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Buffett: No Double Dip

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Buffett-Rules-Out-DoubleDip-bloomberg-2228875511.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Buffett Rules Out Double-Dip Recession Amid Growth
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BRK-A 124,610.00 +633.00
Andrew "Andy" Frye and Kelly Bit, On Monday September 13, 2010, 1:14 pm EDT
Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.
“I am a huge bull on this country,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, said today in remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit. “We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”

If Warren is right its time to buy stocks. If he is wrong it will be unusual.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Buffett-Rules-Out-DoubleDip-bloomberg-2228875511.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Buffett Rules Out Double-Dip Recession Amid Growth
.
BRK-A 124,610.00 +633.00
Andrew "Andy" Frye and Kelly Bit, On Monday September 13, 2010, 1:14 pm EDT
Warren Buffett ruled out a second recession in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing.
“I am a huge bull on this country,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, said today in remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit. “We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”

Isn't he big into Coke, MacDs, KFC and Dominos pizzas - all stuff that does well in recessions?

If Warren is right its time to buy stocks. If he is wrong it will be unusual.

.

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One of the largest, if not the largest stock market crash on record - 2008.

One of the largest GDP contractions - 2008

One of the longest recessions recorded - 2007-2010

There is no emperical basis for a 'double dip' so soon after the last. 3-5 years away, sure another recession but straight away? Low probability based on history.

Rather a slow U shaped or L shaped recovery.

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One of the largest, if not the largest stock market crash on record - 2008.

One of the largest GDP contractions - 2008

One of the longest recessions recorded - 2007-2010

There is no emperical basis for a 'double dip' so soon after the last. 3-5 years away, sure another recession but straight away? Low probability based on history.

Rather a slow U shaped or L shaped recovery.

So you can accurately predict the future from the past?

If we are going to talk about history please tell me the last time the worlds central banks all cut the base rates together and what was the outcome eventually.

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We have entered uncharted territory that's for sure.

However, with hindsight it was the banks concerted effort to get the stock market going again over here which helped kick off the from the past.

It is possible the powers that be do the same again is it not?

The stock market is almost entirely fake now - little real money being invested, lots of high frequency trading, beginning of day trading, end of day trading, pensions disappearng, savings getting wiped out and a backdrop of artificial low rates driving this fool's market.

Bonds, stocks and property - megalomaniac monetary policy is polluting everything, I don;t know how but the symmetrical conclusion is at this rate everything is going to fail as a result.

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"I am a huge bull on this country," Buffett, Berkshire's chief executive officer, said today in remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit. "We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board."

If Warren is right its time to buy stocks. If he is wrong it will be unusual.

We have known he is an optimist since Berkshire sold a massive put option on the S&P500 a couple of years ago. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/18/18382/derivatives-and-the-wisdom-of-the-sage

I don't see how it follows that right now is a good time to buy stocks. At best it might be a less bad time than before he said than things were getting better. The entire new information is that there is a short-term uptick in the US economy. You have no way of knowing whether it is priced-in already or not. He probably won't tell you when it's a good time to sell, because that would likely be against his interests.

The fact of the matter is that there is anemic growth on the back of the biggest outbreak of deficit spending ever, the banking system is still a ticking timebomb (except now the banks are bigger and there are fewer of them), and we are a lot closer to a GIPSI defaulting on sovereign debt than at any time except maybe shortly before the Greek bailout. Could anything possibly go wrong?

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We have known he is an optimist since Berkshire sold a massive put option on the S&P500 a couple of years ago. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/18/18382/derivatives-and-the-wisdom-of-the-sage

I don't see how it follows that right now is a good time to buy stocks. At best it might be a less bad time than before he said than things were getting better. The entire new information is that there is a short-term uptick in the US economy. You have no way of knowing whether it is priced-in already or not. He probably won't tell you when it's a good time to sell, because that would likely be against his interests.

The fact of the matter is that there is anemic growth on the back of the biggest outbreak of deficit spending ever, the banking system is still a ticking timebomb (except now the banks are bigger and there are fewer of them), and we are a lot closer to a GIPSI defaulting on sovereign debt than at any time except maybe shortly before the Greek bailout. Could anything possibly go wrong?

When did the PIIGS become GIPSI - and why?

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I'm sure that Buffet's companies are growing and that things seem quite rosy in many of them, but he knows as well as anyone that the whole system is being propped with funny money. I think the only conclusion we can draw is that he believes, in the short term at least, that that situation is not going to change.

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When did the PIIGS become GIPSI - and why?

Some of the PIIGS presumably did not like being called that, so someone on FT Alphaville suggested GIPSI as an alternative. I certainly don't want to offend anyone, so prefer to use the politically correct variant.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/05/142451/anything-but-porcine-at-barcap/

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  • 200 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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