Rics - House Price Balance

[exiges]

Bears tuck in !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11288763

A bigger proportion of surveyors are expecting house prices to fall in the coming months than at any time since March last year.

Some 38% more of those asked, in the survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), expected prices to fall rather than rise in the next three months.

They said that property values fell for the second consecutive month in August.

Scotland was the only part of the UK to buck the downward trend in prices.

Edited September 13, 2010 by exiges

[The Masked Tulip]

I think the BBC headline of:

House prices: Surveyors expect property values to fall

...would have been better for the thread title

[exiges]

An increasing number of surveyors are seeing house prices fall and predict further falls ahead, according to the latest RICS house market survey.

The seasonally adjusted headline net price balance slipped to -32% in August from -8% in July, the second consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since May 2009, as a trend of increasing supply and dwindling demand continued to undermine prices last month.

The lower new instruction balance, which this month fell to a net 12% from July's 33%, suggests that the initial surge in supply following the abolition of Home Information Packs has started to fade, according to RICS.

The average number of unsold properties on surveyors' books slipped to 67.8 from 69. The average number of sales per surveyor over the three month through August rose to 16.7 from 16.6, holding at an upwardly round 17 for the third consecutive month. As a result, the sales to stock ratio - an indicator of market slack - edged up to 24.7% from 24% prior.

Price expectations continued to deteriorate, with the net balance for the next three months falling from -28% to -38%, hitting its lowest level since March 2009.

The softer trend in prices appears to be fuelling a pick up in sales expectations with the net balance for this series rebounding from 8 to 18, its highest level since May.

Commenting on the data, RICS spokesperson, Jeremy Leaf said:

"The latest set of results suggest prices in many parts of the country may be slipping but this does appear to be encouraging hopes amongst surveyors that sales levels could begin to pick up as a result."

"That said, there can be little doubt that the restrictive attitude to the provision of mortgage finance will continue to limit transaction activity in the market. Looking forward, our price indicators are telling a mixed story which is consistent with the uncertainty hanging over the economy, the low level of interest rates and the lack of new house building."

[marmite]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11288763

House prices: Surveyors expect property values to fall

A bigger proportion of surveyors are expecting house prices to fall in the coming months than at any time since March last year.

Some 38% more of those asked, in the survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), expected prices to fall rather than rise in the next three months.

They said that property values fell for the second consecutive month in August.

Scotland was the only part of the UK to buck the downward trend in prices.

The Rics survey has a relatively small sample size of 259 professionals, but has mirrored many of the other polls on house prices.

They said that the drop in prices was the result of a combination of more sellers returning to the market but less interest from buyers.

"The latest set of results suggest prices in many parts of the country may be slipping but this does appear to be encouraging hopes amongst surveyors that sales levels could begin to pick up as a result," said Rics spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

"Looking forward, our price indicators are telling a mixed story which is consistent with the uncertainty hanging over the economy, the low level of interest rates and the lack of new house building."

[Pauly_Boy]

38%, wow thats a massive change since last month, which was about 10-15% in think!

Just need to wait for the PDF, haven't been able to find it on their website yet.

[Pauly_Boy]

The BBC said:

Well clearly wrong then (unlike previous months). Next!

Yeah, they never mentioned that when it was indicating an increase!

[Pent Up]

Looking good...

[Captain Cavey]

Predominantly cut’n’paste as usually, but I see this time the perceptive probing journalists at the BBC have delved deep and come up with this shrewd opinion piece:

"Property prices can differ depending on location"

[Pent Up]

38%, wow thats a massive change since last month, which was about 10-15% in think!

Just need to wait for the PDF, haven't been able to find it on their website yet.

Last month was -8%

The PDF is released at 11:30am

[interestrateripoff]

But what about the recovery?

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

Northern Ireland headline

House prices fell each month for 3 years - some areas 60% drop

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11286919

Why have prices fallen so far over there but not so much on the mainland?

Edited September 14, 2010 by FaFa!

[OnlyMe]

Why have prices fallen so far over there but not so much on the mainland?

Driven even further by the bubble mentality in Southern Ireland and money leaking across the boarder.

[Kyoto]

Northern Ireland headline

House prices fell each month for 3 years - some areas 60% drop

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11286919

Killer Bunny on the Nolan show on Radio Ulster to discuss this at 9.45am

Link later to podcast.

How much bearier can you get???

And yet they are still overpriced!

[moonriver]

I saw this reported as one of the leading news items on ITV's "Daybreak", 8am news .

So there should be plenty of viewers watching at that time n the morning.

To sum up they said that house have dropped in all parts of the country except Scotland, for the 2nd month in a row, due to the rise in the number of properties for sale, and a drop in interest from buyers.

It is worst in East Anglia, they said, due to oversupply. They had a reporter standing on the waterfront at Ipswich, illustrating some of the massive redevelopement there.

Then had a man on, saying he was struggling to sell his Victorian semi in Norwich.

The surveryor they questioned said Scotland seemed to be different because there was not as much property coming onto the market there, so demand was "fairly strong".

Then they ended the report by saying "Lower prices elsewhere have not resulted in a rise in sales."

Not sure what they mean by that last statement?

I am guessing they mean that properties in areas other than Scotland, are still not selling, even if they have reduced their prices.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

The prices quite literally doubled in 2 years. I've been banging on about this for some time. Prices in NI went to London prices in a very short time fed by mewing from over inflated Southern Irish property and cheap euro loans.

FTBs frozen out of the market or if they did buy in horrific negative equity now. Saying that I see houses all around me still on sale after 3 years at 2007 prices.

I see. Cheers for that

[exiges]

Why have prices fallen so far over there but not so much on the mainland?

The mainland has SMI, without it there would be at least another 250,000 properties on the market.

Edited September 14, 2010 by exiges

[Lepista]

The mainland has SMI, without it there would be at least another 250,000 properties on the market.

OT, does anybody know how much has been spent on SMI to date?

[Mega]

After the 7% lift in Mortages i was a bit down, NOW am right back up again !

[exiges]

OT, does anybody know how much has been spent on SMI to date?

The average payment is £49 a week (£2500 p.a) and there are 225,000 claimaints (as of last report)

So £573,000,000 each year.

[Lepista]

The average payment is £49 a week (£2500 p.a) and there are 225,000 claimaints (as of last report)

So £573,000,000 each year.

So if that's true, then it's not really that much of a prop.

[The Masked Tulip]

Wales

Andrew Morgan FRICS, Morgan &

Davies, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 01570

423623 - Many properties remaining on

the market unsold after the summer. Only

those keenest to sell with discounted

prices achieving the desired result.

David James FRICS, James Dean,

Brecon, Powys, 01874 624757 - Many

more new instructions than last year,

same number of purchasers - will lead to

lower prices

David K. Jones FRICS, Jones &

Redfearn, Rhyl, Denbighshire, 01745

351111 - There are signs of improvement

in market activity but first time buyers and

investors still finding it hard to confirm

funding. The market needs time to

consolidate and then hopefully the worst

is behind us. Talk of increasing interest

rates and double dip recessions is not

helping. 'Foolish talk costs sales!'

David Owen Evans FRICS, Russell

Baldwin & Bright, Rhayader, Powys,

01597 810457 - Abolishing HIPs has

generated more property instructions.

David W Pearse FRICS, David W Pearse

& Co., Mold, Flintshire, 01352 700274 -

Increasing bad news reported in media is

creating increasing concern for house

buyers, although reasonable sales rates

are being maintained in this area.

John Nicholas MRICS, J.J.Morris,

Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, 01437

760 440 - An increase in the supply of

properties onto the open market has been

seen over the last few weeks but there

appears to be very few active buyers in

the market place. Acquiring appropriate

finance still remains an issue with

mortgage companies 'dragging their feet'

which has led to sales falling through.

Kelvin Francis FRICS, Kelvin Francis &

Co., Cardiff, South Glamorgan, 029 2076

6538 - More vendors are listing their

properties, in anticipation of an improving

market in September. However, August

has proved surprisingly busy, with not only

properties coming onto the market but

also numerous sales being agreed.

Buyers have a wide selection to choose

from, but more importantly, are buying. If

mortgage lenders will ease their lending

criteria, particularly in relation to the

percentage required for a deposit, the

market should continue and grow.

Paul Lucas FRICS, R.K.Lucas & Son,

Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, 01437

762538 - Following a reasonably busy

spring the residential property market has

begun to significantly slow down once

again. Agents are crying out for the

Government to put more pressure on the

major banks to ease their lending policies

which are beginning to have dire

consequences.

Robert Wilkins MRICS, Newland Rennie

Wilkins, Newport, Wales, 01633 221441 -

An oversupply of available properties

combined with the uncertainty of the

market has led to a fall in prices over the

last three months.

[exiges]

So if that's true, then it's not really that much of a prop.

It's 225,000 houses that could otherwise be on the market.

£200 a month to many people is the difference between sinking and swimming.

[The Masked Tulip]

House prices fall in surge of properties put up for sale

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/09/14/house-prices-fall-in-surge-of-properties-put-up-for-sale-91466-27261351/

HOUSE prices in Wales have fallen for the second consecutive month after a surge of properties were put on the market, according to a report released today.

But the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors also said the latest survey was encouraging for its members who felt that the drop could soon see sales pick up.

The report reveals 30% more Welsh chartered surveyors recorded a fall in prices – the biggest negative reading since May 2009 – a trend which has been put down to a combination of more houses up for sale and a moderation in demand from buyers.

It comes as another report by the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed the mortgage market remained weak during July despite a slight rise in the number of loans advanced to people buying a home.

However, the RICS survey claims more Welsh chartered surveyors are expecting a rise rather than a fall in sales in the coming months due to the belief that a dip in house prices will begin to tempt more buyers back to the market.

This is despite 49% more chartered surveyors reporting a fall rather than rise in newly agreed sales in August compared with last month’s survey which saw 31% more reporting a rise rather than a fall.

Yeah, right - I am expecting Jennifer Anniston, Kelly Brook and Shakira to knock on my door any minute now and perform a threesome for my pleasure.

New instructions, which indicate supply to the market, showed 21% more surveyors reporting a rise, down from last month’s reading of 39%.

While buyer demand, measured by new buyer inquiries, was also at its lowest reading since January 2010.

The average number of transactions per Welsh agency also remained unchanged at 12 while properties on surveyors’ books fell slightly, taking the figure to 114, the highest figure of all regions in the UK. As a result, the sales to stock ratio – a key indicator of future house price inflation dipped slightly at 10%.

Despite the report’s findings Nigel Jones, director of John Francis Estate Agency which has offices across West Wales, said the market was suffering nothing more than a seasonal blip.

“We have found that the property market in Swansea and West Wales has been remarkably resilient, with as much as 50% more properties on the market in some areas and sales increasing on last year despite this marked increase.

“The report refers to 30% more surveyors in Wales reporting prices falling in August as being the lowest since May 2009 but, conversely, we have not seen the drastic rises since then that have been reported since this time.

“Yes, there has been a slowdown in activity over the last month, but nothing more than what you would expect in August, although the slowdown did hit a little earlier this year due to the emergency budget.”

He added: “We have already found that activity has picked up in September, and we expect October to continue in this vein, before dropping in November and December. These trends are cyclical, and nothing out of the ordinary.”

[The Masked Tulip]

Wales does not look good TMT. Patience.

Thanks - the charts/figures are completely different to the EA comments which, alas, are widely reported in the Welsh meeja this morning.

Edit:

So completed sales has fallen off the table in Wales and the numbers of new buyers has also dropped off the table at the same time? Plus Wales has the lowest number of surveyor completed sales... but I don't get the chart re the fall in property prices (Propertty Prices, Past 3 Months) not just in Wales but across the UK - is that graph really saying that surveyors across the UK, except in Scotland, all showed a massive drop in completed prices in the last 3 months?

Edited September 14, 2010 by The Masked Tulip

[The Masked Tulip]

Has anyone noticed anything strange about Scotland? Are the estate agents there particularly intransigent?

That thread posted over the weekend, from The Scotsman, about Lloyds thinking about off-loading a 100 million property portfolio in Edinburgh that it inherited from HBOS - apparently it now owns several other such companies that RBS/HBOS invested in in Scotland - could be the reason.

Looks like Lloyds owns a sizeable chunk of Scottish real estate now and until Lloyds off-loads I guess there will be a shortage of property?