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Captain Cavey

Scotland Bucks House Price Trend

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Starting to sound a wee bit ranty about the BBC, but they really do get a big stiff one on if theres a HPI VI press release that they can issue verbatim.

The latest headline news:

13 September 2010 Last updated at 23:18 GMT

Scotland bucks house price trend

House prices in Scotland are expected to rise for the next few months Scotland is the only part of the UK where a continued upward trend is expected in house prices, according to figures from surveyors.

They said there was a modest rise in average house prices in July and August.

Surveyors' organisation RICS Scotland said it was hard to predict what would happen in the longer term.

In the UK as a whole, house prices have fallen for the second month in succession.

Surveyors expect prices to rise in Scotland over the next three months, the only part of the UK where this will happen.

Sarah Speirs, deputy director of RICS Scotland, said: "What we are reporting is a levelling out of the Scottish market which puts us at odds with the rest of the UK.

"Demand is starting to weaken but prices being supported by continued falls in supply."

She added: "Surveyors in Scotland are confident that prices will rise moderately over the next three months.

"However, the situation as ever is fluid and highly dependent on the scale of public sector spending cuts and the performance of the wider economy"

Anyone got time to look at the figures to see how modest the modest rise is?

Edited by Captain Cavey

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are expected to rise

upward trend is expected

Surveyors expect prices to rise

"Demand is starting to weaken

Surveyors in Scotland are confident that prices will rise

highly dependent on the scale of public sector spending cuts

Scotland bucks house price trend ?

no dont think so !

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are expected to rise

upward trend is expected

Surveyors expect prices to rise

"Demand is starting to weaken

Surveyors in Scotland are confident that prices will rise

highly dependent on the scale of public sector spending cuts

Scotland bucks house price trend ?

no dont think so !

Exactly: a complete non-story. Isn't the function of a news reporting organisation to report on the news (ie facts) rather than regurgitate unsubstantiated press releases about how someone hopes sales will go. At the very least, a good editorial comment wouldn't go amiss...

:angry:

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Starting to sound a wee bit ranty about the BBC, but they really do get a big stiff one on if there’s a HPI VI press release that they can issue verbatim.

The latest headline news:

Anyone got time to look at the figures to see how modest the modest rise is?

There will always be some high price properties selling that buck the trend and skew the averages but in my wee corner of god's own there is a huge oversupply, properties are not shifting and asking prices dropping across the board now by 4-6%.

Whats working for HPC'ers in Scotland is that the popular press is largely controlled from England and so we're getting the doom and gloom headlines here as well. I think thats having an impact. I've even used that myself against estate agents - the best example lately was when I was called up again after 6 weeks to find out if I still "liked" a property I'd viewed (and never even expressed an interest - just said I liked it) and I mentioned that we were spooked by the press and the TV news being full of houseprice crash articles.

"Don't mind those" said the wee estate wifey " thats England, they are always 6 months ahead of us..". My reply " so that means if I buy now I'll be in negative equity in 6 months - gee thanks for the advice not to buy - cheerio!".

Love those types of calls.

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Exactly: a complete non-story. Isn't the function of a news reporting organisation to report on the news (ie facts) rather than regurgitate unsubstantiated press releases about how someone hopes sales will go. At the very least, a good editorial comment wouldn't go amiss...

:angry:

Unfortunately news organisations, BBC included, don’t have the resources nowadays for reporters to be able to go out and gather any real news. Regurgitating press releases is cheap and fills the pages.

The book Flat Earth News by Nick Davies attempts to explain the changes that have occurred in journalism over the last thirty years or so, including the rise and rise of ‘churnalism’. It’s worth a read if you’re interested in that sort of thing.

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"Surveyors expect prices to rise in Scotland over the next three months"

"What we are reporting is a levelling out of the Scottish market which puts us at odds with the rest of the UK."

"Demand is starting to weaken but prices being supported by continued falls in supply."

"Surveyors in Scotland are confident that prices will rise moderately over the next three months"

Exactly how is 'levelling off' rising ?

Continued falls in supply ?! Well that is just nonsense, for Edinburgh and the Lothians at least.

Honestly what a load of drivel.

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Report itself.

http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7443&fileExtension=PDF

Scotland has a figure of -4 for the last 3 months. So more see prices dropping in the last 3 months than rising. When you 'seasonally' adjust it however it shows a very slight rise.

Sales expectations are also down for the next 3 months. Price expectation are up slightly. The comments from the Scottish reps are very bearish.

New buyer enquiries are down almost 20%. New agreed sales are up in the last month though.

In short - taking this entire survey as anything 'positive' or bullish is completely biased. Not a great surprise but it is getting a little boring.

At least Reporting Scotland didn't add to it this morning. I was quite surprised by that.

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Results of last 3 month prices of Jul 2010 survey > compared to Aug 2010 survey.

Same Prices - 64% > 79%

Fall in price - 7% > 12%

Rise in price - 21% > 9%

Mmmm - now what does this show ? Prices are moving towards falling rather than rising. It is not exactly rocket science.

Hillbilly - you are spot on with that. They just churn the same shit over and over again. You have to do your own research to have any idea of what is really happening.

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BBC did exactly the same in NI until the figures could no longer be spun to their satisfaction then they stopped talking about it unless it was an upward blip.

Already happened here. Exactly the same. I imagine they will just follow the same plan this time again.

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The upcoming government cuts are expected to provide a huge boost to the housing market in Scotland which is heavily reliant on the public sector.

Wages are increasing above inflation in Scotland allowing housing prices in the area to continue to increase.

That's my "expert" opinion.

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The upcoming government cuts are expected to provide a huge boost to the housing market in Scotland which is heavily reliant on the public sector.

Wages are increasing above inflation in Scotland allowing housing prices in the area to continue to increase.

That's my "expert" opinion.

You should sell your wares to the Scotsman and BBC.

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Starting to sound a wee bit ranty about the BBC, but they really do get a big stiff one on if there’s a HPI VI press release that they can issue verbatim.

The latest headline news:

Anyone got time to look at the figures to see how modest the modest rise is?

I'm now so tired of the BBC news reporting. It's too preachy and so predictable. They don't report the news. OK maybe 5% is the news, and the 95% is them telling you how to interpret that 5% of news.

And the BBC Scotland's reporting especially:

'gotta love high house prices in Scotland no matter what, gotta love high house prices in Scotland, etc...'.

It wears me out.

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As an estate agent I am getting really hacked off with these BBC stories. I don't know how the figures are being skewed to show price rises but I'm not seeing them. There is a huge number of properties on the market, hardly any buyers because people are afraid for their jobs but mainly they can't get mortgages because the banks want to keep their money under the mattress.

So you get these stories and sellers eyes light up. Be realistic with them and they don't want to know and go to an agent who tells them what they want to hear and miraculously gets them a home report value to match. 6 months later realism hits. A good property in a good area realistically priced will still sell well but there are too many mediocre properties that are overpriced. I don't necessarily want lots of doom and gloom just realism would be nice.

I am in Fife but I am hearing the same stories from many other areas including Edinburgh.

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As an estate agent I am getting really hacked off with these BBC stories. I don't know how the figures are being skewed to show price rises but I'm not seeing them. There is a huge number of properties on the market, hardly any buyers because people are afraid for their jobs but mainly they can't get mortgages because the banks want to keep their money under the mattress.

So you get these stories and sellers eyes light up. Be realistic with them and they don't want to know and go to an agent who tells them what they want to hear and miraculously gets them a home report value to match. 6 months later realism hits. A good property in a good area realistically priced will still sell well but there are too many mediocre properties that are overpriced. I don't necessarily want lots of doom and gloom just realism would be nice.

I am in Fife but I am hearing the same stories from many other areas including Edinburgh.

Cheers for the info. They must be doing your head in !!

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As an estate agent I am getting really hacked off with these BBC stories. I don't know how the figures are being skewed to show price rises but I'm not seeing them. There is a huge number of properties on the market, hardly any buyers because people are afraid for their jobs but mainly they can't get mortgages because the banks want to keep their money under the mattress.

So you get these stories and sellers eyes light up. Be realistic with them and they don't want to know and go to an agent who tells them what they want to hear and miraculously gets them a home report value to match. 6 months later realism hits. A good property in a good area realistically priced will still sell well but there are too many mediocre properties that are overpriced. I don't necessarily want lots of doom and gloom just realism would be nice.

I am in Fife but I am hearing the same stories from many other areas including Edinburgh.

You need to get hacked off with RICS as well because they feed the BBC these stories.

Lower prices = more sales = more commission for estate agents (I think some estate agents realise that)

Lower prices = more sales = more work for surveyors (Why do RICS not see this at all or are home report refreshes on unsold properties a nice little earner? So they aren't bothered whether properties sell or not?)

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8034438/UK-house-prices-fall-in-most-regions.html

House prices fell in nine out of thirteen UK regions in the third quarter as the pace of growth turned negative for the first time since May last year, the Nationwide said ... Scotland was the worst performing region with prices falling 3.4pc

Good to see the 'experts' getting it so wrong once again. :lol:

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http://www.telegraph...st-regions.html

House prices fell in nine out of thirteen UK regions in the third quarter as the pace of growth turned negative for the first time since May last year, the Nationwide said ... Scotland was the worst performing region with prices falling 3.4pc

Good to see the 'experts' getting it so wrong once again. :lol:

I didn't see Reporting tonight - but I assume this wasn't mentioned ?

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I didn't see Reporting tonight - but I assume this wasn't mentioned ?

Predictably enough the only reports on the BBC news website re Nationwide figures are both of the prices up variety

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11437915

30 September 2010 Last updated at 10:48

House prices rose slightly in September, says Nationwide

and

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11443742

30 September 2010 Last updated at 11:05

'Slight rise' in NI house prices, says Nationwide

Zilcho on BBC Scotland News about Scottish house prices falling. :angry:

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Even the Hootsmon reports the data. I presume BBC Scotland are still sulking.

Published Date: 01 October 2010

By JEFF SALWAY

PERSONAL FINANCE EDITOR

EXPERTS have warned of a prolonged slump in the Scottish housing market after new figures showed that house prices are falling at a faster rate north of the Border than elsewhere in the UK.

There was a 3.4 per cent slip in the average house price in Scotland in the three months to the end of September, according to the latest Nationwide quarterly house price index. The average price of £139,313 is 0.6 per cent lower than a year ago, despite year-on-year growth of 8 per cent in Aberdeenshire, 7 per cent in Southern Scotland and 6 per cent in Edinburgh.

Prices have fallen in areas with the highest unemployment, most notably in Lothian and Falkirk and Dundee and Angus.

The Nationwide also published monthly house price figures yesterday showing a 0.1 per cent increase in September, following falls of 0.8 and 0.5 per cent in August and July respectively. UK house prices are now 3.1 per cent higher than a year ago, compared with 10.5 per cent in April.

News of Scottish house price falls over the last three months comes on the back of several downbeat housing reports. The number of mortgages approved by members of the British Bankers' Association reached its lowest level in August since April 2009, while the Council of Mortgage Lenders said lending for the month reached a ten-year low.

And the Bank of England yesterday said demand for house purchase mortgages dropped in the three months to early September. Its latest credit conditions survey found that lending criteria is likely to continue tightening for the remainder of 2010 as lenders steer clear of first-time buyers without substantial deposits.

Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Nationwide, said that where house prices go next would depend on the extent to which sellers drop their asking prices in order to secure a sale.

If sellers are in no rush to sell there will be little change in prices, although activity levels would continue to drop.

"If, on the other hand, most of the new sellers in the market are keen to sell more quickly, then the recent slight downward trend in prices may continue," Mr Gahbauer added.

But Matthew Sinclair, director of Saint Property, said sellers in Scotland were already lowering their price expectations.

"More properties are coming to the market, but they are taking longer to sell, so prices are being reduced. We are seeing more fixed prices, including some below their home report valuations, which is a sign of the market slowing down."

Mr Sinclair said confidence in the Scottish property market was being drained by the widespread job cuts anticipated over the coming months and the prevailing economic uncertainty.

"We are in for a prolonged period of uncertainty and of static prices at best.

It comes down to confidence and these figures suggest the confidence is coming out of the Scottish market," he said.

His comments echo those of Alex Neil, Scotland's housing minister, who last month warned of a storm ahead in the Scottish housing market as mortgage restrictions prevent first-time buyers from getting on the housing ladder.

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Cheers for that.

Seems reality is very slowly gaining a foothold. When the BBC start getting it then we know the game is really up.

I would love to know exactly where their angle on this comes from. Individuals at the top with serious interests/investments in the market ? Or other forces ?

Or are they just so brainwashed into thinking that <high prices = good> that they try to hide the 'bad' news for all of our 'benefit' ?

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"Alex Neil, Scotland's housing minister, who last month warned of a storm ahead in the Scottish housing market as mortgage restrictions prevent first-time buyers from getting on the housing ladder."

Point #1 - This has been obvious for years. Surely a Housing Minister should know this stuff ahead of us chumps like us on this website.

Point #2 - Another person who fails to note (Or just doesn't want to admit) that prices are a problem.

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Still seeing stuck up sellers in nice houses keeping prices at 2007 levels... it's gonna take some real bad news for those nice properties to fall in value. Everybody seems to believe the 'Edinburgh is different' line - more so than the 'houses always go up' line.

Just read that article - good stuff. Love the comment about city centre flat costing £70k. A dream I'd love to see come true.

Friend of mine who just a month ago started to agree about overpriced housing is now saying he wants to move to Dunbar before house prices start rising again.

I hope for an absolutely catastrophic crash.

EDIT - I think this story actually merits a separate topic, even on the main board!?

Edited by guitarman001

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At the very least, a good editorial comment wouldn't go amiss...

:angry:

....no...this would affect the advertising revenues ....the newspapers are VIs for obvious reasons..... :rolleyes:

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  • 200 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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