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Mortgage Approval Vs Hp Change Chart, Boe Thinks Mew Is Good

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Interesting chart from BoE document. HP seemed to track loan approvals until recently where loan approvals rebound does not move price up much.

In the same document (BoE quaterly bulletin), BoE still believe this fairly tale... House is not really just for living in but for MEWing to spend in the economy...

The housing market plays an important role in the macroeconomy. Movements in house prices influence the

amount of equity that people can withdraw from their homes to finance spending (Benito et al (2006)). And changes in

house prices and housing market turnover influence both investment in the housing stock (Corder and Roberts (2008))

and durables spending (Benito and Wood (2005)). Developments in the housing market also have important

implications for financial stability through the financial sector’s exposures (Bank of England (2010)).

And so that explains why BoE does what it does..

and

We find that output, consumption, investment and capacity utilisation all fall in response to rises in interest rates and that the responses of all these variables are ‘hump shaped’ with the peak response of output occurring five quarters after the initial rise in rates.

Inflation rises on impact before falling to a trough two years after the initial rise in rates. The effect on inflation dies out

after three years. Changes in interest rates have little effect on the relative price of capital and real wages. Productivity

responds quickly, suggesting that movements in employment occur with a lag relative to movements in output.

In terms of the models, we find that both are able to explain

So inflation only falls after 2 years of initial rise in rates and the rise in rates cease to work after 3 years.

Edited by easybetman

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Interesting chart from BoE document. HP seemed to track loan approvals until recently where loan approvals rebound does not move price up much.

In the same document (BoE quaterly bulletin), BoE still believe this fairly tale... House is not really just for living in but for MEWing to spend in the economy...

And so that explains why BoE does what it does..

But, but, your house is your pension! You shouldn't be spending it now!

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All you need is a Kalman estimate, some clever jiggery pokery and pretty soon you'll have your own website:

http://www.housepric...rice_predictor/

"Figure 2. House price inflation HPI. Comparison of the Halifax seasonally adjusted HPI (monthly series, equivalent annualised) and the Kalman estimate based on the BoE approvals data. This series leads the YoY figures by about six months. "

kyoy_aug2010.png

Sorry...don't quite get you... why do i want a website ?

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Sorry..forgot to upload chart.

Very interesting to see the huge "detachment" in this past year or so, with banks lending going down, but HP still going up.

That must mean that expectations from cash/large deposit buyers lagged behind banks' expectations or capacity to lend.

But the 2 curves are converging again now, and below the 0% line.

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Sorry..forgot to upload chart.

I think the Point HotAir is making is the BOE chart is incredibly similar to a long running HPCers Chart. Spline runs the linked website, which looks like it has been copied (badly) by the BOE. Even the colours on the BOE Chart and similar to splines. The suggestion is you (and the BOE) behind the curve, spline discovered this link and plenty of others 3->5 years ago. Edited by AteMoose

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I think the Point HotAir is making is the BOE chart is incredibly similar to a long running HPCers Chart. Spline runs the linked website, which looks like it has been copied (badly) by the BOE. Even the colours on the BOE Chart and similar to splines...

Thanks Atemoose. BoE copies Spline chart... cool..

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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