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Jason

Mpc Interest Rates

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Ok, I'll do it this month!

Keep wishful thinking out of this, what do you think will actually happen to Interest rates this month?

I`m going for a repeat of a period in 1975.

They dropped by .25% one month and went back up by .25% the following month.

Unseen inflationary pressures I believe. <_<

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Do you think these two polls are a good idea for every month? Its interesting seeing the difference between what everyone expects, and what everyone wants.

P.s. thanks Webmaster for pinning these threads!

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I've gone for a 0.25% rise. Only because I think thats what the right move is.

I have a nagging feeling that it will be a hold, but I'm optimistic!

So maybe my vote was slightly wishful thinking!

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I think it would be far too embarassing to put it up straight away. Although, they could blame Katrina and maybe just get away with it

I agree; far too embarassing to put them straight back up. But if they do: don't blame it on the sunshine, don't blame it on the moonlight, don't blame it on the good times, blame it on the boogie!

(EDIT: typo)

Edited by busta move

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I'm with Charlie on this one - I suspect there may be an immediate U-Turn with an increase of 0.25%. Reason being that I suspect that inflation figures will be up again (2.7%?), and thanks to the VI spin that the house prices are on the up again there's an ongoing need to cool the housing market. The high street spending news is a mixed bag, but it's definitely not all doom and gloom.

As for being too embrarassing, hopefully the BoE are more concerned with the economy, and not how they'll look to a handful of people....erm, maybe? :blink:

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No change.

I think somebody else asked this before but I didn't see an answer. Are they allowed to vote on any change they want or is it narrowed down to a binary decision? If so will the vote be {0, +.25} or {0, -.25}?

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Guest Riser
I`m going for a repeat of a period in 1975.

They dropped by .25% one month and went back up by .25% the following month.

Unseen inflationary pressures I believe.  <_<

I suspect today’s Halifax figure of 1.6% may increase the possibility of a rise but I expect them to leave rates the same. Mervyn has already stated that he intends to manage expectations rather than shock the markets and we have heard nothing yet to suggest they will put rates up.

Browns puppets on the committee will ensure no increases until at least Christmas by which time I suspect Blair will be retired on health grounds and Brown's fall guy is in place.

This month they will dismiss the inflation figures probably 2.6% by saying they expect the increases in oil prices to be temporary. They will also ignore the possible higher prices due to EU import limits on Chinese goods and the extra costs of EU recycling WEEE legislation which has seen prices increase in Ireland.

No increase in the publics debt means no consumer spending means a property crash so they will do anything to prevent it. Problem now is that the public have become hyper sensitive to increasing rates due to the possible disastrous impact on their household finances, petrol over £1 doesn't help and tax rises in the next budget will be the last straw for many. Roll on negative HPI why are people so ready to accept 30% increases in one year but can't get their head around the fact that 30% falls are now just as possible.

Edited by Riser

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No change.

I think somebody else asked this before but I didn't see an answer. Are they allowed to vote on any change they want or is it narrowed down to a binary decision? If so will the vote be {0, +.25} or {0, -.25}?

They are allowed to vote for whatever they want. But the chief economist Charlie Bean, who kicks off the voting round of the meeting, normally frames the most likely choices I believe.

Check out some of the voting records in this table - in January 1999, one voted to maintain rates, seven voted to cut by .25%, and one voted to cut by .5%!

There's a description of the MPC process here:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...in/qb050105.pdf

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Guest growl
Do you think these two polls are a good idea for every month? Its interesting seeing the difference between what everyone expects, and what everyone wants.

Yes. Because there is a difference and sometimes people will vote for what they want(as if that will make a difference?) to what will really happen. The differing results are interesting.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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