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Breaking News Mortgages Advances Fall 14%

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Booyaka!

ali+g+sunglasses.jpg

I was hoping for more hungry bear pictures :D

Full article from CML if your not able to click the link

Gross mortgage lending declined to an estimated £11.4 billion in August, down 14% from £13.3 billion in July and 6% from £12.1 billion in August 2009, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

This is the lowest August total since 2000 (£11.1 billion). Lending volumes are likely to remain below last year’s level in the coming months as activity was buoyed by the upcoming end of the stamp duty holiday in the last few months of 2009.

In today’s market commentary, CML chief economist Bob Pannell commented:

“We face the prospect of a difficult second half of the year. However, the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates at record lows for longer to support the economy. This will continue to alleviate payment pressures for many borrowers.”

.

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The Council of Mortgage Lenders does not publish statistics for mortgage approvals. The data in our monthly Regulated Mortgage Survey and gross lending press releases relate to mortgage advances only.

so they say.

so how come there was a, IIRC, a 3000 or so adjustment in recent figures for advances from a year ago? last years figure was adjusted down.

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The Council of Mortgage Lenders does not publish statistics for mortgage approvals. The data in our monthly Regulated Mortgage Survey and gross lending press releases relate to mortgage advances only.

so they say.

so how come there was a, IIRC, a 3000 or so adjustment in recent figures for advances from a year ago? last years figure was adjusted down.

LOL, well connected, maybe the lenders changed their press releases. :ph34r:

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Has the World Cup finished yet?

Because of climate change, people are worried about snow at this time of year so aren't leaving the house as much...

Or was it the excitement of the upcoming papal visit stopped people looking at houses?

Tricky one...

Edited by What's'isname

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I just had a look at last August's press release and the figure was £12.6 bn versus the figure now for August 2009 of £12.1 bn. That is a huge adjustment down over time. It allows them to report 'surprisingly high' figures at the time but lower falls now. Spooky.

If you took the initial estimated figures as the correct one to compare like-for-like, the reduction would not be down 6% year on year but nearly 10%.

http://www.cml.org.u...edia/press/2401

its even more odd as a bank has to balance its books TO THE PENNY every day.

Im sure guessing the loans they made is 100% out of the question.

and the adjustment is always DOWN...never UP...as you would expect if mistakes had occured you would expect up and down.

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“We face the prospect of a difficult second half of the year. However, the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates at record lows for longer to support the economy. This will continue to alleviate payment pressures for many borrowers.”

What's that got to do with the price of eggs? How does not lending to (presumably) new mortgage applicants connect to low interest rates for people who already have mortgages. In other news, lack of new cancer treatments unlikely to impact on people who are already dead...

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The Council of Mortgage Lenders does not publish statistics for mortgage approvals. The data in our monthly Regulated Mortgage Survey and gross lending press releases relate to mortgage advances only.

so they say.

so how come there was a, IIRC, a 3000 or so adjustment in recent figures for advances from a year ago? last years figure was adjusted down.

The figures when they are initially released are an estimate based on responses from lenders who typically represent 80% of the volume see the footnotes from the CML press release spreadsheet below:

"est=estimated

Source: CML Research, Bank of England

1. Total gross lending gives the total value of loans secured on dwellings that are newly advanced by institutions in the period. All the figures were sourced from the Bank of England except the estimate for the most current month.

2. The CML estimates of gross lending for the latest month were based on the lending figures provided by a sample of lenders that represent around 80% of the mortgage market. The aggregate of these figures were scaled up to represent the whole market."

2. would also imply that the CML figures are NOT CML figures but a guestimate of BoE VTVC (based on CML members and some others) which is replaced by the total market BoE figure (VTVC?) after a month, hence the changes.

If you assumed the CML figures were just loans form CML members then it might lead you to conclude that the total mortgage lending was rather bigger than it actually is ;)

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What's that got to do with the price of eggs? How does not lending to (presumably) new mortgage applicants connect to low interest rates for people who already have mortgages. In other news, lack of new cancer treatments unlikely to impact on people who are already dead...

I think the logic from their perspective is: by keeping interest rates low, people might be tempted to buy now. The bull argument continuing that it's not that house prices are too high, it's just that not enough cheap 100% mortgages are being made available to ensure that FTB's are made to feel confident enough to enter the market. Or some other similar 8ollox.

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I think the logic from their perspective is: by keeping interest rates low, people might be tempted to buy now. The bull argument continuing that it's not that house prices are too high, it's just that not enough cheap 100% mortgages are being made available to ensure that FTB's are made to feel confident enough to enter the market. Or some other similar 8ollox.

...saving a deposit at the moment is the equivalent of getting a high credit interest rate...by the time you have saved 10% it will be the same as doubling your money or more...no rush sit back save and enjoy the show. ;)

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When you consider how little prices have fallen since peak, that must be a big drop in volume.

And some juicy quotes from the guardian too

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/sep/20/mortgage-lending-august-low

CML chief economist, Bob Pannell, said: "We face the prospect of a difficult second half of the year. While activity is at higher levels than seen in the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009, it is still exceptionally low on any historic comparison.

Pannell said the financial sector is now approaching the point where institutions will have to begin repaying government-supported funding put in place at the height of the crisis, which would further reduce the amount of credit made available by institutions.

Now I wonder what that will do for prices ;)

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Has the World Cup finished yet?

The Premier League has only just started though... plus the Euro qualifiers etc.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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