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Jonathan Davis Gives It Out


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FP hides behind "I'm not going to discuss my private situation" when it is very relevant, explains much of his motivation in becoming a pundit in the first place and also provides the context for his apparent anger. He'd hardly be as shouty and angry if he was sitting on 2 or 3 million quid of home equity and his position is weakened by the "missed the boat" factor.

Agree. In many places, like in the Parliament, if people have an interest, they are supposed to declare it. He should do the same.

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Interesting bit of audio, thought it was a bit hypocritical of JD to accuse the RICS man of having a vested interest because he was also an estate agent, but then (on about 14 mins) refusing to comment on his on own VI when the presenter noted that he had STR'd in 2001.

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Reading the other threads, it looks like a number might buy after another 3-5% fall.

That may prove to be far too early, and it would be a bit tragic for those to buy, to afterwards see the market slide another 20-25%,

which I believe is a genuine possibility

Real or nominal?

Frankly, my HP forecast does change a bit, depending on data, news, and, being human, it's probably even a little influenced by mood (sorry). With this caveat, and FWIW, my HP forecast, today, is:

Real Prices:

A long term fall from current levels, in sterling, real prices, of 20 to 30%. But it could overshoot before stabilising. The timing of this overshoot will depend on political decisions (budget cuts, regulation, banks' "herding", etc.).

Nominal prices:

That will mostly depend on politics. In the 2 extremes:

(1) If the government manages to cut the annual deficit deep and fast, virtually eliminating it in this Parliament, then we will have reasonably low inflation, probably under 3%, and nominal prices would only come back to current levels in the longer term, say 10 years. But do to the overshooting, and the squeeze during this Parliament, in 3 or 4 years should be 10 to 20% lower than now.

(2) If the government DOES NOT manage to cut the annual deficit deep and fast, due to political opposition (Labour Party, Unions, and most importantly: the BBC), then we will have high inflation, probably over 5%, high interest rates, real prices would crash much faster, and even nominal prices would crash too. The overshooting would be violent. Nominal prices in the long term, say 10 years, would probably be higher than now. Big bust, big boom, again.

Reality will surely be somewhere in between. Difficult to know where though.

Any thought?

Edit to add: I think Sterling should fall 10-20% in the next few years - compared to a basket of currencies. And I think the Euro will not. Also meaning that Sterling should fall 10-20% in relation to the Euro as well.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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Sam in Belfast (last 2 minutes) was a star, too. "I blame estate agents for all of this..."

SN: ... house prices will "recover", it's just when?

Sam: at least 20 years

SN: I'll be dead by then!

Sam: well probably if you keep on eating, you will!

LOL! and for more context wrt the eating comment:

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  • 2 months later...

I take it back.

Stephen Nolan should be ashamed of himself.

Punters could not make stupid offers without corrupt bank lending practices.

They should be hit 50-50 for ANY future losses on homes as they underwrote the price rises and talked up the market for a fast buck!

It will also teach their executives and shareholders who have benefitted the most - a Big lesson!

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Punters could not make stupid offers without corrupt bank lending practices.

They should be hit 50-50 for ANY future losses on homes as they underwrote the price rises and talked up the market for a fast buck!

It will also teach their executives and shareholders who have benefitted the most - a Big lesson!

Yup! You tell'em! :rolleyes:

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