Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
chris25

Very Interesting Comment Left On Telegraph Article

Recommended Posts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8003966/Record-rise-in-UK-employment-as-more-students-take-part-time-jobs.html

It's the second most recommended comment:

We need to adjust to a low work economy because technology is replacing workers. The automation of work will accelerate until in 20 years few will work if they don’t want to. The evidence is all around us.

The US economy is growing but not creating work. In the UK part-time work has grown from 24% to 27% of jobs in a year, 8% are workless, we have a million NEETS and 600,000 too many public sector workers. Our biggest employer is retail but online sellers such as Amazon, Ocado, etc. are replacing shops. They have far lower costs, employ very few and are highly automated. Most shops are automating checkouts and experiments in automated shelf stacking are going well. Our second biggest employer is food processing but that too is automating rapidly. We are adjusted to agriculture, mining and manufacturing employing less than 5% of the workforce [down from 60% in 1953]. Honda recently announced the manufacture of a new car here which will create 200 jobs, a generation ago it would have been 50,000 jobs. All industry is affected. Professionals are finding more and more of their donkey work can be automated. Banking is virtually an IT business and is now rapidly shedding workers. Schools and universities have huge potential for automation. No work is immune.

Until recently, new technology shed workers but increased demand and profits making investment available to other firms compensated for the work lost. But this has now come to an end. Jobs lost by technology now exceed those created and as technological development is exponential the process will accelerate and change the world far more quickly than most realise. Within twenty years only a minority will work full time, more will work part time or intermittently but most will not work at all.

The few countries that can compete with low wage economies such as Japan, Germany and Israel do so by off-shoring, automation or moving upmarket. To compete we must do the same but it will not increase employment. We can only repatriate work from China and India if we replace workers with automation which is cheaper than people. Chinese industrial employment peaked some years ago whilst production continues to soar because of rapid automation. Low wage economies cannot reduce wages further but automation has no limit to how cheap it can be.

This point has not been lost on the world’s biggest firms. ABB, Honda, iRobot and others are investing billions in robots that will do a vast range of jobs in agriculture, security, portering in homes, factories, warehouses, hospitals, and offices over the next 20 years. The cost effectiveness of robots is increasing by 30% a year and there are no limits. A robot will be able to do anything a person can do and a lot more besides and even the manufacture of robots is automated.

Wealth will be created but mostly by machines not people. It is OK having wealth and goods without work but it is important that we do not have a few doing, controlling and having everything whilst the majority live on welfare. Governments must encourage part time work and casual work. All our needs will be met by a few days work a month so the government needs to make welfare contingent on doing something useful and tax only the wealthy.

There is a following comment which also made me think.

Something like "if machines replace people then who will buy the products?"

But then i thought; you hear lots about people on benefits supposedly living on the poverty line, but then discover they have some massive 52" flat screen TV at home kitted out with an XBOX 360 and Nintendo Wiis for all the kids.

Even nowdays a poor person can easily afford a mobile phone. You can buy a laptop now for £250 brand new, there was a time when a laptop below £1k was unheard of.

What I am trying to get at is that even people with no jobs can still feed the system.

Perhaps a lot of the problems with government debt and worldwide economic collapse is simply down to the fact that humans have made themselves obsolete. The reason the debt route was taken was to try and suppress joblessness by creating public sector jobs, creating the benefits culture and encouraging credit expansion so people spend money on non-essentials such as having their nails painted.

Now the phoney nail-painting economy has collapsed and the public sector has fallen apart, I now believe we are entering a new period of uber high joblessness, but not the SHTF crash that people are predicting.

Perhaps human society has to acknowledge this. Perhaps we need community volunteer organisations or similar schemes to keep people busy, keep people fit and make people feel fulfilled?

Perhaps this is the new world order?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph...-time-jobs.html

It's the second most recommended comment:

There is a following comment which also made me think.

Something like "if machines replace people then who will buy the products?"

But then i thought; you hear lots about people on benefits supposedly living on the poverty line, but then discover they have some massive 52" flat screen TV at home kitted out with an XBOX 360 and Nintendo Wiis for all the kids.

Even nowdays a poor person can easily afford a mobile phone. You can buy a laptop now for £250 brand new, there was a time when a laptop below £1k was unheard of.

What I am trying to get at is that even people with no jobs can still feed the system.

Perhaps a lot of the problems with government debt and worldwide economic collapse is simply down to the fact that humans have made themselves obsolete. The reason the debt route was taken was to try and suppress joblessness by creating public sector jobs, creating the benefits culture and encouraging credit expansion so people spend money on non-essentials such as having their nails painted.

Now the phoney nail-painting economy has collapsed and the public sector has fallen apart, I now believe we are entering a new period of uber high joblessness, but not the SHTF crash that people are predicting.

Perhaps human society has to acknowledge this. Perhaps we need community volunteer organisations or similar schemes to keep people busy, keep people fit and make people feel fulfilled?

Perhaps this is the new world order?

If the robots are as 'clever' as he says they will be - they will unionise and demand fair pay and working conditions!

They will then rise up and trash their 'elite' masters. :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you invest wisely in machinery you can produce a lot more, with better quality with fewer staff. Those machines need maintenance and so do the facilities. Staff are required to man the machines, feed them with raw materials and handle, warehouse and distribute (to some degree) the output of these machines. Also designers are used to create new products which the machines make. Marketing is required to sell the product and accounts/finance to run the monetary side. The facilities and office space will need maintenance, repair and servicing right down to basic cleaning of the bogs.

There still may be less jobs but the economic churn and the jobs associated with manufacturing are considerable.

Alternatively you can run the economy to make the premises untenable for such activity, piss all your capital up the land apreaciation wall and lose some or all of the above. This is the route chosen by the govt. and central bank.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...

Perhaps this is the new world order?

Not if we run out of fossil fuels it isn't. How is an automated production line going to run without electricity? How will we grow enough food without fertilizer?

I don't fully buy the premise that automation is making all these people redundant. It does to some extent but outsourcing is a much bigger factor. They even outsource the machines - e.g. shipping the ex-Rover production machinery out to China!

That's my 2p anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least Women will have the oldest profession in the world to fall back on...............until the invent very fit lifelike sexbots like the ones in Westworld, supermodel looks and bodies and only essex girl levels of intelligence, so it can get you a beer after it "sorted" you out.

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy working in the dairy industry was talking about the Isle of Anglesey. 30 years ago, there were around 1000 milk producers there. Today there are around 25! On many of the larger farms, not restricted to Anglesey, eastern Europeans are employed in the dairies. But, I understand that there is now a dairy which is already being used in a few places which is completely run by robots. Quite frightening really and the repercussions for rural communities employment wise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But then i thought; you hear lots about people on benefits supposedly living on the poverty line, but then discover they have some massive 52" flat screen TV at home kitted out with an XBOX 360 and Nintendo Wiis for all the kids.

Even nowdays a poor person can easily afford a mobile phone. You can buy a laptop now for £250 brand new, there was a time when a laptop below £1k was unheard of.

They're mostly paying far more for electronic gadgets than that, because they're getting them from Brighthouse. Google it, or look at this http://www.consumerwiki.co.uk/index.php/Brighthouse_Fact_Sheet

Or, of course, the gadgets might have fallen off the back of a lorry.

Or come from Cash Converters.

Still, it's all recycling, I suppose. And the owners of the stuff that's nicked may buy new ones, so that keeps the money-go-round turning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the robots are as 'clever' as he says they will be - they will unionise and demand fair pay and working conditions!

They will then rise up and trash their 'elite' masters. :P

so surely you have to have/control a monopoly on the "fuel" for these robots.

in the case of humans this is the basic resources like food and water.

with machines it would be electricity.

so you either need to control the supply of it,or the means to disrupt the smooth distribution to it's required source.

likewise with software protocols,corrupt that and the machines being churned out of the production lines will be jibbering wrecks incapable of doing work.........sounds sooooo like NuLabour's education programme :P

Edited by oracle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy working in the dairy industry was talking about the Isle of Anglesey. 30 years ago, there were around 1000 milk producers there. Today there are around 25! On many of the larger farms, not restricted to Anglesey, eastern Europeans are employed in the dairies. But, I understand that there is now a dairy which is already being used in a few places which is completely run by robots. Quite frightening really and the repercussions for rural communities employment wise.

Check out:

http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/news/Super-dairy-plans-unveiled/article-1802338-detail/article.html

This is so far very unwanted by the NIMBY locals and will drop their house prices due to the smell of sh1t. However, read the basics - 80 jobs 8,000 cows. I suspect many of the milkers will be draw from the Polish community as there are few farm workers in Lincolnshire with cow experience (its mainly big arable). The 80 jobs is a headline grabber - probably nearer 40 when it comes down to it. How many small dairy units will close down as they cannot compete? How many family farms will finally throw in the towel and sell to land speculators?

Agriculture will go the same way as every other industry and only the really big corporations will survive.

I agree with the original premise that humans are not needed any more to create wealth or produce, or at least only in tiny numbers. Shortening the working week to 30 hours is a good start. However the right wing nutters think this is wrong and have tried to block the best efforts of the EU to do it. Most UK employers want their slaves, err sorry workers, to "opt out". No opt out no job.

People need to feel they are doing something worthwhile or they will be troublesome. We need a "job" as we derive social status and meaning from it. Spreading round what work there is is the answer. Lowering retirement age would be another good idea. I note (as usual) the Tories are doing the opposite......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This has obviously been happening for a while, the problem being that most of the surpluses created by increased efficiency go to the elite and not to benefit mankind in general. It has been covered up by welfare, non-jobs, credit and so on, but the trend is clear.

We all need to work less.

The problem and answer are clear, but it is equally clear what will actually happen given the structure of our society.

There is much wisdom in Bertrand Russell's 'In Praise of Idleness' on this subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out:

http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/news/Super-dairy-plans-unveiled/article-1802338-detail/article.html

This is so far very unwanted by the NIMBY locals and will drop their house prices due to the smell of sh1t. However, read the basics - 80 jobs 8,000 cows. I suspect many of the milkers will be draw from the Polish community as there are few farm workers in Lincolnshire with cow experience (its mainly big arable). The 80 jobs is a headline grabber - probably nearer 40 when it comes down to it. How many small dairy units will close down as they cannot compete? How many family farms will finally throw in the towel and sell to land speculators?

Agriculture will go the same way as every other industry and only the really big corporations will survive.

I agree with the original premise that humans are not needed any more to create wealth or produce, or at least only in tiny numbers. Shortening the working week to 30 hours is a good start. However the right wing nutters think this is wrong and have tried to block the best efforts of the EU to do it. Most UK employers want their slaves, err sorry workers, to "opt out". No opt out no job.

People need to feel they are doing something worthwhile or they will be troublesome. We need a "job" as we derive social status and meaning from it. Spreading round what work there is is the answer. Lowering retirement age would be another good idea. I note (as usual) the Tories are doing the opposite......

Err........ no WE don't

And millions of young girls derive social status, a home and free money from having unprotected sex with retards

However, lowering retirement age is a good idea as we are short of jobs for young people - NOT short of young people to do jobs.

:rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The reason the debt route was taken was to try and suppress joblessness by creating public sector jobs, creating the benefits culture and encouraging credit expansion so people spend money on non-essentials such as having their nails painted.

It's an interesting question as to how much the rise of 'non job' both public and private sector was driven by the lack demand for labour in more 'real' areas of the economy.

And with no money left to finance this exercise, is it only now that the true extent of the impact that automation and outsourcing have had on employment are becoming clear?

If it is true that much future work will be either automated or outsourced then we have problem in that the apparent correlation between productivity and the general well being is likely to be revealed not as an inevitable outcome of the free market, but merely an historical quirk caused by a long term labour scarcity that no longer exists- having been automated and outsourced away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the robots are as 'clever' as he says they will be - they will unionise and demand fair pay and working conditions!

They will then rise up and trash their 'elite' masters. :P

Sounds like 1980 again. Exactly the same predictions were made then, ******** then and ******** now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy working in the dairy industry was talking about the Isle of Anglesey. 30 years ago, there were around 1000 milk producers there. Today there are around 25! On many of the larger farms, not restricted to Anglesey, eastern Europeans are employed in the dairies. But, I understand that there is now a dairy which is already being used in a few places which is completely run by robots. Quite frightening really and the repercussions for rural communities employment wise.

Arable had their big headcount reductions years ago 9although i supposse continuing in one way or another - loo how much land can be serviced by two or three farm hands and some big tractors/combines. Having said that the small dairies only probably employed a few people anyway - grinding work, early starts, some farms run single-handed dawn till dusk type job. Even with with very low staff count the way the dairy market has been clobbered by the supermarkets and vagaries of the milk marketing board(s) has probably led to the rapid decline of number of dairy farms. it will be he big dairies that employ the migrant labour, the further up the corporate scale the more oppotunity there is to leverage such a workforce - one reason why the likes of the CBI scream for more at every step - thery are there to represent the big boys and stuff everybody else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least Women will have the oldest profession in the world to fall back on...............until the invent very fit lifelike sexbots like the ones in Westworld, supermodel looks and bodies and only essex girl levels of intelligence, so it can get you a beer after it "sorted" you out.

M

If things go wrong (as in westworld) don't get a blow job.

A mad robot biting it off . . . :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This subject was recently discussed and a free ebook recommended by poster Ken Ichewa called Lightstunnel.

This subject is pretty much the plot of Kurt Vonnegut's novel Player Piano, published in 1952:

"Player Piano, author Kurt Vonnegut's first novel, was published in 1952. It is a dystopia of automation[1] and capitalism, describing the dereliction they cause in the quality of life.[1] The story takes place in a near-future society that is almost totally mechanized, eliminating the need for human laborers. This widespread mechanization creates conflict between the wealthy upper class—the engineers and managers who keep society running—and the lower class, whose skills and purpose in society have been replaced by machines..... "

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If human labour is no longer wanted, then this must mean all the problems human labour solves have now been solved

Perhaps humans could then be employed caring for the young, the sick and the old

Just a crazy off the wall idea.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.