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Peak Oil All Over The Radar

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http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/13/suncor-energy-oil-intelligent-investing-cenovus.html

We'll be living in a dream world. Things in the oil world are going to be just fine for the immediate future. We can buy gasoline at $3.00 per gallon or perhaps $2.75. That is fine for now. The problems come around 2013 or 2014, when ... we begin to run tight.

That begins to scare people, since they can look ahead and see that the issue is not going to be resolved quickly, since you have to find the oil many years in advance of being able to produce it. We just haven't found enough oil for a number of years, so this problem is now beyond the reach of some big, major discovery that suddenly would provide us with a sufficiency. And so far, we have no technological breakthrough to assist us. "

A bind is clearly coming. We think that the peak in production will actually occur in the period 2015 to 2020. And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use 2017 or 2018. That would suggest that around 2015, we will hit a near-plateau of production around the world, and we will hold it for maybe four or five years. On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving down. By 2020, we should be headed in a downward direction for oil output in the world each year instead of an upward direction, as we are today.

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Jonathan.s.callahan on September 20, 2010 - 12:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments top

I can't see why we will suffer that much in the UK

The UK has seen a 40% drop in indigenous energy production in the last decade. You guys just barely skated through this winter with three Gas Balancing Alerts (GBA's). Is your natural gas supply really that secure?

It's about more than just oil. Up to now you've been able to borrow money from the future to import energy in all its forms along with net imports of foodstuffs. If that ability to borrow money from the future ever stops or even just slows down you could be in a world of hurt.J

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http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/13/suncor-energy-oil-intelligent-investing-cenovus.html

We'll be living in a dream world. Things in the oil world are going to be just fine for the immediate future. We can buy gasoline at $3.00 per gallon or perhaps $2.75. That is fine for now. The problems come around 2013 or 2014, when ... we begin to run tight.

That begins to scare people, since they can look ahead and see that the issue is not going to be resolved quickly, since you have to find the oil many years in advance of being able to produce it. We just haven't found enough oil for a number of years, so this problem is now beyond the reach of some big, major discovery that suddenly would provide us with a sufficiency. And so far, we have no technological breakthrough to assist us. "

A bind is clearly coming. We think that the peak in production will actually occur in the period 2015 to 2020. And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use 2017 or 2018. That would suggest that around 2015, we will hit a near-plateau of production around the world, and we will hold it for maybe four or five years. On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving down. By 2020, we should be headed in a downward direction for oil output in the world each year instead of an upward direction, as we are today.

There have been some massive gas discoveries recently and being worked on. Plenty enough for all current uses. There will be peak oil but not peak energy - lots of other more minor sources and renewables will help too.

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I think what will happen is a lot like what happened when it hit $147 a barrel. The economy will go into recession, oil will fall back (albeit to higher lows) and the cycle will repeat itself, going a little higher each time. I highly doubt it will go to £10 a litre or something overnight. Unless the dollar stops being used or something, which i guess is possible, but unlikely.

There is still massive reluctance to change habits in the US, best selling vehicle, still, less than 4 decades of 'cheap' oil left, is a 5.4 V8 Ford F150 that averages 13mpg, which i find amazing. Dont know how much could be saved if the average american drove a 1.6 Ford Focus, doing 40mpg or so, IIRC the best selling UK car.

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I think what will happen is a lot like what happened when it hit $147 a barrel. The economy will go into recession, oil will fall back (albeit to higher lows) and the cycle will repeat itself, going a little higher each time. I highly doubt it will go to £10 a litre or something overnight. Unless the dollar stops being used or something, which i guess is possible, but unlikely.

There is still massive reluctance to change habits in the US, best selling vehicle, still, less than 4 decades of 'cheap' oil left, is a 5.4 V8 Ford F150 that averages 13mpg, which i find amazing. Dont know how much could be saved if the average american drove a 1.6 Ford Focus, doing 40mpg or so, IIRC the best selling UK car.

Doesn't the average yank consider focus sized cars to be micro compacts, that are death traps because of their tiny tiny size?

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Doesn't the average yank consider focus sized cars to be micro compacts, that are death traps because of their tiny tiny size?

They are death traps when they have to share the road with Chelsea tractors.

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Went to the US recently for the first time since I lived there in 2000. HUGE difference in the number of small cars around.

Also so much 'environment' stuff all over the shop - I was very surprised. It is definately changing. Just not at a breakneck speed.

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I think what will happen is a lot like what happened when it hit $147 a barrel. The economy will go into recession, oil will fall back (albeit to higher lows) and the cycle will repeat itself, going a little higher each time. I highly doubt it will go to £10 a litre or something overnight. Unless the dollar stops being used or something, which i guess is possible, but unlikely.

There is still massive reluctance to change habits in the US, best selling vehicle, still, less than 4 decades of 'cheap' oil left, is a 5.4 V8 Ford F150 that averages 13mpg, which i find amazing. Dont know how much could be saved if the average american drove a 1.6 Ford Focus, doing 40mpg or so, IIRC the best selling UK car.

I read 'Half Gone' by Jeremy Leggett recently. An interesting point made in it was that if the US raised it's average MPG by 5 (I think that was the figure), then it could stop buying oil from the Middle East. I would have thought that was quite a big pay off for relatively little effort. Anyone heard anything similar?

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I think what will happen is a lot like what happened when it hit $147 a barrel. The economy will go into recession, oil will fall back (albeit to higher lows) and the cycle will repeat itself, going a little higher each time. I highly doubt it will go to £10 a litre or something overnight. Unless the dollar stops being used or something, which i guess is possible, but unlikely.

There is still massive reluctance to change habits in the US, best selling vehicle, still, less than 4 decades of 'cheap' oil left, is a 5.4 V8 Ford F150 that averages 13mpg, which i find amazing. Dont know how much could be saved if the average american drove a 1.6 Ford Focus, doing 40mpg or so, IIRC the best selling UK car.

Err no you are completely wrong. I work in the "clean-up" industry (oil and gas) here in the US. There is huge change in the habits of the US consumer. The F150 still sells well but small cars are the best seller (I know a few dealers). We are finding more and more natural gas and it may have escaped a few people but New York taxis run on nat gas. All our bus services here in RI are nat gas. Plus the gulf oil spill was the final wakey wakey call. The nuclear debate is wide open again (more so when the Rebublicans get the Senate back in a couple of months) so alternatives are back on the agenda and oil is a dirty word even in Texas. Nope you are wide of the mark on that call.

Edited by tomwatkins

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I read 'Half Gone' by Jeremy Leggett recently. An interesting point made in it was that if the US raised it's average MPG by 5 (I think that was the figure), then it could stop buying oil from the Middle East. I would have thought that was quite a big pay off for relatively little effort. Anyone heard anything similar?

I am not sure of the figure but I understand that its now a miniscule amount that comes from the Mid East to the US. Even so the Jewish lobby will keep that question on the agenda ad infinitum which is another thing altogether. Canada is becoming more and more the main source for imports. Price resistance here is around 3 bucks a gallon according to my local gas station-he notices a big change in consumption when the magic figure is breached.

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While I believe in Peak Oil - I work for an oil company that has this problem on our books. :(

The feary of Peak Oil is beginning to sound like the sort of books that predict the world is going to end in 1998 or 2004 - or was it 2012 or 2014?

Peak oil will not be an event like an asteroid - think of it as an ice-age.

Some years colder, some years warmer - but we're going to freeze (or pay the price for our western ways to some Arab Sheikh)

The big question in the Oil industry is how the realtionship plays out between:

1) the West / IOCs

2) OPEC+Russia / anywhere with surplus oil

and

3) China / other developing countries.

That, today is the Great Game.

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Looks as if some in German Military believe in PEAK OIL happening now !!!

peak_oil2.jpg

see this link : My link

German Military Braces for Scarcity After ‘Peak Oil’

By JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF

A study by a German military think tank leaked to the Internet warns of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in as little as 15 years as a result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies.

Associated PressThe study was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a branch of the German military. It was leaked in August, and its authenticity was confirmed last week by the German newspaper Der Spiegel.

The study states that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.”

The concept of “peak oil” is a controversial one, as it signifies the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum level and then enters a permanent decline. As oil is a finite resource, most energy experts consider the eventual peak and decline of world oil production to be an inevitable reality.

But the timing of this zenith — whether in the near term, or some distant future — is a subject of fierce debate.

Many prominent national and intergovernmental energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency, maintain that oil reserves are sufficient to meet demand until at least 2030.

The German military study, which was analyzed and partly translated into English by Der Spiegel, declares that once peak oil begins in earnest, economies around the globe — including Germany’s — will probably struggle with price shocks as a result of higher transportation costs, and “shortages of vital goods could arise.”

“In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,” the study continues.

The lead author of the study, Lt. Col. Thomas Will, declined to comment to Der Speigel, as did the German Defense Ministry. According to Der Speigel, the report was in draft form and not intended for release to the public and had yet to be vetted by the German military leadership and other government agencies.

The German military is not alone in its concern over the implications of peak oil. According to an Aug. 22 report by Britain’s Guardian newspaper, British government ministries have been privately canvassing opinions from the energy industry and scientists on peak oil, while publicly dismissing fears of an imminent oil shortage as alarmist.

Fueling suspicion, the British government has rebuffed news media requests to turn over policy documents related to peak oil.

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Peak oil will put the brakes on economic growth, so how are we going to reduce debt?

Oil hit $147 and the world economy crashed to the ground back in 2008

we are a net importer of oil, Gas, Coal and 40% of our food plus ferts, we need to earn enough money as a country to be able to afford these imports, nobody wants funny money for commodities, in the meantime we want to increase immigration - recipe for disaster?

me thinks so!

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Liberal Democrat Conference: Chris Huhne says 'green jobs' will offset drag from budget cuts

The ''green deal'' will lead to thousands of workers modernising some 26 million homes to make them more energy efficient as part of the coalition's ambition to be the ''greenest Government ever''.

So that's someone employed to go to every home teaching the occupants how to turn lights off etc. What fun.

At a fringe meeting, Mr Huhne revealed he had instructed his officials to look at the impact of a 1970s-style oil price spike on British industry.

Warning of energy price fluctuations in the future, he said: "We will have a world where there may be lots of shocks, we may well have oil price rises which are similar to the ones that we had in the 1970s, a doubling.

"I have asked for some work to be done in the department about what the impact of that might be in terms of British business, businesses that have nothing to do with energy, with green growth, entirely outside.

Why can't they just come out and say what it's really called?

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According to a recent report apparently Chinese and the undeveloped world's use of oil will be something like 80% of global production before too long. If peak oil is a real problem then the powers would be making more of an effort on easy cutbacks They aren't even cutting down on masses of Christmas lights on a Christmas tree on every roundabout that cumulatively must cost taxpayers a small fortune. Projects like the Olympics must cost vast numbers of barrels of oil with the construction and moving people all around the world etc.

None of it really adds up.

Perhaps the reality is that they've decided that oil is albiogenic but they just aren't letting on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

After all fossil fuel and peak oil is just another theory.

Edited by billybong

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I often thought about that myself, but if you look at the pattern of moves for the last 5-10 years it surgests other wise. "They" known about this for some time & if Oil came out of the bowls of the Earth China would have dug some rather deep holes by now.

Mike

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Liberal Democrat Conference: Chris Huhne says 'green jobs' will offset drag from budget cuts

So that's someone employed to go to every home teaching the occupants how to turn lights off etc. What fun.

Why can't they just come out and say what it's really called?

Sounds like a lot of make-work to me. Just read over an energy report at a house my lad is thinking of buying. Basically, there is F'all that can be done to improve it, but they did suggest fitting a 2.5 kW PV system, although there is no roof aspect suitable for it. Cavity wall that's foamed, lots of loft insulation, good double glazing. Still doesn't score very well on the ratings though. Now how many houses in the UK have solid walls? Loads and loads. How are they going to get round that? And what about all those listed buildings that aren't allowed to have modern double glazing?

What I AM not looking forward to is a load of jobsworths telling me I must have half-an-inch cut off my interior doors and loads of changes made to the heating system to meet the new building regs.

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According to a recent report apparently Chinese and the undeveloped world's use of oil will be something like 80% of global production before too long. If peak oil is a real problem then the powers would be making more of an effort on easy cutbacks They aren't even cutting down on masses of Christmas lights on a Chrismas tree on every roundabout that cumulatively must cost taxpayers a small fortune. Projects like the Olympics must cost vast numbers of barrels of oil with the construction and moving people all around the world etc.

None of it really adds up.

Perhaps the reality is that they've decided that oil is albiogenic but they just aren't letting on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

After all fossil fuel and peak oil is just another theory.

Thankfully i know you are taking the piss :)

But how do you tell 65 million people that they may as well forget any aspirations they had for the future, quite frankly, they (our dear Leaders) don't quite know how to tell us.

Have you ever tried to explain peak oil or peak energy or the coming energy crisis or power down to an office type you work with? You are instantly looked upon as a Nut Job

It was the same back in 2006, when like minded people like us on this forum predicted economic meltdown, was it not?

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Thankfully i know you are taking the piss :)

But how do you tell 65 million people that they may as well forget any aspirations they had for the future, quite frankly, they (our dear Leaders) don't quite know how to tell us.

Have you ever tried to explain peak oil or peak energy or the coming energy crisis or power down to an office type you work with? You are instantly looked upon as a Nut Job

It was the same back in 2006, when like minded people like us on this forum predicted economic meltdown, was it not?

Don't bother trying to explain...

In 3 weeks time I will be sitting on top of Ghawar for the forseeable. I shall keep my ear to the ground in regard to when to expect the sh1tstorm to really start

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Sounds like a lot of make-work to me. Just read over an energy report at a house my lad is thinking of buying. Basically, there is F'all that can be done to improve it, but they did suggest fitting a 2.5 kW PV system, although there is no roof aspect suitable for it. Cavity wall that's foamed, lots of loft insulation, good double glazing. Still doesn't score very well on the ratings though. Now how many houses in the UK have solid walls? Loads and loads. How are they going to get round that? And what about all those listed buildings that aren't allowed to have modern double glazing?

What I AM not looking forward to is a load of jobsworths telling me I must have half-an-inch cut off my interior doors and loads of changes made to the heating system to meet the new building regs.

Payback over 100 years on an east-west orientated array ;)

How about one of these?

http://www.volvoxengineering.com/Slow%20Speed%20CHP.htm

And a mutual arrangement with some local pubs?

Edited by Kurt Barlow

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Ah, Peak Oil, the doctrine that ignores reality.

Gas and electricity are chepest they've been for a long time, not much sign of shortage there thanks.

Ah,Pick it Down, the HPC postage who fails to grasp the concept of peak <_<

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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