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mrpleasant

If You're Hapi And You Know It...

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http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_SEP10.pdf

It's only asking prices, but we like it.

This is a wierd one. According to this prices never bounced back after the first falls. Still another negative is all good.

The analysis on that report is gloomy as hell! Can someone post the comment part at the end? (can't copy from PDF on IPhone) it's good reading :lol:

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This is a wierd one. According to this prices never bounced back after the first falls. Still another negative is all good.

The analysis on that report is gloomy as hell! Can someone post the comment part at the end? (can't copy from PDF on IPhone) it's good reading :lol:

Pretty much reflective of what has happened in my market in the South West, not massive falls in 08 followed by an imperceptible "bounce".

I know the owner of Home.co.uk and know he has no vested interest in whether prices are falling or rising, the banks and the politicians on the other hand....

Edited by Confounded

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The analysis on that report is gloomy as hell! Can someone post the comment part at the end? (can't copy from PDF on IPhone) it's good reading :lol:

How Deep Will This Second Dip Be?
The combination of increased supply, reduced buyer activity and restricted mortgage availability is bringing about a second dip in asking prices. The pertinent questions now are: how long will this falling market last and how deep will it go? During the course of the first price drop, from March 08 to April 09, asking prices fell 7.5%. This fall was arrested by extraordinary stimulus measures, bank bailouts and the imposition of the lowest Bank of England base rate in the history of the UK central bank. The unprecedented level of intervention in the UK financial markets ‘worked’ for a while – in as much as property prices stopped falling and UK banks are still trading. However, such was the scale of public borrowing required to ‘stabilise’ the system of credit, it was soon clear that this approach was unsustainable. The new coalition government is now in the very difficult position of huge public debt on the one hand and a floundering economy on the other. Their only recourse to balance the books and to ease pressure on the UK government credit rating has been to attempt to cut public spending and raise taxes where possible. Clearly this new fiscal policy direction will have negative consequences for the UK housing market. A reduction in consumer confidence is already evident and fears of further house price falls will make banks even more reluctant to lend to prospective homebuyers.
The corollary for UK asking prices going forward is that one can expect falls of at least the same magnitude as seen before. However, the precise depth and
duration of the next ‘leg down’ will depend on several factors.
1. GDP growth: If economic output picks up then this will help stem the decline in prices, although most economic indicators suggest this is doubtful.
2. Sterling: Weaker sterling would help encourage foreign investment in property and the wider economy. Unfortunately the currencies of the UK’s major trading partners, the Euro and Dollar, are also weak.
3. Interest rates: Interest rates must rise at some point. When this will occur is difficult to predict, but when they do, mortgages and therefore housing will become less affordable.
4. Mortgage availability: Deposit requirements are likely to remain high and risk premiums may well increase thereby raising the overall cost for homebuyers.

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Pretty much reflective of what has happened in my market in the South West, not massive falls in 08 followed by an imperceptible "bounce".

I know the owner of Home.co.uk and know he has no vested interest in weather prices are falling or rising, the banks and the politicians on the other hand....

Thats true. I've looked at land reg data for many areas of the north of england which have basically stagnated since falling in 2008.

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How Deep Will This Second Dip Be?
The combination of increased supply, reduced buyer activity and restricted mortgage availability is bringing about a second dip in asking prices. The pertinent questions now are: how long will this falling market last and how deep will it go? During the course of the first price drop, from March 08 to April 09, asking prices fell 7.5%. This fall was arrested by extraordinary stimulus measures, bank bailouts and the imposition of the lowest Bank of England base rate in the history of the UK central bank. The unprecedented level of intervention in the UK financial markets ‘worked’ for a while – in as much as property prices stopped falling and UK banks are still trading. However, such was the scale of public borrowing required to ‘stabilise’ the system of credit, it was soon clear that this approach was unsustainable. The new coalition government is now in the very difficult position of huge public debt on the one hand and a floundering economy on the other. Their only recourse to balance the books and to ease pressure on the UK government credit rating has been to attempt to cut public spending and raise taxes where possible. Clearly this new fiscal policy direction will have negative consequences for the UK housing market. A reduction in consumer confidence is already evident and fears of further house price falls will make banks even more reluctant to lend to prospective homebuyers.
The corollary for UK asking prices going forward is that one can expect falls of at least the same magnitude as seen before.
However, the precise depth and
duration of the next ‘leg down’ will depend on several factors.
1. GDP growth: If economic output picks up then this will help stem the decline in prices, although most economic indicators suggest this is doubtful.
2. Sterling: Weaker sterling would help encourage foreign investment in property and the wider economy. Unfortunately the currencies of the UK’s major trading partners, the Euro and Dollar, are also weak.
3. Interest rates: Interest rates must rise at some point. When this will occur is difficult to predict, but when they do, mortgages and therefore housing will become less affordable.
4. Mortgage availability: Deposit requirements are likely to remain high and risk premiums may well increase thereby raising the overall cost for homebuyers.

Love it! Thanks yellerkat.

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Pretty much reflective of what has happened in my market in the South West, not massive falls in 08 followed by an imperceptible "bounce".

I know the owner of Home.co.uk and know he has no vested interest in weather prices

Yow! How do they manage to charge for weather? :ph34r:

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This is massive news, now that prices have slipped i can see alot of investors who were cannily waiting on the sidelines piling in to take advantage , you could well see an increase of houseprices of up to 50% over the next year because of this

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This is massive news, now that prices have slipped i can see alot of investors who were cannily waiting on the sidelines piling in to take advantage , you could well see an increase of houseprices of up to 50% over the next year because of this

Oh no not more 'canny' investors 'snapping up' bargains! ;)

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Although asking prices are very divorced from actual selling prices, I see a fall in these indexes as very bearish.

It's a good indicator of sentiment, and it's rare a seller will achieve more than the initial asking price.

September Rightmove is shaping up to be a key report.

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Although asking prices are very divorced from actual selling prices, I see a fall in these indexes as very bearish.

It's a good indicator of sentiment, and it's rare a seller will achieve more than the initial asking price.

September Rightmove is shaping up to be a key report.

Remember rightmove is not seasonally adjusted and prices nearly always rise in September according to them. Also it's a very erratic index and can show a big rise in a heavily falling Market and vice versa. So don't be surprised if it's a positive figure.

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Remember rightmove is not seasonally adjusted and prices nearly always rise in September according to them. Also it's a very erratic index and can show a big rise in a heavily falling Market and vice versa. So don't be surprised if it's a positive figure.

I agree. It will almost certainly show positive for London because there were some very chunky drops last month and it tends to be quite volatile.

This home.co.uk survey is interesting because it normally only shows very small increases/decreases. -0.5% is very big for them and the -1.9% in Scotland is hilarious (the jocks are as bad as Londoners for the "it's different here" bolux).

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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