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Lord Lister

59% Drop In House Prices

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Well, based on my old house and a bit of giggery pokery with the fugures, but a genuine calculation none the less.

I sold my house for £147000 in 2007, I think it would sell for around 135000 based on others in the are selling now. Here comes the giggery pokery :-) That means I sold my house for 420 oz gold in 2007, it would now cost 172 oz gold, thats a 59 % decrease in price.

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Well, based on my old house and a bit of giggery pokery with the fugures, but a genuine calculation none the less.

I sold my house for £147000 in 2007, I think it would sell for around 135000 based on others in the are selling now. Here comes the giggery pokery :-) That means I sold my house for 420 oz gold in 2007, it would now cost 172 oz gold, thats a 59 % decrease in price.

so what?

I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 14,200 barrels of oil @ $11.90 when it were £0.59 per dollar. In september 2008 I bought the house back for £250,000 when oi was at $147 and the pound was at $2.10 - which cost me 3571 barrels of oil. In other words house prices dropped 75% from 1998 to 2008.

... or .... I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 10 flat panel plasma TVs costing £10,000. I bought my house back for £250,000 in 2008, which means I had to sell 312 flat panel plasma TVs at £800 each. OH no, that means house prices went up 3120% from 1998 to 2008.

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so what?

I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 14,200 barrels of oil @ $11.90 when it were £0.59 per dollar. In september 2008 I bought the house back for £250,000 when oi was at $147 and the pound was at $2.10 - which cost me 3571 barrels of oil. In other words house prices dropped 75% from 1998 to 2008.

That would have been a sweet deal, trouble is 14,200 barrels take up a bit more space around the house than a few hundred ounces of gold dont they?

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Well, based on my old house and a bit of giggery pokery with the fugures, but a genuine calculation none the less.

I sold my house for £147000 in 2007, I think it would sell for around 135000 based on others in the are selling now. Here comes the giggery pokery :-) That means I sold my house for 420 oz gold in 2007, it would now cost 172 oz gold, thats a 59 % decrease in price.

Don't care.

I get paid in sterling, my deposit is saved in sterling, all purchases I make are sterling. I don't care what a house is worth in any asset, commodity or currency other than sterling.

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Interestingly in 1998 I would have got about 60000 for my house, which (and here's the interesting bit) would have been about 420 oz gold!

In gold my house didn't go up in value at all from 1998 to 2007! It must have all been currency devaluation hidden by cheap imports! now that is scarry, as cost push inflation is likely to end cheap imports very soon. Oh boy, hyper inflation here we come. brace yourselves.

so what?

I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 14,200 barrels of oil @ $11.90 when it were £0.59 per dollar. In september 2008 I bought the house back for £250,000 when oi was at $147 and the pound was at $2.10 - which cost me 3571 barrels of oil. In other words house prices dropped 75% from 1998 to 2008.

... or .... I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 10 flat panel plasma TVs costing £10,000. I bought my house back for £250,000 in 2008, which means I had to sell 312 flat panel plasma TVs at £800 each. OH no, that means house prices went up 3120% from 1998 to 2008.

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Don't care.

I get paid in sterling, my deposit is saved in sterling, all purchases I make are sterling. I don't care what a house is worth in any asset, commodity or currency other than sterling.

So I suppose all the daily goods, clothes and oil you buy are produced in this country and are denominated in sterling then? Sigh...

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Actually you don't, you get pain in £'s fiat. Long since gone is the sterling silver backing of the pound, now it is backed by a promise. Thankfully it's the promise of bankers and politicians so we'll be ok, fortunately they're an honest and trustworthy bunch who have all of our interests at heart. I would hate for that promise to be made by greedy self serving backstabbers with only their own short term gains and careers to think of. Phew! lucky for us eh!

Don't care.

I get paid in sterling, my deposit is saved in sterling, all purchases I make are sterling. I don't care what a house is worth in any asset, commodity or currency other than sterling.

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At first the OP seemed ridiculous, but gold has more a basis in reality than does paper and promises.

If gold itself weren't in such a bubble, I may consider moving into it.

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That would have been a sweet deal, trouble is 14,200 barrels take up a bit more space around the house than a few hundred ounces of gold dont they?

Rolling futures contracts don't take up much space though.

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Actually you don't, you get pain in £'s fiat. Long since gone is the sterling silver backing of the pound, now it is backed by a promise. Thankfully it's the promise of bankers and politicians so we'll be ok, fortunately they're an honest and trustworthy bunch who have all of our interests at heart. I would hate for that promise to be made by greedy self serving backstabbers with only their own short term gains and careers to think of. Phew! lucky for us eh!

Your signature says:

Demand = the desire and ability to pay, if you can't afford it, you have no demand, and when houses start falling in price, people will no longer have the desire

The second bit - that when houses start falling in price, people will no longer have the desire - seems to me to be just plain wrong. Sure, someone sitting outside the market with cash might wait - but in previous crashes people still buy in on the way down because they convince themselves that, either it doesn't matter (they need somewhere to live) or the market will turn around soon anyway.

One thing I have absolutely learnt over the last 7 years (since STRing) is that people's optimism about their future and about housing is enormous. No matter what headwinds are about, no matter how much bad news is about - look at the last 3 years - credit crunch - banking crisis - bank runs - armageddon (systemic banking crisis) averted by government bail outs - people still believe it will all pass, they'll keep their jobs for 25 years and everything will be tickety boo.

As a result, even in a falling market, people still buy.

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so what?

I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 14,200 barrels of oil @ $11.90 when it were £0.59 per dollar. In september 2008 I bought the house back for £250,000 when oi was at $147 and the pound was at $2.10 - which cost me 3571 barrels of oil. In other words house prices dropped 75% from 1998 to 2008.

... or .... I sold my house in 1998 for £100,000 and bought 10 flat panel plasma TVs costing £10,000. I bought my house back for £250,000 in 2008, which means I had to sell 312 flat panel plasma TVs at £800 each. OH no, that means house prices went up 3120% from 1998 to 2008.

I was going to buy oil, instead of gold, but the postage and packaging was way too expensive.

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Interestingly in 1998 I would have got about 60000 for my house, which (and here's the interesting bit) would have been about 420 oz gold!

In gold my house didn't go up in value at all from 1998 to 2007! It must have all been currency devaluation hidden by cheap imports! now that is scarry, as cost push inflation is likely to end cheap imports very soon. Oh boy, hyper inflation here we come. brace yourselves.

Yip, everytime I hear anyone mention the price of gold I think back to '81 or so. Was it the Iran Vs Kuwait thing that bumped it that time?

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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