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libitina

Probably Ot, But Why Has The Dow Jones

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141.87 points up.

Why is this? (In simple stooooopid terms please)

Is it the thought of all the regeneration in NO? Are they not bothered by oil prices? Or has some superduper new company been floated today?

Is it likely to drop tomorrow as far as it's risen today?

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Various reasons:

impact of expensive petroleum on economy means interest rate rises may be slower than forecast;

rebuild of NO is +ve for economy;

they had a holiday yesterday and people need to make up for a non-trading day.

Is it likely to fall again 2mrw or the coming days - personal view, quite possibly.

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141.87 points up.

Why is this? (In simple stooooopid terms please)

Is it the thought of all the regeneration in NO? Are they not bothered by oil prices? Or has some superduper new company been floated today?

Is it likely to drop tomorrow as far as it's risen today?

many of the conspiracy theorists would say that a major "terrorist attack" may be imminent if there has been a lot of sudden upward activity. :blink::blink::blink:

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If you strip out the energy sector, the US is actually 10% down on the year. The spiking of the oil price has crystalised fears and is allowing a wider relief rally (90% of S&P500 stocks were up today as oil retreated).

But here's the main point. NYSE specialist short sales are hitting new lows. These are THE smart money. It is dangerous to vote against them (wallstreetcourier).

(see thumbnail1)

Readers of Bulkowski will also note that the s&p500 has formed a rounding top in the last month. 80% of the time these result in consolidation of the prevailing trend (as opposed to reversal).

However, the s&p500 put /call ratio ( vtoreport ) suggests options players are too optimistic, so that is likely to weigh (see thumbnail2)

The retreating $ vs £ is constraining the UK.

At the end of the day "reasons" are irrelevant. Market mood as described above is much more important. Are high interest rates good or bad for a market, fo rinstance? High rates imply high growth going forward: is that really bad for stocks? Like I say, interpretation of facts on the ground depends on the mood.

shortsales.JPG

putcall.JPG

post-141-1126086315_thumb.jpg

post-141-1126086335_thumb.jpg

Edited by Sledgehead

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141.87 points up.

Why is this? (In simple stooooopid terms please)

Is it the thought of all the regeneration in NO? Are they not bothered by oil prices? Or has some superduper new company been floated today?

Is it likely to drop tomorrow as far as it's risen today?

I think it's got a lot to do with the belief that the US Federal Reserve will now stop raising interest rates, whereas before it was universally accepted that there would be a further .25% increase at the next meeting (in a fortnight), with the majority of market players believing there would be further rises before the end of the year.

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Crude oil has gone down a bit which the market generally thinks to be a good thing.

What's being overlooked. There's now plenty of crude simply because the refineries are the bottleneck especially with so much production having been lost in the US.

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Guest Riser

From the finance thread: Here's an interesting read for anyone wondering why the Dow has been going up rather than down in response to Katrina

The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam

Most people probably assume that the U.S. stock market is free of government interference. It is acknowledged that the bond and currency markets are influenced by policy-makers, but equities are considered different territory altogether. Current mythology holds that share prices rise and fall on the basis of market forces alone.

Such sentiments appear to be seriously mistaken. A thorough examination of published information strongly suggests that since the October 1987 crash, the U.S. government has periodically intervened to prevent another destabilizing stock market fall. And as official rhetoric continues to toe the free market line, manipulation has become increasingly apparent. Some of these interventions have apparently occurred with the active participation of selected investment banks and brokerage houses. In this regard, evidence from credible sources, including a former top adviser to President Clinton, appears to confirm the existence of a so-called “Plunge Protection Team” (PPT). This group is not simply the figment of creative imaginations, and we are not alone in this conclusion. Indeed, Todd Stein and Steven McIntyre of the Texas Hedge Report stated in 2004 that, “Almost every floor trader on the NYSE, NYMEX, CBOT and CME will admit to having seen the PPT in action in one form or another over the years.” Much of the information is evidence of intent to intervene, rather than proof of manipulative activities themselves. This amounts to a distinction without a significant difference. That the government has given such serious consideration to supporting the stock market demonstrates its willingness to cross an important line, violating the traditional American belief in unfettered markets. It underscores the notion that the health and stability of the market represents an integral part of national security, thereby justifying government action when financial peril looms.

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Rallies like yesterday are engineered to lure sheeple in the market.

This is a major long term distribution top. Dividend yields and P/E ratios are still at bubble level and the market will eventually mean revert. When it does, most will be ruined.

Forget short term noise. Look at the fundamentals, which are dreadful. Remember that the DOW is still lower than in 2000 while the dollar has dropped by more than 30% since.

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It's market noise. Ignore it.  Nobody knows why. Anybody claiming to know why is pretending.

The US markets are overvalued by any measure and will fall.  The thing is, nobody knows when.  If I did, I would be a rich man.

Indian SM up 50% in last 12m!

Just had a staement from a unit trust company - up 18% since January!

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Guest Enzo
Rallies like yesterday are engineered to lure sheeple in the market. 

This is a major long term distribution top.  Dividend yields and P/E ratios are still at bubble level and the market will eventually mean revert.    When it does, most will be ruined.

Forget short term noise.  Look at the fundamentals, which are dreadful.  Remember that the DOW is still lower than in 2000 while the dollar has dropped by more than 30% since.

Take a few paces back. Look at the Dow in context. 100-200 points up or down on any day really means nothing, as cgnao has pointed out

ScreenShot084.gif

post-2435-1126100698_thumb.jpg

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Memebers may be interested in the close inverse-correlation between the s500 and th eoil price as shown in the attachment below.

This also explains why the UK has had less volatility as BP tends to act as an oil price hedge for intraday movements of the ftse.

PS: I love all this stuff about "one day doesn't matter" and "it's just noise".

180 points of ftse noise over the past month for me guys... now what doesn't matter?

Furthermore people should realsie that market movements obey natural laws as they are determined by humans, not by equations. That means they have fractal behaviour. As such getting a feel for intra week and intraday movements gives you a feel for intra month, intra year and intra decade movements. Hardly noise.

Second attachment is a chart of the s&p500 over the past couple of months showing a rounding top, which, in a study by Bulkowski was shown to break-UP 80% of the time.. If you study "noise" often enough you'll see this repeated again and again.

oil_s500.JPG

rounding_top.JPG

post-141-1126106538_thumb.jpg

post-141-1126107229_thumb.jpg

Edited by Sledgehead

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Guest Enzo
PS: I love all this stuff about "one day doesn't matter" and "it's just noise".

180 points of ftse noise over the past month for me guys... now what doesn't matter?

Furthermore people should realsie that market movements obey natural laws as they are determined by humans, not by equations. That means they have fractal behaviour. As such getting a feel for intra week and intraday movements gives you a feel for intra month, intra year and intra decade movements. Hardly noise.

You are obviously a trader sledgehead. So am I. Of course it means something to you and me....

Well I couldn't actually give a fat rats about the Dow to be truthful...other fish to fry.

Its all context. In the context of libitina's initial enqiry, what the Dow did on Tuesday is utterly meaningless, fractals considered or not. I doubt whether libi even knows what a fractal is! (that's not meant as an insult to libi either)

BTW congratulations on your 180 points, I'll send you a gold star. I like to substantiate my claims when I make them public.

Cheers

ScreenShot085.gif

post-2435-1126108309_thumb.jpg

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Guest magnoliawalls

Thanks Riser

It had been bothering me that the Dow seemed to be going up on bad and good news. Your link does not make me feel any happier :(

Sledgehead - thanks also, I have much to learn!

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BTW congratulations on your 180 points, I'll send you a gold star. I like to substantiate my claims when I make them public.

Cheers

Well, the only proof I'd accept is posted trades in realtime.

Back in Sep last year I posted a couple of trades in this thread in real time. Last time I do that! Never had so much abuse in my life! The trades made 71pts. Nobody wanted to know.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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