Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
jplevene

Interest Rates Will Rise In....

Recommended Posts

The Bank of England will raise interest rates in February. Pointers that indicate this are:

1) Inflation is high and needs to be controlled. The BOE propaganda is getting more unbelievable by the day, and not even the monetary committee are stupid enough to believe the lies or that we believe them.

2) The committee don't want to be blamed for a housing downturn.

3) House price YOY will be negative by January.

4) Banks have managed to recover and create a nice buffer of cash due to the low rates.

5) Interest rates are not being passed onto consumers or small businesses so rises will make little or no difference.

6) Recession will be pretty much a sure thing by February.

7) 0.5% was supposed to be a short term emergency rate and is not working. 2 years on (February), if rates are still low and nothing has improved, there will be little evidence to support low rates.

By doing a raise in February, the BOE can't be blamed for any damage caused.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BOE won't raise rates in a recession that's just stupid.

They will if inflation continues its upward path - no choice or the consequences are worse in the longer run. It is actually damaging to have interest rates this low for so long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OP. No disrespect and I do appreciate that this site is often about people just expressing a personal opinion but over the past few weeks every thread I've read that you've started has been entirely baseless. Pure conjecture and supposition. You provide zero solid evidence for your arguments and make numerous statements of fact.

Maybe it's just the way I interpret your style of writing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it a lot will depend on wage increases. If there are no pay rises inflation will just come to a halt at some point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also they will wait 6 months to see the effect of the VAT raise on 1st Jan.

No significant (above 3%) rise for the next 5 years IMHO. The effect of the government cuts is going to be severe and seriously knock demand. It wont be until the run up to the next election that we will see the benefits.

I have spoken to some pretty senior individuals who have stated that next years local by-elections are going to be a bloodbath for the Cons and the libs. Reason? The redundancies will be announced, en masse, over a 2 month period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OP. No disrespect and I do appreciate that this site is often about people just expressing a personal opinion but over the past few weeks every thread I've read that you've started has been entirely baseless. Pure conjecture and supposition. You provide zero solid evidence for your arguments and make numerous statements of fact.

Maybe it's just the way I interpret your style of writing.

Its been like that since I've been here, there is an opinion espoused by everybody and eventually this scatter gun approach somebody will hit jackpot and be right. It appears currently to be Cnago and Injin about printing and hyperinflationary holocaust though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Bank of England will raise interest rates in February. Pointers that indicate this are:

1) Inflation is high and needs to be controlled. The BOE propaganda is getting more unbelievable by the day, and not even the monetary committee are stupid enough to believe the lies or that we believe them.

2) The committee don't want to be blamed for a housing downturn.

3) House price YOY will be negative by January.

4) Banks have managed to recover and create a nice buffer of cash due to the low rates.

5) Interest rates are not being passed onto consumers or small businesses so rises will make little or no difference.

6) Recession will be pretty much a sure thing by February.

7) 0.5% was supposed to be a short term emergency rate and is not working. 2 years on (February), if rates are still low and nothing has improved, there will be little evidence to support low rates.

By doing a raise in February, the BOE can't be blamed for any damage caused.

Time for Ben to raise IR...recession is now officially over in the US. When Ben does his bits then Mervyn will follow.

Posted here to from BoE quaterly bulletin which basically says MEW is good and that inflation takes about 2 years to come down after initial IR rise and

that IR cease to have effect on inflation after 3 years.

So why would MPC want to raise interest rate? Given the above, if they want to raise rate they would have done it months ago.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=151373

Edited by easybetman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it a lot will depend on wage increases. If there are no pay rises inflation will just come to a halt at some point.

Ah yes, thats exactly it!

Except, when i quote for a job, i offer a price which will allow me to survive. I'm a bit confused that anyone would expect me to work for free or at a loss. In reality i would be better of winding up the business and signing on than lose money.

So, why on earth will prices always fall? If i wont pay enough for the next person to make enough to survive they will not make/ do the service or product.

In the late 90's C and A left the UK but remain a force in Europe. Why? Because they saw that prices were faling to below the point of break even and thus it just was not worthwhile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Bank of England will raise interest rates in February. Pointers that indicate this are:

1) Inflation is high and needs to be controlled. The BOE propaganda is getting more unbelievable by the day, and not even the monetary committee are stupid enough to believe the lies or that we believe them.

2) The committee don't want to be blamed for a housing downturn.

3) House price YOY will be negative by January.

4) Banks have managed to recover and create a nice buffer of cash due to the low rates.

5) Interest rates are not being passed onto consumers or small businesses so rises will make little or no difference.

6) Recession will be pretty much a sure thing by February.

7) 0.5% was supposed to be a short term emergency rate and is not working. 2 years on (February), if rates are still low and nothing has improved, there will be little evidence to support low rates.

By doing a raise in February, the BOE can't be blamed for any damage caused.

most of these points are exactly why rates won't be raised.

Think I'll stick with my tracker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BOE won't raise rates in a recession that's just stupid.

And if they raise rates after the recession which triggers another recession.

Low rates are doing more damage than good and the reasons BOE are giving why they should be kept low are propaganda lies (inflation will fall within target, etc.). If you think they care about you or other businesses besides the financial markets (see Deputy Governor Bean's comments in USA) you are on cloud cuckoo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless there is a Sterling crisis ......

The markets have put up with it being where it is for quite a while without grumbling. "The markets" doing something about negative real interest rates, sounded totally plausible. Seems they don't mind them too much at present.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And if they raise rates after the recession which triggers another recession.

Low rates are doing more damage than good and the reasons BOE are giving why they should be kept low are propaganda lies (inflation will fall within target, etc.). If you think they care about you or other businesses besides the financial markets (see Deputy Governor Bean's comments in USA) you are on cloud cuckoo.

So in the spirit of a previous poster then pleas explain why you think low interest rates are doing more damage than good?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OP. No disrespect and I do appreciate that this site is often about people just expressing a personal opinion but over the past few weeks every thread I've read that you've started has been entirely baseless. Pure conjecture and supposition. You provide zero solid evidence for your arguments and make numerous statements of fact.

Maybe it's just the way I interpret your style of writing.

Are you being really ignorant and saying that predictions shouldn't be mentioned here unless they are guaranteed (or at least please you).

Oh dear, I must have left my crystal ball up your a*se,

Lets see my predictions, as I don't just predict on economic stats, I also use political and social motivation:

1) In 2007 I predicted that banks would crash, they did (people actually called me mad for this one).

2) In 2007 I predicted the property crash and made a fortune selling all my properties at the height, I got that one right as well.

3) Start of 2010 I predicted that by the end of the year we would be in a property crash again, well blow me down that happened as well.

As my crystal ball is stuck up your a*se, maybe you should rub your a*se and you too might correctly predict something!!!

And by the way, Thatcher raised rates in a recession and it fixed the economy, so it's not stupid, it works. Low rates are here to help the financial markets, not you and me, don't be stupid and believe the propaganda.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you being really ignorant and saying that predictions shouldn't be mentioned here unless they are guaranteed (or at least please you).

Oh dear, I must have left my crystal ball up your a*se,

Lets see my predictions, as I don't just predict on economic stats, I also use political and social motivation:

1) In 2007 I predicted that banks would crash, they did (people actually called me mad for this one).

2) In 2007 I predicted the property crash and made a fortune selling all my properties at the height, I got that one right as well.

3) Start of 2010 I predicted that by the end of the year we would be in a property crash again, well blow me down that happened as well.

As my crystal ball is stuck up your a*se, maybe you should rub your a*se and you too might correctly predict something!!!

And by the way, Thatcher raised rates in a recession and it fixed the economy, so it's not stupid, it works. Low rates are here to help the financial markets, not you and me, don't be stupid and believe the propaganda.

Seeing as you joined here in 2008 where did you claim these 2007 predictions with links please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spp

When they have enough suckers borrowing again

or

When it's too late.

Anyone who thinks we'll get any kind of real deflation before a whole lot more inflation is nuts!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this report is a load of shit.

Rates rising in Feb. from 0.5% to what.... 0.75%?

It's like me saying that next Spring house prices will probably be flat on what they are now, or maybe up a little or maybe down a little.

What I always get pissed off by is how these people make predictions.

If they were so sure of this Feb rates rise, they would put some money behind it to make a mint.

As I read the market, LIBOR did a good job of dictating interest rates, until LIBOR got out of control and rates were slashed.

I expect IRs to be low/negligible (for those with good discount rate mortages) for the next 5 years.

How the market moves in growing economies in the East/S.America etc... that's a more interesting story - the West is dead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this report is a load of shit.

Rates rising in Feb. from 0.5% to what.... 0.75%?

It's like me saying that next Spring house prices will probably be flat on what they are now, or maybe up a little or maybe down a little.

What I always get pissed off by is how these people make predictions.

If they were so sure of this Feb rates rise, they would put some money behind it to make a mint.

As I read the market, LIBOR did a good job of dictating interest rates, until LIBOR got out of control and rates were slashed.

I expect IRs to be low/negligible (for those with good discount rate mortages) for the next 5 years.

How the market moves in growing economies in the East/S.America etc... that's a more interesting story - the West is dead.

There is no report it is just poster jplevene view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeing as you joined here in 2008 where did you claim these 2007 predictions with links please.

Joined before, changed computer and lost my user name and password.

Another gripe of mine, I have an encyclopaedia in my head of the millions of user names and passwords I need from internet to banking to London parking to help lines to urhhhh. Just tried to pay by phone parking today in Westminster today and passwords or last 4 digits of credit card don't even work, 10 minutes just to pay for parking!!!!

By the way, this is a discussion forum, anyone else offering when they think rates will rise and why.

My reason as to beleiving the rate rise will be in February is the BOE is being political as it would be able to hide the effects of a rate rise and not get the blame for any consequences.

Maybe I am too cynical, saying that BOE and many politicians put themselves and their friends before us, but I have always expected the worse and never been disappointed. A rate rise is long overdue, inflation is pretty bad and going to get worse (cotton prices, food shortage from Russia, VAT rises, etc), doing a rise in the last 18 months would have caused a crash and put us where we are now, looking really bad on the BOE.

As a thought, if we had the crash we are having now 18 months ago, we would probably be starting a recovery now., but Brown had an election around the corner, lowered rates and borrowed more money, causing more problems for us but it was politically good for him at the time. Now you see where I'm going with this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.