somebody on the other side of every trade.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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