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The Masked Tulip

Report Warns Of A House Price Crash

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http://www.mortgagerates.org.uk/news/report-warns-of-a-house-price-crash/

Andrew Goodwin, a senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: “The housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low. These figures tend to be well correlated with prices and they point to falling prices over the second half of this year, particularly now that the supply shortages of the early part of the year have eased.”

Howard Archer, an economist said: “It is hard at this stage to be optimistic about house prices in 2011 as the fiscal squeeze will increasingly kick in, which will hit people’s pockets and lead to serious job losses in the public sector.”

The Bank of England is looking to regulate the mortgage market by capping borrowing to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis that nearly brought the industry to its knees. The plans will force borrowers to have at least a 10 to 25 percent deposit in place to be able to apply for a mortgage. Although this may well protect the banks and building societies it will strangle the hosuing market as finance will dry up for first time buyers as they will not be able to raise the deposits requires given that average house prices are well over £150,000.

Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, said: “The news on the UK housing market doesn’t get any better … The best that can be said is that approvals didn’t fall further.”

The figures showed that the number of mortgage approvals were around 48,500 in June while they increased slightly in July to 48,722 .

Alan Clarke, economist at LBNP Paribas, said: “Mortgage approvals moved sideways on the month, which is essentially what has been happening all year … It suggests housing is going nowhere fast.”

The news is concerning to home owners who bought their houses at the height of the property boom a few years ago. Mortgagerates.org.uk reported that buy to let landlords would have to wait up to four years before they would come out of negative equity and be able to recover what they paid, the new report shows that this may be the same for normal home owners too.

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http://www.mortgagerates.org.uk/news/report-warns-of-a-house-price-crash/

Andrew Goodwin, a senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: “The housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low. These figures tend to be well correlated with prices and they point to falling prices over the second half of this year, particularly now that the supply shortages of the early part of the year have eased.”

Howard Archer, an economist said: “It is hard at this stage to be optimistic about house prices in 2011 as the fiscal squeeze will increasingly kick in, which will hit people’s pockets and lead to serious job losses in the public sector.”

The Bank of England is looking to regulate the mortgage market by capping borrowing to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis that nearly brought the industry to its knees. The plans will force borrowers to have at least a 10 to 25 percent deposit in place to be able to apply for a mortgage. Although this may well protect the banks and building societies it will strangle the hosuing market as finance will dry up for first time buyers as they will not be able to raise the deposits requires given that average house prices are well over £150,000.

Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, said: “The news on the UK housing market doesn’t get any better … The best that can be said is that approvals didn’t fall further.”

The figures showed that the number of mortgage approvals were around 48,500 in June while they increased slightly in July to 48,722 .

Alan Clarke, economist at LBNP Paribas, said: “Mortgage approvals moved sideways on the month, which is essentially what has been happening all year … It suggests housing is going nowhere fast.”

The news is concerning to home owners who bought their houses at the height of the property boom a few years ago. Mortgagerates.org.uk reported that buy to let landlords would have to wait up to four years before they would come out of negative equity and be able to recover what they paid, the new report shows that this may be the same for normal home owners too.

Came back from holiday yesterday to find two 'Move To' local property mags shoved through the letterbox. It's been months since we've had one of these.

Not to mention a message from an EA I last spoke to at least 3 months ago - am I still looking? Lots of fantastic property coming on to the market - will I please give him a call asap?

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My local sample in NW Kent of what were once FTB type houses shows 171 for sale 67 at reduced prices. Equivelent figures for January this year are 94 and 20. That is price crash territory.

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Such as?

So far:

300yr Record low base rates, many mortgages locked to this

Special Liquidity Scheme

Credit Guarantee Scheme

Discount Window Facility, now accepting MBS

To follow:

Nationalisation of the mortgage market (think that's silly? US is already 90% down this path)

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I just can't see house prices going anywhere for many. many years. Though, I sill see BOE finding ever inventive ways of keeping the prices high.

what inventive ways have the BoE used to date?....Id like to know

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So far:

300yr Record low base rates, many mortgages locked to this

Special Liquidity Scheme

Credit Guarantee Scheme

Discount Window Facility, now accepting MBS

To follow:

Nationalisation of the mortgage market (think that's silly? US is already 90% down this path)

base rates are not new mortgages.

SLS is to keep banks solvent..sorry...liquid

redit Guarantee...thought that was for business loans and was government based.

the last one...thats not new....and is for the same reason as the SLS.

to follow: yeah fannie and freddie are a big success....billions in handouts to keep them "liquid"...its way too late in the game for the "team" to set one up here.

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An EA firm not local to Swansea has just stuck 15 'no-chain' townhouses and luxury flats up online in 'Marina Villas' which is in Swansea Marina and on a prime sea-front location.

All the guff of recent years has been that these flats and townhouses were selling like hot-cakes.

I have heard of numerous stories of people already living in the area wishing to sell up so it is interesting, to me anyhow, that this 'job lot' of no-chain properties has just appeared online - I think it is a sign of the dying housing market locally and ties in with what an English Couple told me last week about trying to sell a similar townhouse in the marina but having had not a single viewer.

With so many no-chain properties for sale around there now what chance do people who are trying to sell but already live there have? Very little I guess.

I wonder if the above are ones which have never sold or ones which, perhaps, have been repossessed. Or BTLs that never worked out? Ah, so many possibilities.

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An EA firm not local to Swansea has just stuck 15 'no-chain' townhouses and luxury flats up online in 'Marina Villas' which is in Swansea Marina and on a prime sea-front location.

All the guff of recent years has been that these flats and townhouses were selling like hot-cakes.

I have heard of numerous stories of people already living in the area wishing to sell up so it is interesting, to me anyhow, that this 'job lot' of no-chain properties has just appeared online - I think it is a sign of the dying housing market locally and ties in with what an English Couple told me last week about trying to sell a similar townhouse in the marina but having had not a single viewer.

With so many no-chain properties for sale around there now what chance do people who are trying to sell but already live there have? Very little I guess.

I wonder if the above are ones which have never sold or ones which, perhaps, have been repossessed. Or BTLs that never worked out? Ah, so many possibilities.

Do you have a link? Rightmove?

cheers,

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http://www.mortgager...se-price-crash/

Andrew Goodwin, a senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: "The housing market is heading for a double dip, with net mortgage lending pretty much flat and the number of mortgage approvals remaining very low. These figures tend to be well correlated with prices and they point to falling prices over the second half of this year, particularly now that the supply shortages of the early part of the year have eased."

Howard Archer, an economist said: "It is hard at this stage to be optimistic about house prices in 2011 as the fiscal squeeze will increasingly kick in, which will hit people's pockets and lead to serious job losses in the public sector."

The Bank of England is looking to regulate the mortgage market by capping borrowing to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis that nearly brought the industry to its knees. The plans will force borrowers to have at least a 10 to 25 percent deposit in place to be able to apply for a mortgage. Although this may well protect the banks and building societies it will strangle the hosuing market as finance will dry up for first time buyers as they will not be able to raise the deposits requires given that average house prices are well over £150,000.

Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, said: "The news on the UK housing market doesn't get any better … The best that can be said is that approvals didn't fall further."

The figures showed that the number of mortgage approvals were around 48,500 in June while they increased slightly in July to 48,722 .

Alan Clarke, economist at LBNP Paribas, said: "Mortgage approvals moved sideways on the month, which is essentially what has been happening all year … It suggests housing is going nowhere fast."

The news is concerning to home owners who bought their houses at the height of the property boom a few years ago. Mortgagerates.org.uk reported that buy to let landlords would have to wait up to four years before they would come out of negative equity and be able to recover what they paid, the new report shows that this may be the same for normal home owners too.

I have to say I admire your staying power. Is it just me that is punch drunk with all this data? Mortgage approvals up/down/sideways, FTBs no longer in the market/doesn't matter, asking prices up/down/sideways, transaction volumes up/down/sideways, rents up/down/sideways, BTL piling in / piling out / sitting tight / taking advantage / going broke / putting rents up and down, Nationwide say this, Halifax say that, HMRC say the other ....

Meanwhile, in my area, the party seems to go on. Yes, prices are moving down - we've seen 25k come off 475k properties and then vendors either sticking to their guns or maybe dropping another 10k for proceedable buyers. Price drops on the sites that show them tend to be in the region of 2% - 4%.

BUT, people are STILL investing in property. Extensions / renovations are still being done, sites are being cleared and new houses are being built. There are half a dozen sites near me where houses are being bulldozed and replaced with two houses, or one much bigger house. Admittedly they are no longer knocking them down and putting 8 flats up - but there is still plenty of activity.

Meanwhile, rents are suddenly astronomical.

It's enough to drive you nuts.

Edited by Let's get it right

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Do you have a link? Rightmove?

cheers,

I just found them by doing a search on Primelocation for no chain properties posted in the past 7 days within 5 miles of postcode SA2.

This link is the above search result and if you scroll through it you have several townhouses for about 300K and then a bit further down several flats for about 200K.

I remember looking at this development when it was being built and it was the usual guff about most of them already sold, BTLers, etc, etc, so it is very interesting that so many are no-chain. I have seen others in the same development on sale with other EAs so, all in all, quite a lot.

Ah, here is a link to all of them:

http://www.primelocation.com/new-homes/development/dev/7039

http://www.primelocation.com/chain-free-property/search/c/gbp/l/SA2%20/orderby/PriceLowDESC/ps/10/p/pocsa2%20/t/houseandflat/rx/5/sr/s/showResultsType/ShowMapWithListings/sp/7d/srx/1/rxMinLat/51.602922005247763/rxMaxLat/51.624493147752233/rxMinLng/-4.113097803467029/rxMaxLng/-3.973870933272971/ls/false/s/1/

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I just found them by doing a search on Primelocation for no chain properties posted in the past 7 days within 5 miles of postcode SA2.

This link is the above search result and if you scroll through it you have several townhouses for about 300K and then a bit further down several flats for about 200K.

I remember looking at this development when it was being built and it was the usual guff about most of them already sold, BTLers, etc, etc, so it is very interesting that so many are no-chain. I have seen others in the same development on sale with other EAs so, all in all, quite a lot.

Ah, here is a link to all of them:

http://www.primelocation.com/new-homes/development/dev/7039

http://www.primelocation.com/chain-free-property/search/c/gbp/l/SA2%20/orderby/PriceLowDESC/ps/10/p/pocsa2%20/t/houseandflat/rx/5/sr/s/showResultsType/ShowMapWithListings/sp/7d/srx/1/rxMinLat/51.602922005247763/rxMaxLat/51.624493147752233/rxMinLng/-4.113097803467029/rxMaxLng/-3.973870933272971/ls/false/s/1/

Thanks.

Interesting. Very expensive still, but at least it looks like these houses are reasonably spacious. About 200 sq m., or around 2,000 sq. ft, apparently, according to this brochure: http://media.primelocation.com/FVGGR/TYHJ/7039/BROCH_01.PDF If these are the houses priced at £400k then they are asking for some £2k/sq.m. Building costs are usually below £1k/sq.m., plus the building plot. Perhaps not long now for prices to get down to cost. A few years? 10-20% more?

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Thanks.

Interesting. Very expensive still, but at least it looks like these houses are reasonably spacious. About 200 sq m., or around 2,000 sq. ft, apparently, according to this brochure: http://media.primelocation.com/FVGGR/TYHJ/7039/BROCH_01.PDF If these are the houses priced at £400k then they are asking for some £2k/sq.m. Building costs are usually below £1k/sq.m., plus the building plot. Perhaps not long now for prices to get down to cost. A few years? 10-20% more?

Yes, those are the ones.

I have heard rumours on the grapevine of people on a similar development wishing to get out because, allegedly, of:

1. Noise - partly because there is a huge car-park around which the town-houses & flats are builts, lots of BTLs, and also noise from neighbours such as, in some cases allegedly, students renting out from BTLs.

2. Lack of green space despite being next to the sea.

3. Problems with water leakage.

Similar townhouses were sold for circa 250K according to House prices.

I had a look at them back then and was considering buying one but I did not like the feel of them as they felt, to me personally, more akin to living in a hotel room than a home.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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An EA firm not local to Swansea has just stuck 15 'no-chain' townhouses and luxury flats up online in 'Marina Villas' which is in Swansea Marina and on a prime sea-front location.

All the guff of recent years has been that these flats and townhouses were selling like hot-cakes.

I have heard of numerous stories of people already living in the area wishing to sell up so it is interesting, to me anyhow, that this 'job lot' of no-chain properties has just appeared online - I think it is a sign of the dying housing market locally and ties in with what an English Couple told me last week about trying to sell a similar townhouse in the marina but having had not a single viewer.

With so many no-chain properties for sale around there now what chance do people who are trying to sell but already live there have? Very little I guess.

I wonder if the above are ones which have never sold or ones which, perhaps, have been repossessed. Or BTLs that never worked out? Ah, so many possibilities.

Recently I had a stroll round what I presume is a very similar development in Penarth. First impessions - attractive in a modern prefab sort of way, however walking round (carefully avoiding all the private acess alleyways, having already negotiated the speed bump hell access in the first place) the overall effect was somewhat less appealing than would otherwise be the case. Little room round each place - they might as well all have been flats and a general 'empty' and 'soul-less' feel about it, like a grand version of warden controlled residential accommodation where 2/3 of the occupants were already departed. Certainly didn't rock my boat.

Is it just me or are other marina developments like this - just what is the mix of age-groups, permanent dwellers, second home / pied a mere, just stright out propoerty speculation in these places as I suspect the real appeal and saleabiity of these places could be somewhat limited.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Recently I had a stroll round what I presume is a very similar development in Penarth. First impessions - attractive in a modern prefab sort of way, however walking round (carefully avoiding all the private acess alleyways, having already negotiated the speed bump hell access in the first place) the overall effect was somewhat less appealing than would otherwise be the case. Little room round each place - they might as well all have been flats and a general 'empty' and 'soul-less' feel about it, like a grand version of warden controlled residential accommodation where 2/3 of the occupants were already departed. Certainly didn't rock my boat.

Is it just me or are other marina developments like this - just what is the mix of age-groups, permanent dwellers, second home / pied a mere, just stright out propoerty speculation in these places as I suspect the real appeal and saleabiity of these places could be somewhat limited.

That was more of less my thoughts re the above Swansea Marina stuff. First glance you are kind of wowed but when you step back you see numerous pitfalls - one road in/out, speed bumps, too densely packed, worries about build quality IMPO, too many properties seemingly bought as BTLs so hence a constant changing residency, lack of green spaces, kitchens in some were on first floor but living space was on ground floor so constant up and down stairs, etc, etc, limited parking.

I was just cycling past Swansea marina and, as many in Swansea have commented, you do worry about such places becoming future slums.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Both the above are in EA/Property/Mortage type sites so the sort of stuff that is read, I assume, by EAs and mortgage advsiers, etc.

Times they are a changing.

Yes indeed. Times are changing, and quick, if big VI's like these people, are reporting such bearish articles.

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That was more of less my thoughts re the above Swansea Marina stuff. First glance you are kind of wowed but when you step back you see numerous pitfalls - one road in/out, speed bumps, too densely packed, worries about build quality IMPO.

What I've never understood about post war developments is this obsession with cul-de-sacs and wavy roads.

I'm sure traditional streets/grid systems would be much more appropriate and would help ease congesion. Some places have a never ending stream of traiifc queuing up to get out of a single junction during rush hour.

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Recently I had a stroll round what I presume is a very similar development in Penarth.

Is it just me or are other marina developments like this - just what is the mix of age-groups, permanent dwellers, second home / pied a mere, just stright out propoerty speculation in these places as I suspect the real appeal and saleabiity of these places could be somewhat limited.

Recently I had a look round this deveopement of 12 flats and 3 penthouses on Porthcawl seafront.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17839249.html

They originally went up for sale in July 2008.

The agent told us that the penhouses sold quickly, even though they were over half a million.

There are now still 3 ground floor appartments left for sale.

According to my property bee, they were originally asking £325,000 to £350,000, and are now asking £250,000. The agent said they would easily now look at offers at least 10% below that £250,000 asking price. I bet those who paid full asking price a year or two ago are not too pleased now.

He reckoned all the owners except one, were over 50 years old, and 50% of the owners were Londoners who had bought them as second homes.

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Recently I had a look round this deveopement of 12 flats and 3 penthouses on Porthcawl seafront.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17839249.html

Less than 500 yards along the road, still on the market for £1,750,000

Property Bee History

date event

21 December 2008 * Price found: £1,750,000 Title found: Eclipse,33 Sanderling Way,Porthcawl,Mid Glamorgan

Not tempted to look around the 'green bottle bank build' on the old Esplanade hotel site. :D

Estate agents informed friends of ours that the 2 bedrooms, all sold off plan way above £200,00 grand ?

Ugly building

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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