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Converted Lurker

The Black Art Of "topping Out"

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The Halifax report is seriously skewed, no credible report can base itself solely on asking prices. Looking at the areas close to me the majority of houses for sale are in the 350K+ bracket. Last year they were in the 250K bracket, therefore this is a significant change in the fundamental asking price, I`m sure this is repeated nationwide. It also reveals a pattern of thought, most vendors desperately attempting to top out as they chase the market down. Only selling prices have credibility, even there you could argue that if the majority of houses being sold are at the top end then this once again would surely skew the figures?

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The Halifax report is seriously skewed, no credible report can base itself solely on asking prices. Looking at the areas close to me the majority of houses for sale are in the 350K+ bracket. Last year they were in the 250K bracket, therefore this is a significant change in the fundamental asking price, I`m sure this is repeated nationwide. It also reveals a pattern of thought, most vendors desperately attempting to top out as they chase the market down. Only selling prices have credibility, even there you could argue that if the majority of houses being sold are at the top end then this once again would surely skew the figures?

I think you are right about "topping out". I see houses asking prices which are new highs for the area in London, when selling prices are static or falling. They are pricing in discounts which they expect to have to give to buyers.

Also, of any given type of house (e.g. terrace in a certain area) only the best are selling, whilst poorer quality homes are languishing on the market for long periods of time. This skews the figures again because only good quality houses are selling. In a normal mix there are a lot of poorer quality houses contributing to the average as well.

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The Halifax index is based on purchase price (not asking), is like-for-like adjusted to account for short-term variations in the type or size of houses being sold, and the large 1.6% August rise is in the seasonally adjusted figures. However some of the ODPM data on loan ratios, etc, is based on simple averages and could suffer from the problems outlined above; but agree that the ‘attraction to quality’ might distort a like-for-like index. The sellers' 'pricing in of discounts' would be most visible on the rightmove index.

Edited by spline

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"The standardised average price is calculated using the Halifax`s mix adjusted methodology. :lol:

The Halifax house price index is prepared from imformation that we believe is collated with care but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology :o and to edite or discontinue the indices at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the indices for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk"

Hmmmmmm....now what could they mean?

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Standard get out clause B) … but it does seem that August was popular with the buyers, and this fits with a recent upsurge in sold boards I am seeing in may area, and then the IR cut, while tiny, has given some confidence back … :unsure:

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Edited by spline

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The Halifax index is based on purchase price (not asking),

Ive been looking at their methodology myself today and did wonder what exacty that meant... It extremely vague, particularly when coupled with "The data refer to mortgage transactions at the time they are approved rather than when they are completed"; "Whilst this may cover some cases which may never proceed to completion"; and of course the disclaimer highlighted by Converted Lurker

Can anyone shed any light on what this actually means??

I reckon they might be spinning a yarn... :o;)

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Ive been looking at their methodology myself today and did wonder what exacty that meant... It extremely vague, particularly when coupled with "The data refer to mortgage transactions at the time they are approved rather than when they are completed"; "Whilst this may cover some cases which may never proceed to completion"; and of course the disclaimer highlighted by Converted Lurker

Can anyone shed any light on what this actually means??

I reckon they might be spinning a yarn...  :o  ;)

"HBOS has 22 million customers and provides banking for some of the UK's leading companies and organisations. This gives us a unique vantage point on the economy and its markets. Using this insight, we produce a range of economic research that contributes to debate and understanding of economic and market developments. These reports are publicly available and appear on a regular basis."

and this 4 page..well actually 3 page report is the best they can do? With access to the wealth of info. they have they could create any figures they wish to reflect what is best for their business.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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